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Posted: Thursday March 11, 2010 4:31PM; Updated: Thursday March 11, 2010 5:45PM
Paul Forrester
Paul Forrester>INSIDE THE NBA

End of the Darko age at hand? (cont.)

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What's not

dwight-howard2.jpg
A study of blocked shots argues Dwight Howard's propensity to goaltend softens the effectiveness of his interior defense.
Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Dwight Howard ... sort of. Howard is the anti-Duncan, having been called for goaltending on 24 percent of his blocks, according to Huizinga's and Weil's research. In other words, 24 percent of Howard's blocks gave an opponent points. But before we go and write off Howard as an overrated block artist, consider that his skills in defending the low post likely carry an intimidation factor that changes shots, one the study admittedly could not measure.

Blocks out of bounds. Fun as it is to watch a shot sent flying into the stands, it still leaves a defense more work to do. And no one created more work for his teammates on the defensive end than Rasheed Wallace, who swatted 25 percent of his blocks out of bounds, the study found. Wallace creating more work for his team? Sounds about right.

Theo Ratliff's unique scoring prowess. By and large, players nowadays seem more interested in making a statement with a block than in flipping possession for a fast break, the research paper found. Of those who did excel at creating points out of defense, Ratliff ranked No. 1, accounting for 300 points over the last seven seasons, a total the study's authors equated to about five extra wins for Ratliff's teams.

They said it

• "I'm not speaking [for] Chris Bosh. I'm just saying, the individual that wants to move on ... there are different reasons why a guy wouldn't want to play [in Toronto]."
-- Tracy McGrady offers his two cents on Bosh's situation.

• "When I was growing up, I said I wanted to be in the NBA. I never said I wanted to go to the NBA and play for L.A. or New York or D.C. or a big market. I just wanted to play in this league. It's a privilege. I can't be picky about who I want to go to just because it's a bigger city. I want to have an opportunity to win, and I think we have that here."
-- Kevin Durant makes Thunder management very happy.

• "My offense is just terrible right now. I don't know if I even want to shoot the ball next game or for a couple games. I don't even know if I want to shoot the ball because things are just not going my way. I'm struggling really bad right now."
-- Bucks rookie Brandon Jennings after going 2-for-12 in a recent win over the Wizards.

• "We're not fond of that kind of statement."
-- Scott Skiles on Jennings' stated trouble.

• "He just isn't a high-level, volume guy that carries you. I think he would agree to that."
-- Sixers coach Eddie Jordan on Andre Iguodala's skills as a leading man.

• "I'm a man, just like they a man. If a man is talking to me this close to my face, I'm going to say something back. He has to respect me just like I respect him. I just [said], 'Get up out of my face.' He was this close in my face -- I can feel his lips touching my cheek -- I wasn't bragging saying, 'Ah, we winning.' It was 'Back up.' "
-- Wizards forward Andray Blatche engaged in with Kevin Garnett in a recent three-point loss in Boston.

Required reading

Indianapolis Star: Another season, another intriguing story about Greg Oden's rehab.

Basketball Prospectus: Stats guru Kevin Pelton offers a glimpse at the many statistical analysts now taking up residence in official capacities with a handful of teams and the league itself.

Hardwood Paroxysm: While Mike Dunleavy's time with the Clippers was largely a disappointment, he didn't fare so badly in the draft, especially in the first round.

Off the Dribble: Interesting theory from salary-cap guru Larry Coon about how star players could wield the threat of playing overseas as the ultimate hammer in labor negotiations.

Three points

Before we close the book on this year's MIT stats-fest, a few of the more interesting ideas ...

1. Box scores are antiquated. We've been turning to the same statistical snapshots, tracking the same points, rebounds, assists, shooting and minutes for who knows how long. But these numbers are insufficient, given that drawing a charge or deflecting a pass can mean just as much in the outcome. "Box scores are an incomplete story," Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard said. "They can say someone shot 8-for-13 and 5-for-5 from the free-throw line, but they can't tell you he didn't make winning basketball plays." That would take a box score that doesn't fit the tight space of a newspaper's stats page. And an effort to track those extra numbers is something teams must do on their own right now, Cuban said.

2. The next step in the statistical revolution will be player-by-player video analysis. The stats now tracked may be incomplete, but they paint a much better picture on offense than on defense. How many missed shots a player forces or deflections one creates is not something seen in the numbers, or even regularly caught on a broadcast. Companies such as Synergy Sports that track video for individual players hold the key to a treasure trove of data, said a panel of team stat analysts. And once the technology is refined, much of those jewels are expected to open a wide lens on the effectiveness of individual defenders.

3. Next form of analysis: cognitive testing. The biggest challenge teams often face is determining how their own players run the plays. Can they remember the play call? How crisply can they run what's called in a close game and the pressure is high? In short, which players are mentally strong? "Real-time assessment is the next wave," Cuban said in another panel about the limits of advanced statistical analysis. That isn't easy, though, when dealing with young men who normally would still be in college. Added Rockets GM Daryl Morey: "The struggle to use a lot of psychologists' findings ... is that a 20-year-old doesn't know who they are sometimes."

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