Why Georgia could be a national sleeper in 2010; more Mailbag

As a longtime observer of -- and former participant in -- preseason rankings, it's a great mystery how certain teams seem to garner a universally agreed-upon spot in the preseason hierarchy as early as January.

Is it crazy to think that the editors of Athlon, Lindy's, The Sporting News, Blue Ribbon and SI meet in an undisclosed location (perhaps that nowhere-looking diner from Hard Knocks) early in the offseason and agree to rank Nebraska as a low-Top 10 team; that Pittsburgh must fall somewhere between Nos. 14 and 19; and that Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina should be barely separated. (The one notable dissenter: Phil Steele, who only comes out of his bat cave on the third Tuesday of every other month and therefore misses the summit.)

There are only a handful of teams apparently unpredictable enough for the consortium to agree upon. This week, we examine one of them:

I am surprised at the placement of Georgia -- not where they are ranked, but the diversity of their ranking. The coaches have them 21, Phil Steele has them 19th but a candidate to win the SEC East (I like that), CollegeFootballNews all the way at No. 3 (!), and SI (the magazine) projects them at 8-4. Why such disagreement? Yes, there is a new defensive scheme, but anything is an improvement over last year. And yes, there is a freshman quarterback, but everyone else is back on offense for a redshirt, former Elite-11 freshman quarterback.
-- NCDawg, Greensboro, N.C.

I don't know whether Georgia will finish No. 3 or No. 33. All I know is that for all the ludicrous talk about Mark Richt being on the "hot seat," the fact that Georgia is even in the discussion as an SEC contender is a tribute to Richt's track record. (Don't tell anyone, but he averages 10 wins a season.) Because if you take Richt out of the equation, you're looking at a team that lost five games last year -- including a home loss to Kentucky and blowouts to Tennessee and Florida -- and returns essentially two proven commodities: its offensive line and receiver A.J. Green. A national ranking period is the result of a whole lot of assumptions.

Quarterback Aaron Murray has a considerable high school pedigree, but he has yet to take a collegiate snap. Who knows how he'll respond? Georgia will rely heavily on its running game, but as much as Dawgs fans are convinced that Washaun Ealey and Caleb King are the second coming of Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown, to this point neither has run for more than 717 yards in a season. And then there's the defense, which many UGA faithful believe will be magically repaired now that coordinator/devil incarnate Willie Martinez is gone. Personally, I'm not as concerned about the new scheme as I am about the seven new starters.

So after that rather harsh assessment, you're probably assuming I fall into the 8-4 camp. Not so fast. Count me as part of the Georgia/national sleeper crowd -- and the reason is Richt. Last year was his first truly "down" season since his first in Athens, and his best seasons have come when preseason expectations were low. His two SEC championship teams (in 2002 and '05) were picked to finish third in their division, and the '07 team that finished No. 2 nationally started 13th in the AP poll. On paper at least, this team actually reminds me a bit of the 13-1 team from '02 that was coming off an eight-win season, with a young quarterback (sophomore David Greene) and a defense of then-unknowns like David Pollack and Sean Jones.

I don't see Georgia beating Florida in the East, but a 10-2 record seems entirely plausible and may just be enough to sneak into a BCS bowl over the SEC title-game loser (presumably the Gators or Alabama).

How could you and Andy Staples list the 10 things that will define college football this decade and not include head injuries/concussions? With more studies showing the dangers of youth football, it is very likely fewer parents will allow their kids to even play the sport anymore.
-- Nick, Tampa, Fla.

No question, safety will continue to be one of the hot-button issues for the sport over the next decade, and Andy and I tossed around a couple of related ideas. The problem was, we were supposed to make "predictions" about the next 10 years, and I honestly have no idea what officials will end up doing about head injuries. Most people I talk to around the sport are similarly concerned but perplexed. They know the way the sport is played needs to change drastically, but at the same time you can't change the fact that football is by nature a contact sport, and players are only going to continue getting bigger, faster and stronger.

One thing I don't buy is this notion that kids will stop playing football. Maybe you'll see a decrease in the pre-teen rank, but the fact is the sport is only getting more popular, which means more kids will want to play it, and while some parents will get scared away by the various studies, as many or more will be enticed by the possibility of scholarships and NFL paydays. The sport will be affected by greater concussion awareness, but probably not in the way you described.

Stewart, I read your and Andy Staples' predictions for the next decade and I noticed an omission. In the section talking about the next star coaches, you only mentioned coordinators from major schools. What about the trend of small college coaches (Division I-AA or lower) moving up to the big time? Last year half of the BCS conference titles were won by former small school guys (Jim Tressel at Ohio State, Brian Kelly at Cincinnati and Chip Kelly at Oregon). So who are the small college coaches that you think could make a splash in the future?
-- Casey, Cincinnati

Two of them joined the I-A head-coaching ranks this year. I expect good things from Mike London, the former Richmond head coach who replaced Al Groh at Virginia. He seems perfectly suited for that job, having worked in Charlottesville as an assistant (much like Tressel did at Ohio State before taking over at Youngstown State) before gaining valuable head coaching experience. The Cavaliers may be in for a rough first couple of years, but could perhaps emerge as an ACC title contender down the road.

The other is Bobby Hauck, the former Montana coach who took the Grizzlies to consecutive I-AA national championship games before taking over at UNLV last winter. UNLV is a tough job -- no one's won there consistently since the late 1970s/early '80s -- but he arrives at a time when the Mountain West is gaining respect (which it admittedly might lose if BYU defects), making the school a more attractive draw to recruits. If the former Rick Neuheisel assistant has success there, I could see him becoming a Pac-10 head coach down the line.