Advice on the bracket (cont.)

WEST

Versatile Gonzaga star Matt Bouldin could give Syracuse trouble in the second round. Joe Murphy/Getty Images

• If Louisville-Duke is the juiciest potential second-round matchup, then Syracuse-Gonzaga is a close second, especially since Arinze Onuaku apparently won't be playing. This Gonzaga team is stronger up front than in years past, and Matt Bouldin is the most effective versatile player in America this side of Evan Turner. Although most of the attention on Syracuse is focused on that tough zone defense, the Orange are even better at the offensive end. They lead the nation in field goal percentage and their transition game is lethal. Gonzaga's defense has been suspect all season, and while the Bulldogs lost very few games, they had some pretty bad losses -- to Loyola Marymount and San Francisco, and they got waxed by Duke and St. Mary's. I think the 'Cuse holds on, and when they get Onuaku back that should push them to Indy.

• The 12-5 matchup is where most of the classic upsets happen, but while it's tempting to go with UTEP, I think the Miners' lack of discipline on offense will do them in against a Butler team that rarely turns the ball over. The better potential for a shocker is 13th-seeded Murray State over Vanderbilt. I'm not taking that one, but again, Vandy probably won't get past the Sweet 16 anyway, so that's a good chance to take. I believe winning is a habit, and the Racers won all but four games this season and at one point reeled off 17 straight wins.

• I was tempted to pick BYU over Kansas State, so if you want to try that one I'm not going to talk you out it. I went with the Wildcats because they are strong and tough defensively, and that is not something BYU sees a lot of in the Mountain West. The one chance I did take here was picking Xavier over Pitt in the second round. Xavier can match Pitt's size inside, but even though the Musketeers' guards are inconsistent, at their best they are better than the Panthers' perimeter players.

EAST

• If I had to pay to watch one game in the first round, it would be Temple-Cornell. The Big Red are the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the nation, while the Owls are ranked in the top 10 nationally in both field goal defense and three-point defense. Both teams also both have big, mobile centers in Cornell's Jeff Foote and Temple's Lavoy Allen. In the end, I think Temple's defense wins out in this one, and the Owls' guards (Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks) are more than capable of knocking down shots of their own.

• It's funny, I've been saying for the last two weeks that Wisconsin was one of my Final Four sleepers, but the NCAA tournament always comes down to matchups. And when I saw the potential matchup between the Badgers and Temple, I instinctively believed Temple would win the game. Same thing for New Mexico. I've liked the Lobos all season, but I really believe Marquette is a tough matchup for both New Mexico and Washington because of the way the Golden Eagles defend. East coast media types like myself are always talking about how much tougher the teams are on this side of the country. Here is a chance for either Washington or New Mexico to prove us wrong.

• Four weeks ago on my Courtside show on CBS College Sports, I named West Virginia as the top-15 team most likely to lose an early-round game because of poor point guard play. And if Da'Sean Butler's desperation heave against Cincinnati in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament had rattled out instead of accidentally banking in, I'm sure my perception of the Mountaineers would be different. But as much as I've loved Kentucky all season, I've grown increasingly weary of these Wildcats over the last few weeks. It's not just that they're young -- these guys are young for their age. In the end, I think West Virginia's toughness, experience and, perhaps, good luck will be the difference in a gripping regional final. It also goes to show that if you're a professional TV commentator and writer, the best strategy is to say everything at least once during the course of the season. That way, no matter what happens, you can say, "I told you so!"

SOUTH

• It appears I have aroused a good bit of righteous indignation from Cal nation. (And I thought y'all were a bunch of flower-sniffing hippies!) As you may know, I did not believe the Bears deserved an at-large bid, but I don't have much problem with their inclusion. It is, however, laughable that they got an 8-seed considering they had one win against a team ranked in the top 50 of the RPI, and that was at home against Washington. I mean, William and Mary had three top-50 wins. At any rate, the Bears are fully capable of beating Louisville, but I think the Cardinals' defense will be too much for the Bears, and Louisville will also have by far the best big man on the floor in Samardo Samuels.

• Going back to my strategy of taking early-round chances in games where the winner will probably not advance far regardless, you've got two really good possibilities in 12th-seeded Utah State and 13th-seeded Siena. I'm sure Siena is going to be the hot pick in that first-round game against Purdue, and you can count me among those who are going with the Saints. I'm picking the Aggies to make the Sweet 16 because the first two games are being played in Spokane. I'm sure you remember Siena's exciting upset of Ohio State in the first round last year, but the Aggies nearly pulled off an upset of their own before falling to Marquette by one. Utah State is also ranked in the top five nationally in three-point percentage.

• That 10-7 game between Saint Mary's and Richmond is a doozy. I think the Gaels can hang with Richmond's terrific backcourt of David Gonzalvez and Kevin Anderson far better than the Spiders can deal with big Omar Samhan down low. So chalk up a win there for Saint Mary's. I also think Baylor is just too physical inside for either Notre Dame or Villanova, and as I mentioned the game is in Houston, so there should be a nice green-and-yellow crowd in the building. If Baylor and Villanova do play in the Sweet 16, it will feature a scintillating matchup at the point between Scottie Reynolds and Tweety Carter.

• You could make the argument that Duke will potentially face a tougher opponent in the second round than in the Sweet 16 -- although playing Texas A&M in Houston will be no picnic. For all that has been said about the Blue Devils' Big Three, there have been very few occasions when Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler have played well at the same time. Smith has been up and down for much of the season; Singler couldn't buy a bucket the first three months and now he can't miss; and Scheyer has struggled offensively the last three weeks. Once they get to the regional semifinal there will be much less margin for error, but the difference between this Duke team and in years past is its ability to overcome a bad shooting night with tough defense and rebounding. Baylor is one of the few teams in the country that is bigger than Duke inside, but the Bears also rely on playing a zone defense that allows for open jump shots. The Blue Devils can't have two of their Big Three firing, but if they all three bring their A game, then Duke's best is better than Baylor or Villanova's best. Heading into Selection Sunday, I would not have anticipated picking Duke to go to the Final Four, but after looking at the matchups, that's where my pen took me.