MLS Eastern Conference preview: Fire, Crew are the teams to beat

Major League Soccer's Eastern Conference is wildly unpredictable this year because most clubs are under new management. Chicago and New York have coaches who have never prowled the sidelines at an MLS match. D.C. United has Kansas City's old manager, while Kansas City is led by a former interim boss now taking over full time. Toronto's coach was snapped up from Chivas USA. Meanwhile, everything is new for expansion Philadelphia. That leaves New England, which has an experienced and respected manager but issues aplenty to sort through after a personnel makeover, and Columbus. FYI: There are also two new stadiums in the East.

Click here for Steve Davis' Western Conference preview

EASTERN CONFERENCE: Projected order of finish

1. CHICAGO FIRE
2009 Record: 11-7-12

• Prominent comings and goings: We saw a curious amount of turnover for a league semifinalist, one eliminated only on penalty kicks, in fact. Offensive fulcrum Cuauhtemoc Blanco is gone. So is the league's top left back of the last two years, Gonzalo Segares, defensive utility knife Brandon Prideaux and versatile attacker Chris Rolfe. Plus, manager Denis Hamlett was kicked to the curb, replaced by Salvadoran Carlos de los Cobos, a newbie to MLS.

• The good, bad and noteworthy: Players like John Thorrington, Logan Pause, Patrick Nyarko and Tim Ward represent a solid core of MLS middle-class wage earners. Marco Pappa has star potential and you always know what you're going to get from vets like defender Wilman Conde and striker Brian McBride. So the X-factor here is de los Cobos and his ability to piece things together properly. ... Justin Mapp: Remember when he would have been featured in one of these previews?

• The man who matters: Who is Collins John? Is he the up-and-comer who looked like an emerging Dutch force when he hit for 11 goals at Fulham in 2005-06? Or is he the underachiever who shrank beneath the weight of it all during subsequent stops in England, Holland and Belgium? (And why is he on his fifth side since October 2007? Anyone else hear alarm bells?) Once we discover those answers, we'll know a lot more about how far this team can go.

• Bottom line: Replacing Hamlett was a bold move, to say the least, by technical director Frank Klopas. Good or bad, this season's outcome is largely on him.

2. COLUMBUS CREW
2009 Record: 13-7-10

• Prominent comings and goings: Newly signed Colombian forward Sergio Herrera is in the sweet spot of his career at age 28 -- and he needs to produce. Otherwise, striker production may be down to Stephen Lenhart, who does manage to turn his absurdly physical, human pinballing ways into goals (but remains fairly limited otherwise).

• The good, bad and noteworthy: Last year Robert Warzycha was the new kid on the MLS managerial block. Now, he's been in charge of his current team for longer than six (six!) fellow Eastern Conference managers. That's why coaches should always rent instead of buy. ... Robbie Rogers is about to begin his fourth year in Columbus. He has 10 goals and nine assists in 59 matches -- ordinary bordering on "just not good enough." It's high time to turn all that potential into production.

• The man who matters: Watching Chad Marshall in 2010 will be interesting. The big center back is clearly still the Minister of Defense at Crew Stadium. But will he suffer from a little emotional slump if he isn't picked for the World Cup team? And will the entire back line suffer if Frankie Hejduk continues the form free fall that cracked him late last year?

• Bottom line: Guillermo Barros Schelotto turns 37 in May, so the Crew simply cannot continue to depend so heavily on their indomitable, wily Argentine attacker. Consider this remarkable statistic: Over the last two years Schelotto has scored or assisted on 49 of the Crews' 101 regular-season and playoff goals. It demonstrates a stinging overreliance, not to mention creating a huge "huh?" over Warzycha's controversial choice to sit the team's heart and soul for last year's playoff opener at Real Salt Lake, a 1-0 loss.

3. TORONTO FC
2009 Record: 10-11-9

• Prominent comings and goings: Preki did more with less than any MLS manager over the last couple of years at Chivas USA -- more than anyone this side of New England's Steve Nicol, at least. Now he's in place at BMO Field following the inglorious end to Chris Cummins' interim reign there. Cummins' time in charge was undistinguished, although not particularly terrible until that fateful final day of 2009. With a playoff berth potentially at stake, the club crashed in a 5-0 humiliation to a non-playoff struggler, New York. Who saw that coming? Forward Ali Gerba was sent home from preseason training, apparently having moved into Preki's doghouse. Amado Guevara was never going to be part of the plan. Also, longtime midfield mainstay Carl Robinson is now in New York and defender/midfielder Adrian Serioux has moved to Houston.

• The good, bad and noteworthy: Central defense has long been the bugaboo around BMO that never seems to get fixed. Preki will have the side organized and hunting in packs, but question marks centrally in defense remain. ... Think Preki's team won't be physical? TFC saw red in four consecutive preseason matches. Uh, they do call 'em "friendlies" you know? ... Young holding midfielder Amadou Sanyang showed promise in 2009 but frequently lacks discipline. Still, he may be a great central complement for the technically gifted Julian de Guzman.

• The man who matters: De Guzman is a classy passer, no doubt, but he came in too late in 2009 to land with full impact. He'll need to build chemistry on the attack with Dwayne De Rosario, because the roster of quality strikers looks thin.

• Bottom line: Preki knows how to win games in MLS. It won't always be pretty, but the new manager can give fans more of the results they so richly deserve.

4. NEW YORK RED BULLS
2009 Record: 5-19-6

• Prominent comings and goings: There were key personnel additions, such as Estonian midfielder Joel Lindpere and Costa Rican fullback Roy Miller. They'll be under the direction of new manager Hans Backe, who seems to have a good handle on things so far. But resplendent Red Red Bull Arena is the true star addition, a $200 million beauty that opens amid a resounding chorus of "It's about time!" Red Bull Arena's christening and Philadelphia's debut are, in the big picture, the most significant developments overall in MLS this year.

• The good, bad and noteworthy: The club already looks night-and-day different than the wandering lot that finished last in MLS in 2009. RBNY appeared highly organized in defeating Santos of Brazil 3-1 in a preseason friendly on Saturday. ... Backe has taken a real shining to defender Tim Ream, the 18th pick (second round) in January's MLS draft. Ream and veteran Mike Petke appear to be the first-choice central tandem, with promising second-year man Jeremy Hall set to start on the right and Miller on the left. ... This club hasn't won a road match since months before George W. Bush left office. No kidding.

• The man who matters: Juan Pablo Angel, classy on and off the field, has fought through the franchise dim days: the scourge of Giants Stadium artificial turf and inconsistent service on ragamuffin teams. It's all in front of him now, a fantastic stage and an enhanced supporting cast. He's currently in a fitness race (knee) to play in this week's Red Bull Arena MLS opener but looks otherwise set for a big season.

• Bottom line: Backe seems be establishing a reasonable foundation, but the lack of a winning legacy is difficult to overcome. Plus, there are still questions to answer in goal (Bouna Coundoul? Really?) and elsewhere around the field, where the first-choice selections appear adequate but depth looks perilously thin. Oh, did we mention that swell new arena?