As Selection Sunday nears, it's a huge week for bubble teams (cont.)

SEC

Chandler Parsons and Florida are not a lock yet and have a tough week with Vanderbilt and Kentucky. AP

Locks: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

No reason to wait on the Vols anymore after the convincing upset of Kentucky. What else goes on in this conference should be really interesting.

SHOULD BE IN

None

IN THE MIX

Florida (20-9, 9-5, RPI: 46, SOS: 44) got a huge win over Tennessee and then tossed it back by losing at Georgia by a deuce. Florida likely needs to beat Vandy at home because the finale is at irked Kentucky. Lose both, and the Gators very well will need to make the SEC semis. Stay tuned.
GW: Michigan St. (N), Florida St., plus Miss St. and at Miss (bubble purposes).
BL: South Alabama; at Georgia.

Mississippi State (21-8, 9-5, RPI: 57, SOS: 116) took big steps toward solidifying a spot in the dance by winning twice more. The Bulldogs need to get past Auburn before a bid-icing home shot vs. Tennessee on Saturday.
GW: Old Dominion, sweep of Ole Miss.
BL: Rider, at Arkansas, Florida (for bubble purposes).

Mississippi (19-9, 7-7, RPI: 53, SOS: 61) gutted out a road win at Alabama to stay in the mix. The Rebels need to pull the same home/road win sweep this weekend and then see what happens in the SEC tourney.
GW: K-State (N), UTEP (with Derrick Caracter).
BL: Arkansas (plus swept by Miss. State).

Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

These three are in after Xavier's pulsating double-overtime win over Richmond on Sunday. Now the question is will anyone else join them? All three bubble teams lost games this week and URI's and Charlotte's losses were very questionable. Richmond plays both Charlotte and Dayton, so the Spiders will have a big say.

SHOULD BE IN

None.

IN THE MIX

I now favor this following order for the next three, barely. Having seen all of the teams multiple times, I think Dayton's the best of them. The Flyers have a good set of quality wins (including over Charlotte by 28) and some really tough losses. Charlotte gets the nod next based on quality wins and league standing over Rhode Island, which beat Dayton on the road by a point but doesn't have much else.

Dayton (19-9, 8-6, RPI: 43, SOS: 37) fell at Temple in an ugly midweek game and now needs to win at Richmond on Thursday to maintain its current level of at-large hopes, despite a decent group of Ws.
GW: Georgia Tech (N), Old Dominion, Xavier, Charlotte (bubble purposes).
BL: at Saint Joe's, at Saint Louis, at Duquesne.

Charlotte (19-9, 9-5, RPI: 63, SOS: 99) lost at George Washington, which is very damaging. At least the 49ers have their fate in their own hands, closing at URI and then home to Richmond. Winning both would put them in pretty solid shape.
GW: at Louisville (albeit with 'Ville shorthanded), at Richmond, Temple.
BL: None, but lost by 30+ at Duke and Old Dominion, Duquesne.

Rhode Island (20-7, 8-6, RPI: 34, SOS: 67) also had a serious misstep, falling on the road at St. Bonaventure and now has very little margin for error. The Rams have to beat Charlotte at home on Wednesday and then win at UMass. They have the weakest top-end credentials in this group, despite the RPI numbers.
GW: at Dayton, Oklahoma State (N).
BL: at Saint Louis, at St. Bonaventure.

Saint Louis (18-9, 10-4, RPI: 84, SOS: 120) probably needed to beat Xavier at home, but if the Billikens somehow beat Temple and then win at Dayton to finish 12-4 with a sweep of the Flyers? A deep A-10 run would at least make an at-large thinkable.
GW: Richmond, Dayton and URI (all at home).
BL: Missouri State, at Bowling Green, Iowa State, at George Washington.

Colonial

Old Dominion wins the league. The conference tournament should be amazing, starting with the 3-6 and 4-5 quarterfinals. It all could be for just one bid. Crazy.

Locks: None

SHOULD BE IN

None.

IN THE MIX

Old Dominion (23-8, 15-3, RPI: 38, SOS: 80) did what it needed to do, winning twice to clinch the CAA crown. The Monarchs have a very worthy at-large profile, despite the BracketBusters loss at Northern Iowa, so making the CAA final should put them very strongly in the discussion should they need an at-large.
GW: at Georgetown.
BL: None, but three in a very balanced conference and eight overall now.

William & Mary (20-9, 12-6, RPI: 60, SOS: 109) lost at home to Towson after the Iona fiasco and finished three games behind ODU and tied for third, probably eliminating itself from realistic at-large hopes.
GW: at Wake, at Maryland, Richmond.
BL: UNC Wilmington, at James Madison, routed at Iona, (also swept by ODU, the league's other at-large hopeful).

Despite several other quality teams, there's no one else in this league that has legit at-large hopes.

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico, BYU

New Mexico got a huge win at BYU and now looks poised to push its league rival out of the West region. Yes, Jimmer Fredette was ill, but that's still an excellent road win and a sweep of the Cougars, plus better nonleague work.

SHOULD BE IN

None.

IN THE MIX

UNLV (21-7, 10-5, RPI: 44, SOS: 78) beat two teams it should have and now needs to handle Wyoming at home to close out the regular season. Three more wins in a row surely would be enough. Would two and a semifinal loss on its home court to BYU be enough? UNLV split with all three other MWC contenders and probably needs to beat the Cougars in the rubber match to feel safe.
GW: Louisville (plus at New Mexico, BYU and San Diego State in league).
BL: Swept by Utah.

San Diego State (18-8, 9-5, RPI: 40, SOS: 60) couldn't get it done at BYU and finishes 2-4 against the teams ahead of it in the MWC. The Aztecs likely will have to win four in a row now and see how they fare in a MWC final. Sounds a lot like last season, actually. UNLV has a couple of better wins and one fewer bad loss.
GW: New Mexico, UNLV (both at home in league).
BL: at Pacific, at Wyoming.

Missouri Valley

Locks: Northern Iowa

UNI blew some seeding with an unfortunate loss at Evansville, but still should be fine for the NCAAs.

SHOULD BE IN

None

IN THE MIX

Wichita State (22-8, 12-6, RPI: 50, SOS: 130) lost at Bradley and now likely needs the auto-bid.
GW: Texas Tech?, UNI.
BL: at Ill. St., at Drake, at Evansville.

Conference USA

Locks: None

UTEP leads the league by two games, but isn't in the clear. A decisive league title could be crucial for the Miners (and, on the downside, for UAB).

SHOULD BE IN

None

IN THE MIX

UTEP (22-5, 13-1, RPI: 53, SOS: 125) has won 12 straight. Now the Miners travel to Marshall and then host UAB. Win both and they have a sweep of the Blazers, a decisive league crown and a very solid claim for an at-large, if needed.
GW: at UAB, Oklahoma (N, in Oklahoma City)?
BL: None, but missed some chances out of conference.

UAB (23-5, 11-3, RPI: 37, SOS: 110) also won twice and now hosts Memphis and then travels to league-leader UTEP to close the regular season. The Blazers really need both Ws.
GW: Butler, Cincy.
BL: at Kent State.

Memphis (21-8, 11-3, RPI: 64, SOS: 105) got thumped at Houston last week and is very fringe at this point.
GW: UAB.
BL: at UMass, at SMU, at Houston.

Others

Locks: Gonzaga, Butler

Both teams continue to play for seeding. Will anyone else push their way into this group?

SHOULD BE IN

None

IN THE MIX

Utah State (22-6, 12-2, RPI: 33, SOS: 97) won at Hawaii and now has two home games left to take the WAC. If the Aggies win both, including the finale over New Mexico State, they'll win the league by multiple games and have a pretty solid at-large profile. One possible complication: Utah State could run into tourney host Nevada in the semifinals. That's not particularly fair, but the Aggies likely would have to win that one.
GW: BYU, Wichita State (for bubble purposes).
BL: at Long Beach State.

Saint Mary's (23-5, 11-3, RPI: 45, SOS: 139) won its last two WCC games at home to finish solo second, which is helpful. They'll get a double-bye into the WCC semis. The Gaels have two solid nonleague wins against bubble competitors. Could they absorb a third loss to Gonzaga and still get in?
GW: at Utah State, San Diego State.
BL: at Portland (for bubble damage).

ON THE PERIPHERY (if an at-large is needed)

Siena (MAAC) probably needs an auto bid now. Cornell (Ivy League) is one win away from one.