Which teams benefit the most from nonconference scheduling?

Point guard Jerome Randle guided Cal through a taxing nonconference schedule. AP

Selection Sunday isn't quite around the corner, but it's definitely on this block. As we get closer to the big day, you'll start to see more references to the RPI, but at this relatively early stage it's hard to figure out just how much attention we should pay to all those numbers. Reading the RPI rankings in mid-January is like reading the voting returns early on election night. Yes, the numbers tell you what trends might be forming, but it's far too early to make a projection.

There is, however, one race in which almost all the returns are in, and that's the all-important nonconference strength of schedule rankings. Most teams have either played all the nonconference games they're going to play, or they only have one or two left. So we pretty much know where this category will stand on the big day.

And it is an important category. Over the last decade, the men's basketball committee has put an increasing emphasis on this portion of a team's profile because it is the only part of the schedule that teams can control. The committee seeks to reward teams that seek out tough competition and punish those that don't. If you're a bubble team, your NC SOS ranking looms large when the committee is deciding those last few at-large bids.

So now that we can make some projections, I've assembled a list of eight potential bubble teams who helped themselves during the first few months of the season, and another eight who hurt themselves. I've placed the NC SOS rankings in parentheses. (As always, my data comes from Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com.) We'll find out in two short months just how much these rankings matter.

Eight who helped themselves

California (3). The Bears will not be able to improve their RPI profile much during Pac-10 play, so this surprisingly high nonconference ranking will be a huge help. They lost their four toughest games, but in three of those (Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico) they played without an injured Theo Robertson. The committee will definitely take that into account.

Connecticut (7). It's hard to imagine the Huskies will still be on the bubble come Selection Sunday, but given that their best RPI wins are at home against William & Mary and Harvard, they'll need all the house money they can get. Their loss at Michigan on Sunday did not help their cause, but of course they can dramatically change the picture if they can somehow knock off Texas on Saturday.

Butler (8). The Bulldogs are ranked 24th in the RPI, but all it would take is a couple of losses in the Horizon League to drop them onto the bubble. They've got good wins over Ohio State and Xavier (in that weird clock-malfunction game), and their win at Northwestern back on Nov. 18 is looking better by the day.

Xavier (12). It would be ironic if the Musketeers' chances of making the NCAA tournament came down to that crazy ending at Butler. I doubt that it will, considering Xavier is 14th in the RPI and the Atlantic 10 is tough, but this NC SOS ranking is a nice asset. It's a little concerning that the Musketeers' best win came in double-overtime at home against Cincinnati, while the other toughies (Marquette and Baylor on a neutral court, Kansas State, Butler and Wake Forest on the road) resulted in losses. But at least they played some quality teams.

Rhode Island (35). The Atlantic 10 could be looking at four (maybe even five) teams getting into the NCAA tournament, and the Rams' terrific nonconference schedule helps explain why. If they had won at VCU on Dec. 2 instead of losing by two, that would have been huge, especially since the two teams may end up competing for an at-large spot. URI's neutral-court win over Oklahoma State could go a long way for the same reason.

William & Mary (38). The Tribe are currently 28th in the RPI, but that number will fall as conference play progresses. As always, those wins against fellow bubble teams are huge: Richmond, VCU, Wake Forest and Maryland -- and the last two were on the road. Well played, gents.

Washington (40). This is one case where you have to go beyond just one number. Yes, the Huskies have a high NC SOS ranking, but their schedule included just one true road game, which they lost in overtime at Texas Tech (a team that has lost five of nine since). Moreover, Washington's best win outside the Pac-10 came at home against Texas A&M in a game where Aggies guard Derrick Roland gruesomely broke his leg. I give Lorenzo Romar credit for avoiding the really bad teams (the lowest-ranked team UW played RPI-wise is No. 219 San Francisco), but if the Huskies hope to get at an at-large bid, they need to finish no lower than second in the Pac-10.

Illinois (64). The Illini's nonconference profile includes two very important wins against probable NCAA tournament teams -- at Clemson and home against Vanderbilt. The Illini would be in better shape if they had managed to finish off Gonzaga instead of falling in overtime, but as long as they continue to take care of business against the bottom teams in the Big Ten, they should be in pretty good shape.