Five Cuts: Strong NLCS pitching matchup heightens interest, more

PHILADELPHIA -- Five cuts after the Yankees stunned the Rangers Friday night in Game 1 of the ALCS:

1. The hottest ticket in baseball means people are willing to pay hundreds of dollars for what they know -- maybe even hope - could very well be a 1-0 game. Welcome back, baseball. The rabid anticipation of the NLCS Game 1 matchup between Roy Halladay of Philadelphia and Tim Lincecum of San Francisco is the official barometer that the game has reached its proper equilibrium -- that it doesn't need to be tricked up by juiced up players and slugfests to be fun.

I've always believed the concept that fans love home runs was overrated. There are limits to such love. Ballparks in the late innings of 9-2 games are empty -- a movie not worth sticking around for the ending. What fans love are competitive games in which the home team wins and there is drama attached to each inning. And the Testing Era is giving us more of those games than ever.

This season there were more games decided by one run (732) and more games decided by two runs or less (1,181) than in any season in baseball history. That includes the past 13 seasons with 30 teams.

To be fair, to account for the increase in total games caused by expansion, when you look at close games as a percentage of all games, you are about as likely to see a close game today as you were a hundred years ago -- and much more likely to see one than in 2001, the last year before the union finally agreed to a Basic Agreement that included testing for performance-enhancing drugs. Check out these comparisons of the percentage of close games in three selected seasons:

Tonight is a big night for baseball. It is the most anticipated game of the year, perhaps the most hyped postseason game since Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. What's so cool about it is that nobody expects many runs to be scored. The pitching brilliance of rugged, broad-shouldered Halladay and lithe, long-haired Lincecum is an epic matchup of star proportions that has been a long time coming.

2. Defense won't rest

Don't be surprised if defense continues to be a major factor in the LCS.

"What's great about these games," said Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, "is I think that the fans understand that every game could be decided by one key at-bat. You don't know when that will be. That makes every at-bat, every run meaningful.

"The players know it, too. I think that's why you might be seeing some of the defensive mistakes we've seen this postseason. Look at the Reds. They were as surehanded as any team during the season."

The Reds, Rays and Braves all checked out of the first round with defensive breakdowns. An error by Texas center fielder Josh Hamilton last night in ALCS Game 1 put the go-ahead run on third base instead of second. There simply are not enough runs to be had any more to cover up such mistakes.

3. Lincecum's slider is devastating

I spoke to Phillies hitters Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard about the way Lincecum pitched against Atlanta in the NLDS, and all of them made the same observation: they've never seen Lincecum throw a slider the way he threw it against the Braves.

Lincecum threw 20 sliders against Atlanta (many of which were misidentified as changeups, such is the downward bite of the pitch), and 16 of them were strikes. The pitch has a devastating tilt to it and results in frequent swings and misses on what are pitches out of the strike zone.

What is so amazing about the pitch is that Lincecum has been throwing his slider like this only since the middle of September. He is 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA. The Phillies are disadvantaged tonight if only because they never have seen Lincecum with this weapon. Just ask the Braves (14 punchouts and 31 swings and misses, a season high in MLB by one pitcher) what it's like to face Lincecum under those circumstances.

Howard, when asked how a hitter might deal with such a wipeout pitch, said, "You have to see the pitch up -- or hit the fastball and not worry about it."

The adaptation of the slider is just one more reason why Lincecum is the successor to Pedro Martinez, a pitching genius who can reinvent himself as needed and use several pitches as put-away pitches. He came up armed with a mid-90s "rising" four-seam fastball, lost velocity, developed one of the best changeups in the big leagues, refined his two-seamer, and now has taught himself a wipeout slider in the middle of a pennant race.

Lincecum always has been a remarkable pitcher because of the force he generates from his delivery. But his athleticism and pitching intellect have made him all the more amazing.

4. Texas' stunning collapse

That was one monumental collapse by the Texas Rangers in the eighth inning of ALCS Game 1.

You can question the bullpen decisions by manager Ron Washington. You can wonder why third baseman Michael Young was playing on the infield grass with Derek Jeter up and holding a four-run lead. You can wonder why first baseman Jorge Cantu was still on the field with six outs to go with a lead. You can wonder why Hamilton kicked a ground ball single, yielding a key base. You can wonder how Ian Kinsler can possibly get picked off first base for the first out in the bottom of the inning.

But this is really where the inning fell apart: Darren Oliver came into a 5-2 game and walked the only two batters he faced. That's where the game fell apart for Texas. There was no recovering from handing the Yankees two base runners without an out. Oliver never gave his team a chance to get out of it.

5. Surging Cano

Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano has established himself as one of the best pure hitters in baseball.

Here's a sure sign of it: you can't gain an advantage by matching up lefthanders against him. The guy who led all hitters this year with home runs off lefties did it again last night with two huge hits against pitchers who typically own lefties:

• C.J. Wilson had allowed no homers in 171 plate appearances by left-handed hitters -- until Cano smashed a homer off him.

• Clay Rapada had allowed one hit in 19 at-bats to lefties -- until Cano laced a game-tying single off the lefty reliever in the eighth.

That was total respect the Rangers showed Cano in the ninth inning. The Rangers had first base open, two outs and a left-hander, Derek Holland, on the mound with right-handed hitter Alex Rodriguez at bat and Cano on deck. Cano is so scary right now that the Rangers preferred to have a left-hander pitch to Rodriguez instead of Cano. Holland retired Rodriguez on a pop fly.

The message was clear: be very afraid of Cano, no matter who is pitching.