Primer to the 2010 free-agent class

If winning is LeBron James' priority, then joining forces with Dwyane Wade and Pat Riley in Miami makes sense.

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2010 NBA Free Agency

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• IT'S MIAMI: LeBron heads to South Beach
• ROSENBERG: James took easy way out
• THOMSEN: Miami will get long run at top
• DAN GILBERT: Open letter to Cavs fans
• ROSENBERG: Inside the mind of Gilbert
• POSNANSKI: Cavs fans saw this coming
• DEITSCH: ESPN draws fair share of critics
• THOMSEN: 5 thoughts on the bombshell
• ROSENBERG: Inside the mind of Gilbert
• SI SURVEY: React to LeBron's decision
• THOMSEN : Hawks smart to keep JJ
• McCALLUM: Stoudemire to join Knicks
• TRACKER: List of all free-agent moves
• VIDEO: Will LeBron to Miami work?
• VIDEO: LeBron's legacy, Gilbert's letter
• VIDEO: Fans react to James' decision

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At long last, July 2010 is almost upon us. By the middle of the month, the most dynamic free-agent class of modern times will have been dispersed. Here's what to look for in the meantime (all figures are based on a projected salary cap of $56.1 million):

6 Major targets

LEBRON JAMES
Max salary for next season: $16.8 million.
Max contract with Cleveland (or sign-and-trade): $125.5 million over six years.
Max contract with a rival team: $96.1 million over five years.

The first decision is whether to accept Pat Riley's offer to play with Dwyane Wade in Miami. If winning is the No. 1 consideration, the ultimate jackpot is James, Wade and Riley -- leaving the Heat with at least $10 million in space to sign one or more additional players.

Let's assume that James and Wade -- especially Wade, who would be the clear No. 2 player here -- don't want to defer to one another. Here are James' other options:

• He can remain with Cleveland, which will be seeking to pull off a sign-and-trade for a major star to help entice James to stay home.

• He can go to the Knicks and recruit another max talent -- Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire or Joe Johnson -- to join him there.

• He can move to Chicago to play with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah with Luol Deng coming off the bench behind James at small forward, along with the promise of another $13 million in cap space for Carlos Boozer, perhaps.

• The Nets will also make a respectable run at James, though it is questionable whether he would endure two seasons at their temporary Newark headquarters while awaiting construction of their new arena in Brooklyn.

• Don't count out the Mavericks, who could put together an attractive sign-and-trade for James. The Cavs are not expected to participate in any kind of deal to help James leave, unless they decide they'd rather make sure he moves to the West instead of signing with Chicago, where he would haunt Cleveland as a divisional rival for the next several years.

Expect James to make a relatively quick decision -- by July 8 at the earliest. If he waits too long, his options will evaporate as suitors are forced to spend their cap space on a sure thing instead of waiting on James.

All season I've named the Cavs as favorites to re-sign James, especially if he chooses to sign a three-year deal in order to opt out again in 2012. But their failed attempt to hire Tom Izzo -- a coach with no NBA experience -- revealed a troubling misunderstanding of what is needed to win a championship around James as soon as possible. Can they persuade James to stay while pulling off a sign-and-trade for a star to pair with him? Call me stubborn but I think they can.

Prediction: He signs a short-term deal with Cavaliers; Bulls, Knicks and Heat in running.

DWYANE WADE
Max salary for next season: $16.8 million.
Max contract with Miami (or sign-and-trade): $125.5 million over six years.
Max contract with a rival team: $96.1 million over five years.

All signs are that Wade will remain with the Heat alongside Riley. If so, this larger role will be to serve as recruiter to bring another star or two to Miami to join him. Of course, Wade could yet bolt to New York if he senses the Heat are striking out in free agency, but Riley is too plugged in to allow that to happen.

Prediction: Wade signs a six-year max deal with Heat.

CHRIS BOSH
Max salary for next season: $16.8 million.
Max contract with Toronto (or sign-and-trade): $125.5 million over six years.
Max contract with a rival team: $96.1 million over five years.

For days we've been hearing speculation that James and Bosh will sign with the Bulls. But the numbers don't add up. Assuming that James receives a max salary of $16.8 million -- he should accept nothing less -- that would leave Bosh with a five-year deal worth $76 million. That means Bosh would be giving up $20 million on a max deal over five years and $50 million on a six-year deal via sign-and-trade. Why would he ever leave $50 million on the table?

In many ways Bosh is best positioned among all of the free agents. He is expected to move to a new team (unlike Wade) and his current franchise is expected to participate in a sign-and-trade (unlike James' Cavs). This opens up possibilities for Bosh to work a sign-and-trade with a new team for more money than James can receive by signing with the Bulls or Knicks outright.

One important consideration: Bosh has said he doesn't want to shift away from his natural position of power forward, which would appear to rule out sign-and-trade moves to the Mavericks (where Dirk Nowitzki is likely to remain) or the Lakers (where Pau Gasol has helped win two championships). But he could return to his home state of Texas to play for the Rockets, or he could move to the talent-rich Trail Blazers (if they had anyone left in their front office to pull off such a complicated maneuver) or to the Cavaliers, provided they can also persuade James to re-sign.

Orlando, Phoenix, Oklahoma City -- these are all longshots, but the list goes on and on when sign-and-trade options are involved.

Bosh could also sign a five-year deal with Miami, New York, Chicago or New Jersey if he chooses. Or a team like Miami could negotiate a partial sign-and-trade that would up Bosh to a six-year max deal by sending Michael Beasley to Toronto -- if the Raptors love Beasley, that is.

Bosh is the biggest wild card because a sign-and-trade makes sense for him financially and opens so many options for himself and the Raptors.

Prediction: Miami or New York for a five-year deal; Houston if he should opt for a max sign-and-trade.

JOE JOHNSON
Max salary for next season: $16.8 million.
Max contract with Atlanta (or sign-and-trade): $125.5 million over six years.
Max contract with a rival team: $96.1 million over five years.

If the Hawks offer Johnson the six-year max -- and they are expected to do exactly that -- how can he say no? He will be told they don't want to participate in a sign-and-trade, so he'll essentially be leaving $30 million on the table if he refuses their highly generous offer.

If Johnson is willing to sacrifice $30 million in order to leave Atlanta, he'll have a number of options -- the Knicks, Bulls, Heat and Nets may all be offering him the five-year max.

Prediction: He accepts the six-year max from Atlanta.

AMAR'E STOUDEMIRE
Max salary for next season: $17.2 million.
Max contract with Phoenix (or sign-and-trade): $130.3 million over six years.
Max contract with a rival team: $99.8 million over five years.

Don't expect the Suns to participate in a sign-and-trade for Stoudemire. The departures of GM Steve Kerr and his assistant David Griffin leave them without the front office leadership to handle the difficult negotiations, and the Suns don't appear interested in taking back a ton of salary. Unless -- and this is worth stashing away as a possibility -- they pull off a partial sign-and-trade with Miami that delivers Beasley to Phoenix while awarding Stoudemire with a six-year max. (Such a leveraged deal would leave the Heat with $15 million for another big name to join Wade and Stoudemire.)

The Heat let Stoudemire know they were interested in acquiring him during the trading deadline last February. The Knicks, Nets, Clippers and Bulls all should be interested in him.

Prediction: He signs for five years (or six years in a partial sign-and-trade) with Miami.

CARLOS BOOZER
Max salary for next season: $16.8 million.
Max contract with Utah (or sign-and-trade): $125.5 million over six years.
Max contract with a rival team: $96.1 million over five years.

Will Boozer make the max? He was paid $12.3 million last year with Utah, and his history of injuries makes him the likely No. 3 choice among power forwards. But if James and Johnson stay home, there will be competition for Boozer, and his price may hit the ceiling.

Utah is unlikely to participate in a sign-and-trade for Boozer unless he goes to a team with cap space and the Jazz don't have to take back equal salary in return.

Prediction: He signs for five years with the Nets, or winds up in Miami or Chicago as a secondary option.