Early returns aren't encouraging for mid-majors (cont.)

Atlantic 10

Locks: None

This has been a very disappointing nonleague run for the league. A year after five or six teams had reasonable at-large hopes deep into the season, we could be looking at something closer to two or three this season.

SHOULD BE IN

Temple (8-2, 0-0; RPI: 19, SOS: 28)
The Owls easily have the best profile in the league at the moment. Their performance in the Old Spice Classic has been redeemed by wins over Maryland and Georgetown. They also have a late-season visit to Duke, as well as a Big 5 showdown at Villanova at the end of the month.
GW: Maryland (N), Georgetown
BL: Cal (N)?

IN THE MIX

Richmond (8-3, 0-0; RPI: 60, SOS: 113)
The Spiders have been unexpectedly up and down for such an experienced team, mixing solid wins with curious losses, including a terrible second half against Georgia Tech in the Bahamas this weekend. Upcoming games at Seton Hall and home to Wake Forest feel almost like must-wins.
GW: Purdue, at Arizona State?, VCU
BL: at Iona, Georgia Tech (N)?

Xavier (7-2, 0-0; RPI: 24, SOS: 34)
The X-men beat Seton Hall without Jeremy Hazell and took down Butler. The New Year's Eve game against Florida is really important.
GW: Seton Hall, Butler
BL: Miami (Ohio)

Dayton (8-3, 0-0; RPI: 114, SOS: 189)
One of the nation's most frustrating teams, the Flyers have barely avoided several more crippling home losses even after falling to East Tennessee State and getting doubled up at Cincinnati. The upcoming run at Seton Hall and vs. George Mason and New Mexico is crucial to Dayton's at-large hopes. The win at Ole Miss won't be enough.
GW: at Mississippi
BL: East Tennessee State

Mountain West

Locks: San Diego State

The Aztecs look real legit and could stay undefeated for some time. They have no killer wins, but at Gonzaga and Cal are certainly respectable.

SHOULD BE IN

Brigham Young (10-1, 0-0; RPI: 9; SOS: 31)
The Cougars suffered their first loss against UCLA in Anaheim. Their best effort is probably a pounding of Arizona in Salt Lake City. BYU gets San Diego State at home first at the end of January.
GW: Arizona
BL: None

UNLV (10-2, 0-0; RPI: 30, SOS: 88)
Early wins had the Rebels buzzing, but consecutive losses at Louisville and at home to UC Santa Barbara make the shot against Kansas State fairly important for more at-large wiggle room.
GW: Wisconsin, Virginia Tech (N)
BL: UC Santa Barbara

IN THE MIX

New Mexico (8-1, 0-0; RPI: 79, SOS: 254)
Now that Drew Gordon has made his debut, the Lobos are at full strength and will be judged significantly on their work going forward. That's good, because there isn't a ton in the profile yet to help.
GW: None
BL: None

The Others

Locks: None

There is a dearth of surefire at-large hopefuls from outside the eight largest conferences, so we'll take a first look at the remaining hopefuls here.

Gonzaga (5-5, 0-0; RPI: 76; SOS: 18)
The Zags got a huge win over Baylor on Saturday to give them a quality chip to go along with a solid win over Marquette. Still, they've missed on five other chances, so opportunities against Xavier, Oklahoma State and Memphis loom huge for possible at-large insurance.
GW: Baylor (N), Marquette (N)
BL: None, but five of them already

Memphis (8-1, 0-0; RPI: 41, SOS: 123)
The young Tigers took a hit when Jelan Kendrick was sent packing and they have predictably been up and down all season. They still have quality nonleague shots left at Tennessee and against Gonzaga.
GW: Miami?
BL: None

Butler (6-4, 1-0; RPI: 46, SOS: 11)
The Bulldogs, through injury and inconsistency, have more or less missed out on quality nonconference wins and suffered a bad home loss when Ronald Nored was out. That makes this week's Diamond Head Classic crucial. Butler needs to get past Utah to get itself two more quality games for the resume.
GW: None
BL: Evansville

Cleveland State (10-1, 2-0; RPI: 17, SOS: 99)
The Vikings start the next section of more fringe candidates. They stepped up in class at West Virginia and couldn't close the deal. The computer numbers look great, but those will fade as they and their opponents get into lower-level league play and lose some games.
GW: Kent State (N)?
BL: None

Wichita State (7-2, 0-0; RPI: 57, SOS: 111)
The Shockers suffered one of the most harmful losses of the season when they couldn't hold off UConn in the first round of the Maui Invitational. The result of those missed opportunities against the likes of Michigan State and Washington and a loss at San Diego State is that Wichita State doesn't have any marquee wins and is out of chances.
GW: Virginia
BL: None

Old Dominion (8-2, 0-1; RPI: 12, SOS: 12)
The Monarchs missed a home chance against Georgetown, but have beaten four other possible bubble candidates. Their shot at Missouri on Dec. 30 is a huge validation chance.
GW: Clemson, Xavier, Richmond and Dayton
BL: at Delaware

Drexel (8-1, 1-0; RPI: 25, SOS: 140)
The Dragons handed Louisville its first loss in the KFC Yum! Center and now should have their eyes set on Tuesday's big trip to Syracuse. Pull a stunner there and they suddenly have the requisite heft in this part of the slate.
GW: at Louisville
BL: None

Central Florida (9-0, 0-0; RPI: 37; SOS: 225)
The Golden Knights are working on a state championship, but may kick themselves for not having a deeper nonleague slate. They don't have any more chances for marquee wins, nor does fellow bubble dabbler Southern Miss.
GW: Miami, Florida
BL: None

Other teams like Southern Miss, Utah State and George Mason have good computer numbers but not a lot of substance behind them. At-large consideration will be difficult.

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