Coaching not DePaul's dilemma, more (cont.)

Potential NBA lottery pick Wesley Johnson has averaged 17 points and nine rebounds in leading Syracuse to a 16-1 start. AP

After just watching Vandy thump Florida on ESPN, it looks like you were way off in your assessment of the Commodores' toughness. That's exactly how they won the game by being way more physical than we were in the second half. They out rebounded, out defended, and overall kicked our butts physically in the second half. From what I saw today, and with Tennessee's problems, they clearly look like the second best team in the SEC east.
-- Larry, Gainesville, Fla.

Don't mean to be rude, Larry, but it's not exactly a landmark achievement for a team to be tougher than your Gators. Not only does this Florida team lack toughness, but it is also one of the worst-shooting teams Billy Donovan has had. Like I said, I think this Vandy team has some talented players, but you take the true measure of a team when they leave their home gym. Wednesday's one-point win at Alabama was impressive, but it also started a five-game stretch that includes four road games, including at Tennessee and Kentucky later this month. Check back with me in a couple of weeks, and we'll see if Vandy has indeed proved me wrong.

Unlike some of the Syracuse haters out there I think they have a great shot at reaching the Final Four this year. Chemistry is the most underrated aspect of college basketball and this year's Orange team definitely has fantastic chemistry. My question is will Wes Johnson's decision on whether to turn pro or not hinge on what the team ends up doing this year or is he going pro after this year no matter what?
-- Jim Hoyer, Clayville, N.Y.

First of all, Jim, let me give you my dead-solid guarantee that Wesley Johnson will be a lottery pick in the NBA draft this year. That is a done deal -- and even if he were to come back, it will be because his draft stock sank, not because Syracuse didn't go far enough in the tournament. That aside, I do agree with you about this team's improved chemistry. Everybody I talk to around the program emphasizes how much Jim Boeheim likes coaching this team, which is a not-so-subtle dig at Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris. It's funny how many skeptics came out of the woodwork after the loss at home to Pittsburgh, but the Panthers' win at Cincinnati two days later (not to mention their victory at UConn on Wednesday night) has made that loss a lot more respectable. We'll know a little more about Syracuse in the next two weeks after the Orange have played at West Virginia and Notre Dame, followed by home games against Marquette and Georgetown. I'd anticipate they'll lose one of those four, but even if they do, it will not change my assessment that this is a Final Four-caliber team.

Why does Ryan Kelly get no minutes for Duke? He was recruited like a top-10 recruit and most other top-10 recruits are making significant contributions and getting significant minutes. Is he not as good as we thought? Why do these "big recruits" not play at Duke, often resulting in transfers that leave the roster without key personnel (Michael Thompson, Jamaal Boykin, Eric Boateng, Olaf Czyz just to name some recent examples)? As a big Duke fan and alum, I can never understand Coach K's lack of faith in young players (particularly big men). The situation seems to be repeating itself with Kelly. I can't help but think that the only result will be another top ten recruit wasted, transferring to a lesser program.
-- Zach Brodsky, New York City

First of all, I think Zach is overrating a bit where Kelly stood in the recruiting world upon entering Duke. Yes, Rivals.com ranked him 20th in the Class of 2009, but most people I talked to believed that 6-foot-10 center Mason Plumlee, whom Rivals ranked 55th, was the better player. I would also recommend that people show a little patience with this process. Not every freshman has to play 20-plus minutes a game, especially when a program has established veterans at that player's position.

Kelly's main problem right now is that his skill set is too similar to Kyle Singler's, and Singler is going to command 30 minutes a game. Kelly is highly skilled but slightly built, and he does not give Duke a physical inside presence like Plumlee does (not to mention Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek and Miles Plumlee). Kelly only played five minutes in Duke's win over Boston College on Wednesday, and even in that brief spurt he looked lost on the defensive end. I agree it is very hard to come in for three or four minute spurts and have an effect on the game, but if Kelly is going to get more playing time, he's going to have to either earn it in practice or wait his turn. I anticipate it will end up being the latter.

Finally, I got a bunch of e-mails questioning my weekly AP ballot. Serves me right for giving y'all a sneak peek:

Why are the Canes getting no love in the coaches poll or by you? They are 14-1 heading into ACC play (I know the lost to BC by 1). They are Top 30 in the AP but have no votes in the coaches.
-- Ryan, New York City

Sorry, but I did not give Miami much consideration this week because they don't have a single quality win -- and they still don't after losing by 15 at Virginia Tech on Wednesday. The Canes' best win was over full-strength South Carolina on a neutral court and at home against Minnesota and Wake Forest, neither of which I ranked as well. Nor do I lightly dismiss that loss at Boston College, which after all has lost this season to Saint Joseph's, Harvard, Rhode Island and Maine. Having blown their chance in Blacksburg, Miami will not have a chance to notch a love-worthy win until February, when they play in succession at Wake, at Florida State, home vs. Georgia Tech, at Clemson and home vs. Duke.

Hey, it seems you don't follow what you write. You wrote that you sell UConn as a team and say their ranking is based on tradition, but you still keep them in the top 15 in your ballot after four losses. Why don't you follow what you write when you send your ballot in?
-- Jonathan, Storrs, Conn.

You have to remember that my stock report is not a reflection of how good I think a team is, but rather where I think they're headed relative to where they were when I wrote it. UConn has vindicated my Sell rating by blowing a 19-point lead at Georgetown and falling at home to Pittsburgh. So I'm sure my fellow voters and I will be dropping the Huskies a few spots next week. Still, to drop a team you have to find others who deserved to be moved ahead of them, and at this stage of the season that is getting harder to do.

You ranked Villanova over Purdue due to, as you said, the fact that Villanova has more quality wins. However, if you compare both teams, Purdue is 4-1 against the RPI top 50, while Villanova is only 1-1. Purdue beat the top RPI team (West Virginia) while Villanova lost to the No. 3 RPI team (Temple). Finally, Purdue has an SOS of 34, Villanova has an SOS of 65. So Seth, care to make a correction?
-- Chad, Cincinnati

Chad makes some good points, but I won't make a correction -- and not just because of Purdue's loss to Ohio State on Tuesday night. These two teams were basically a coin flip for me, but I went with Nova because I felt like they had three really good wins (at Marquette, neutral court vs. Ole Miss and Dayton), while Purdue had two (Tennessee neutral and West Virginia at home). Obviously I wasn't the only one who felt that way because Villanova ended up being ranked 4th while Purdue was 6th. Now that Villanova is back to full strength in the frontcourt, I think they're going to stay in the top five for a while.

I see you have Wisconsin at 10 and Michigan State at 12, and you dropped Michigan State after an undefeated week. I can only assume that was a typo and you meant to have Michigan State at 10 and Wisconsin at 12 and you didn't forget that Michigan State already beat Wisconsin this season?
-- Chris Vanzand, Sastile, N.Y.

I got a couple of e-mails pointing this out this apparent discrepancy. Unfortunately, none of them pointed out that I also voted Wisconsin behind Purdue (5) and Duke (6), whom the Badgers also beat this season. As you can tell by now, I'm a big home-away guy, and Michigan State's win over Wisconsin was in East Lansing, so to me they only get partial credit. Same goes for the Badgers' two big wins in Madison. Furthermore, Michigan State's loss to Florida in neutral-court Atlantic City is looking worse over time, and while Wisconsin's loss to Green Bay was pretty bad, at least it came on the road.

But you know what? I just spent more time thinking about where to rank those two in answering this e-mail than I did while assembling my ballot. I spend all week watching games, talking on the phone and reading everything I can about college hoops. When I get to putting together the ballot Sunday night, I try not to think too much and in the end I go with my gut. This ain't football, you know, and thank goodness for that.