Countdown: 2010 Playoff primer

5 Playoff Favorites

LeBron James finished No. 2 in scoring with 29.7 points, and his 8.6 assists broke Larry Bird's record among forwards. Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images Related Links COMPLETE 2010 PLAYOFF SCHEDULE

Now that the six-month "preseason" is out of the way we can move on to the real games. Let's start with the five teams most likely to win the final game in June.

• Cleveland Cavaliers. Their critics used to dismiss the Cavs as a team of hype, but now they are substantially the favorites to beat in just about every area worth perusing. They have earned the best record at home and on the road, and they have the best player in the world, who at 25 is approaching his peak. They can draw from the unassailable experience of seven postseason series victories over the last four years, including the humbling losses (a 2007 Finals sweep by San Antonio, a conference finals loss last year to the lesser-seeded Magic) that define most champions. They're tied for third in field-goal defense (44.2 percent) while yielding a league-low 36.5 points in the paint, and they've allowed opponents to make half of their shots overall a scant 11 times this season. They are chintzy with second-half points and they dominate the boards. They are the third-best shooting team in the league at 48.5 percent and they rank second overall from the three-point line (38.1 percent), overcoming the advantage held by Orlando (currently 37.5 percent) from that distance 11 months ago.

LeBron James finished No. 2 in scoring with 29.7 points, and his 8.6 assists broke Larry Bird's record among forwards. They can deploy Shaquille O'Neal to cover Dwight Howard in the paint; they can outnumber Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum with Shaq, Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas; and they can offset Orlando's perimeter length with Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and (don't forget) LeBron. They can play big with LeBron in the backcourt or small with LeBron at power forward.

In case of excessive fouls or injuries, they have J.J. Hickson and Leon Powe as their Nos. 5 and 6 big men, and point guard Mo Williams -- an All-Star last year -- is 42 of 78 from the field for 21.7 points over his last half-dozen games.

"The one thing I'm going to be curious to see is how it all fits together," said a rival team's personnel scout, raising his lone question about Cleveland going into the playoffs. "Sometimes your chemistry flow is so much easier when guys are out, because it limits your options. Now that they have Z and Shaq back, along with Jamison to fit in, it gets a little bit harder -- and they'll have to figure it all out in the playoffs."

Figure it out they will, thanks to LeBron. They've spent the year investing themselves in team-play at both ends of the floor, whether it was with Shaq and without him, or without Jamison and now with him. Nothing has knocked them off stride so far, and no team has been more devoted all season long to the goal of winning the championship.

• Los Angeles Lakers. After looking like the team to beat through the winter holidays, the defending champions went a frustrating 29-17 over the final three months. Their difficulties had something to do with an unbalanced schedule that put them on the road for 30 of those games, but a more worrisome influence was the mileage accrued by 31-year-old Kobe Bryant in his 14th NBA season. He had played 235 consecutive games before Feb. 6, when he missed nine of the final 31 while dealing with a sprained ankle, a swollen right knee and the broken right index finger that has bothered him for much of the year.

Pau Gasol missed 17 games but recovered from hamstring injuries to average 18.3 points with a team-leading 11.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, and the Lakers went 45-18 around him. But for the third straight year, they're approaching the playoffs not knowing whether they can rely on Gasol's fellow 7-footer, Andrew Bynum, who hasn't played since he suffered a strained Achilles March 19. Their bench -- apart from Lamar Odom -- has not been a reliable strength, and the wisdom of the Lakers' decision to replace Trevor Ariza with Ron Artest remains open to debate.

All of this goes to explain why the Lakers' rivals believe they are vulnerable. But don't discount all that rates in their favor. They are the NBA's No. 1 team in three-point defense and No. 1 in the West in field-goal defense overall. For three rounds they will be playing the majority of their games at home. And just because they've spent the second half of the season managing Bryant's health doesn't mean he won't enter the tournament as the best player in his conference. They may be stopped short of reaching the Finals, but no one should expect them to fail.

• Orlando Magic. The overhaul of the defending Eastern champions looked like it was backfiring over the first half of the season, culminating with losses in seven of their first 10 games to open the New Year. But look at what the Magic have stubbornly become: the second-winningest team overall, and the league-leader in field-goal defense.

Newcomer Vince Carter has averaged a career-worst 16.6 points and shot 42.8 percent, a six-year low. But while he was viewed as an impediment over the first half of the season, that complaint against Carter no longer appears valid: He clearly found his niche while accepting a diminished yet significant role during the Magic's extended 33-8 run over the second half of the season. Matt Barnes and Jason Williams earned crucial spots in the rotation, and Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis recovered from first-half difficulties to return to form.

Orlando attempted more threes than last year, while Dwight Howard averaged two fewer shots per game; but he is shooting a higher percentage at 61.1 percent and he is likely to win another defensive player of the year award. Put it all together and coach Stan Van Gundy has wrestled an apparently disparate roster back into title contention. They enter the playoffs on a 20-3 tear along with the confidence that they can reprise last year's upset of Cleveland. They surely look like the biggest obstacle the Cavs will face this spring.

• Dallas Mavericks. Does this franchise ever give up? Dallas is forever undergoing cosmetic surgery around Dirk Nowitzki, leaving Jason Kidd -- who arrived in February 2008 -- as the second longest-serving Maverick in the starting lineup.

The offseason reclamation of Shawn Marion has paid off as LeBron James (15-of-36), Kevin Durant (18-of-53) and Carmelo Anthony (5-of-29) have been held to 32.2 percent while Marion has been on the floor. Brendan Haywood gives them the length to match up with Bynum, and Caron Butler provides toughness and scoring. They enter the playoffs with a more physical edge than previous Nowitzki teams.

They are less volatile -- losing only five games this season after taking a 10-point lead -- yet these Mavs have maintained their old sense of fun by winning a league-leading five games when trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter, and compiling a league-best 9-2 record in games of three points or less. And yet their reward for earning the No. 2 seed is the most difficult opening round faced by any contender. If Dallas isn't playing at a high level from the start against San Antonio, it could all end abruptly.

• San Antonio Spurs. Over the closing two months the Spurs went 19-9, mostly without Tony Parker. Yet their defense tightened, Manu Ginobili (see below) renewed his form and Richard Jefferson grew more comfortable. They have the league's most productive bench to go around Tim Duncan, who still has it in him to dominate any opponent's frontcourt. The Spurs are a No. 7 seed, yet they won 50 games and finished only five games behind Dallas. The Spurs are entirely capable of reaching the NBA Finals.

4 Outsiders

• Boston Celtics. They may be healthy -- Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce looked lively around the basket in their regular-season finale at Chicago -- but the former champs know that health alone isn't the solution to what ails them. The timing, the shared understanding and the faith in one another has diminished. They've lost their identity as a contender that attacks and defends the paint; instead they've become a perimeter team around Rajon Rondo and the three-point shooting of Pierce and Ray Allen.

The Celtics insist that Cleveland can be upset in the second round because they do, indeed, match up well with the Cavaliers. The gaping difference is that the Cavs have been focused all season on one team goal, while the Celtics have been diffuse. It is alarming to see an older team crumble so often under pressure. One thing they cannot afford is to look down their noses at their first-round opponent, because the Heat must be respected for making much of their talent than the Celtics have made of their own.

• Denver Nuggets. They have home-court advantage against a Utah team they've beaten three of four times this season. But the second round will force the Nuggets -- the worst road team in the Western playoffs -- to win at least one game in Los Angeles, and to do so with defensive leader Kenyon Martin weakened by a knee injury and coach George Karl possibly unavailable as he deals with cancer treatment.

To have any chance they'll need MVP candidate Carmelo Anthony to raise his play to a LeBron-ish level, to balance his scoring with play-making, help on the boards and even inspire his teammates defensively. It's asking a lot, but there is no other way to overcome the misfortune cast upon this team.

• Phoenix Suns. How did the frontcourt-thin Suns earn -- and earn it they did -- the No. 3 seed? The answer is they execute better on the fly than most teams can manage in the halfcourt, thanks to Steve Nash's run-and-shoot quarterbacking, Amar'e Stoudemire's finishing and Grant Hill's versatility. Now they've been handed a first-round pass with Portland leading scorer Brandon Roy sitting out for knee surgery (torn meniscus). How can Portland control tempo without its best player?

So the Suns will move into the second round as enormous underdogs against the Mavericks or Spurs, but neither of those opponents will take victory over Phoenix as granted so long as Nash is pushing the ball and his shooters are making threes.

(The Suns' Eastern counterpart -- the No. 3 Hawks -- face a worse predicament. Next month they'll find themselves in the second round against Orlando, which outscored Atlanta by 65 in four games this season. The Hawks look very much like a one-and-done contender.)

• Utah Jazz. Their hopes rely almost entirely on the health of Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko. If both forwards are productive citizens, then the Jazz are capable of overcoming the wounded Nuggets and throwing a scare at the Lakers in Round 2. But the truth is they've had a hard time all season against both Denver and L.A.