Weekly Countdown (cont.)

The Celtics are exploring trade possibilities for veteran shooting guard Ray Allen. Icon SMI

On to the rest of the Countdown ...

4 Contenders in the news

• Cleveland Cavaliers. Are they making a deal or aren't they? "It has seemed quiet to me this week," a Western GM said of trade talks around the league. "It was moving there for a little while, and now things have been slowing down. But I would imagine it picks up right after the [All-Star] break."

I continue to doubt we'll see many deals at next Thursday's trade deadline, because most teams are seeking financial relief and only a few are willing to take on salary. If anything is likely to break, it will happen in the 24 hours before the deadline, when trade demands will grow more realistic. Should the market thaw, the Cavs will be one of the teams ready to acquire expensive talent.

Don't think they won't be aggressive. As well as they've been playing during their 28-4 run since early December, and as much as rival executives may assume that James will remain with Cleveland, the Cavaliers cannot rest on any assumption. If, for example, the rest of the league thinks there's an 80 percent chance James will re-sign, Cavs management has to be focusing on the 20 percent chance he may leave. But it's not just about satisfying James; it's also about doing everything possible to secure a championship now that they appear so close to that goal.

• Los Angeles Lakers. They've won three straight games while Kobe has rested his sprained ankle and broken finger, which is a nice display of their depth. But whether they win or lose without him, the key here is that Bryant is resting. He's only 31, but this is his 14th NBA year -- and accounting for his 175 playoff games adds the equivalent of another two full seasons to his mileage. While most players earn credit for playing through injury, Bryant should be lauded for declining to play in the All-Star Game on Sunday, which affirms that his priority is to position the Lakers for another championship.

• Boston Celtics. Until they prove otherwise, this team -- 9-13 since Christmas -- no longer belongs in any of the championship conversations. It's not like they're alone: The elderly Spurs are suffering through a similar melancholy. "I'm not getting through to this group," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said recently. "It's about mental toughness and physical toughness and passion and the group jelling together and playing for each other. We're not doing it." Coach Doc Rivers could say the same thing about his Celtics.

As first reported by Yahoo!'s Adrian Wojnarowski, Boston is indeed investigating potential trades for Ray Allen's expiring $18.8 million contract. One Western GM believes the Celtics' best potential acquisition would be Caron Butler, who would be out of position at shooting guard but could nonetheless join with Paul Pierce to create a highly physical perimeter "that would beat other teams up."

But other teams may outbid Boston for Butler, who is expected to be moved by Washington over the next week. I continue to believe Allen won't be traded, because it will be so very difficult to acquire a useful talent who is worthy of the years left on his contract.

• Denver Nuggets. They've emerged as the solid No. 2 team in the West while surviving the 13-game absence of Carmelo Anthony, and they've created a new bench around rookie Ty Lawson and other minimal contracts. A deadline trade for another big man will help them against the Lakers in a potential conference finals rematch, in which case Bryant's health will be a crucial variable. As well as they've played while winning both games against L.A. this year, does anyone believe the Nuggets can upset the defending champs in the playoffs? The more doubts that are raised about this Nuggets team, the better they'll respond as underdogs. Every time I see George Karl on TV, he looks like he knows a secret and can't wait for everyone else to find out.

3 Questions rescued from the spam

Stephon Marbury signed with a Chinese Basketball Association team in hopes of marketing his shoe line overseas. ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images

• Do you think playing in China will help Stephon Marbury's career, or will it only hurt him when he tries to return to the NBA? That is, assuming he wants to play in the NBA again?
-- Eric, Austin, Texas

If he is going to the trouble of playing in China, then we can assume he'd like to play in the NBA again. (Which is not meant to forget that he's also trying to market his line of sneakers to the Chinese market.) But I'll be surprised if he plays in the NBA again after being such a disappointment with the Celtics last season, when he appeared to have little confidence in his jumper. If he proves capable of knocking down shots as he used to, then he might create some interest. But Marbury is a 33-year-old with a lot of mileage and baggage, and most NBA teams will view him with suspicion.

• What are some things we can expect to get out of David Stern's statement during All-Star weekend?
-- Josh R., Miami

Stern will lead the owners into a formal meeting with the players' union Friday in Dallas, where both sides will discuss the owners' initial proposal for a new collective bargaining agreement for 2011-12. I don't know anyone who anticipates that meeting to go well. The two sides figure to be far apart.

When Stern holds his news conference the following day, less important than any details he provides will be the tone of his remarks, as well as those of union chief Billy Hunter, who typically shares the dais with Stern for the opening minutes of the press event. Will they be optimistic or pessimistic? What they say will be less important than how they say it.

• Love your story on game-winning shots. Since you've been covering the league, what has been the most memorable game-winning shot you've seen?
-- Matthew M., Fayetteville, N.C.

Thanks, Matthew. The most memorable winner has to be the layup Dennis Johnson made following Larry Bird's steal of Isiah Thomas in Game 5 of the 1987 Eastern finals. It remains the most dramatic response by an audience I've ever seen, as if 14,890 pilot lights all shot up at once with a vacuous gasp and then a roar that overwhelmed the old Boston Garden.

2 Thoughts from Stan Van Gundy

While some of his peers say they would rather have the long weekend off, the Magic coach appears honored to be overseeing the Eastern All-Stars this weekend in Dallas.

• On the cliché of playing well going into the All-Star break. Orlando enters the weekend with a three-game winning streak and victories in 10 of its last 13 games, but Van Gundy isn't sure it will carry through the long weekend. "You need to be playing well at the start of the season, in the middle of the season, into the break, out of the break -- you always want to be playing well," he said. "Other than the playoffs, I don't know if there's a time more important than any other.

"I don't really think there's a lot of momentum, period. What do they say in baseball: 'Momentum is when you've got pitching the next game'? Basketball's a little bit the same: Momentum is how you play the next night. A lot of this is about not getting caught up in the momentum, especially when it goes bad. You've got to get ready for the next night."

• On gaining insight into rival players by coaching them at the All-Star Game. He isn't sure how much he can learn from an exhibition. "I noticed in 2005," Van Gundy said of his All-Star coaching debut while representing the Miami Heat, "you already knew Allen Iverson was an unbelievable competitor, but watching him in that game was incredible because he not only wanted to play and play well, he wanted to win. He was on his teammates, and I said, 'Man, this guy is a special competitor.' So you'll get some things like that, but no real insights into their game or anything that you don't already know. Because they're just sort of playing."

1 New playoff idea

• "Make Every Game Count." The season-ending playoff proposal suggested, of which I wrote in October, is on the agenda for the Competition Committee to discuss Friday at All-Star weekend. As suggested by Nuggets VP Mark Warkentien, the Nos. 8-15 teams in each conference would play a single-elimination tournament in pursuit of the No. 8 spot in the playoffs.

Under the proposal, nothing would change for the playoff teams that earn playoff spots 1-7. The No. 8 spot, however, would be up for grabs.

No. 8 would play a home game against No. 15, No. 9 would play at home against No. 14 and so on. The loser of each game would be eliminated, while each winner would advance to the next round.

At the conclusion of the mini-tournament, the playoffs would revert to the traditional format, with the winner of the No. 8 seed opposing the team with the best record in the conference. The results of the postseason tournament would not alter the rankings of teams heading into the lottery.

The new system is meant to incentivize losing franchises at the end of the season. Lottery-bound teams would now have a reason to keep their veteran players active in hope of creating extra gate receipts, whether from the mini-tournament or the playoffs.

Warkentien's proposal raises concerns that a franchise could cynically rest its players over the final weeks to improve its lottery position, and then restore a full lineup for the mini-tournament. But at the very least, the committee should investigate whether this idea, or something like it, can be created to deal with the issue of tanking, a late-season abomination that brings out the worst of the worst each year.