Snap Judgments: Don't stick fork in OT changes; Goodell talks Big Ben

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is one of the NFL coaches opposed to changing the current overtime format. Getty Images

ORLANDO -- Musings, observations and the occasional insight as the NFL Annual Meeting cranks to life with all its accompanying overtime-inspired debate...

• Sources I've talked to say it's a bit too early to divine whether the league's modified sudden death overtime proposal has a real chance to be voted in at this three-day meeting of owners. But I do know the key demographic that competition committee proponents of the new playoff rule have to sway, and that's NFL head coaches.

"The coaches are going to nitpick this to death,'' a league source said. "They don't want to have to make another decision on game day, that's what it comes down to. If it was just the owners, they'd go for it. But it's the coaches who will fight making any change to the current system.''

Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis and Tennessee's Jeff Fisher are the two coaches on the league's eight-man competition committee, and they're on opposite sides of this debate. Lewis is on record as favoring the status quo when it comes to the NFL's sudden death overtime format -- "Play some defense'' is roughly his mantra -- and Fisher is a proponent of the rule change, having voted with the 6-2 majority to recommend the modification to the full ownership.

In typical NFL foot-dragging fashion, there's some speculation the league will wind up tabling any action on the overtime rules until its spring owners meetings in May, to allow further time for discussion and education on the issue. Being tabled usually means almost certain death for many rule change proposals, but I don't sense that this move to tinker with overtime is going away any time soon. I get the idea there're some open minds among the coaching set, and that some sort of momentum for change could be generated here once the competition committee starts laying out the statistics behind its case to lessen the importance of the OT coin flip.

"I'm excited to see what's involved with the proposal, because it's intriguing to me,'' Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt said Sunday. "I'm certainly not against it going into the debate. Using it only in the playoffs is the right course to go, but I think the coaches will give it a fair hearing because there's been enough discussion over the years about this particular component. I'm used to the [current system] because that's all I've known as a player and a coach, but I'm excited about seeing where this goes.''

Trying to take a temperature reading in the hallways of Ritz-Carlton Orlando Grande Lakes, where these meetings are being held, I discovered there are pockets of support for the proposed OT format in places like New England, Dallas and Indianapolis, and pockets of opposition in Minnesota, Chicago and Pittsburgh. But mostly what I learned is a lot of folks will be making up their mind down here in the next 48 hours as the debate unfolds. It sounds like the Wednesday vote on overtime is going to be close, maybe far closer than many club executives expect. It faces an uphill fight to win passage, but it has a chance.

"Historically it's been tough to get 24 votes [and passage] for any first-time effort to change a rule,'' one competition committee member told me. "But I think the best thing about this issue is that not a lot of people have been talking about it yet, so they're not publicly committed and dug in when it comes to their position. That makes the education process that takes place the next two days pretty pivotal.''

Colts president and competition committee member Bill Polian, a longtime "status quo guy'' when it comes to overtime rules, changed his stance on the issue this year. The thinking goes if you can get the always-cautious Polian to reverse field, almost anyone can be brought around.

"The coaches are hesitant, and rightfully so, because you understand their point of view,'' Polian said. "But when you see the [coin flip] stats broken down, it's pretty obvious the rule needs some adjustment. This adjustment is one that makes perfect sense for everybody. It takes into consideration everyone's wishes. It's not two pure possessions [in overtime]. It's not pure sudden death. It's not the college system. It's still pure football. I think it's a good blend of ideas. It's a fix. Now, it may not be perfection, but perfection is not attainable.''

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell made it clear Monday he likes the "blend of ideas'' the competition committee has built into the new overtime proposal, which allows the team not winning the coin flip to have a possession unless it surrenders a touchdown on the first drive of the extra period. In essence, Goodell told the owners Monday not to let the pursuit of perfection get in the way of bettering the overtime system. It's important to note that his opinion matters in league debates, but is far from all-important.

"I'm not sure there is a perfect overtime system,'' Goodell said. "I think the competition committee has come up with something here that's very much worth consideration. For one, it keeps the sudden death nature of the game, which I think makes our system unique and attractive. I love the idea that we're in a sudden death scenario. But I think it's responsive to some of the issues people have had in the past. It's getting a lot of thought and it's got the potential to be a better system.''

In rapid-fire style, here are some of the other reactions gathered Monday when I asked club executives about the overtime debate:

-- Jets owner Woody Johnson said his team will listen to the discussion this week, but he's "leaning toward'' keeping the current overtime rules.

-- Jets head coach Rex Ryan's predictable response: "We don't know yet how we're going to vote, but we just want to win. Period.''

-- Raiders head coach Tom Cable: "It seems like [coaches] don't like it too much. To have one set of rules in the regular season and another for the playoffs. Plus, it takes the kicker out of the game a little bit.'' (And the Raiders have a pretty good kicker, as I recall.)

-- One club executive who requested anonymity made an analogy right out of current events: "It's like health care. It's about 50-50 split at this point.'' Needless to say, that won't get it done for the OT proposal, which must generate the support of three-fourths of the league's teams.

-- Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan said his team has yet to consider the overtime proposal, but when told the competition committee voted just 6-2 in favor of it, he wasn't optimistic about its chances. "If it doesn't come out of the committee unanimous, the chances aren't very good,'' he said. "Even if it's 8-0, it doesn't always get passed.''

-- The head coach of an NFC team told me his organization is a strong no when it comes to modifying overtime. "If it's not broke, don't fix it, and it's not broke,'' he said. "Plus, we have a strong return game, so of course we wouldn't want to lessen the impact that can make in overtime.''

-- Lions head coach Jim Schwartz is undecided: "The statistics show something needs to be done. It's hard to deny the statistics. But if it's good for the postseason, why not have it the same in the regular season? To have a different set of rules in the most important games of the year, when no one has experience in them, I don't know.''