| 1 |
 |
QB |
Cam
Newton |
Auburn |
Jr. |
6-6 |
250 |
|
I'm not convinced that Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is out of the running in Carolina, and I still think the
Panthers would love to trade down a few spots and land more picks. But it does seem like Carolina is starting to focus like a
laser on Newton, under the theory that he offers the largest potential impact for a franchise that needs an infusion of hope
and a fresh start. Newton comes with risk, but not JaMarcus Russell-level risk.
|
| 2 |
 |
DE-DT |
Marcell
Dareus |
Alabama |
Jr. |
6-4 |
306 |
|
That 31st-ranked run defense in Denver should make for an easy card to turn in on draft night. It's hard to imagine Dareus not
being the first real building block as the Broncos transition back to a 4-3 defense under new head coach John Fox. LSU
cornerback Patrick Peterson is likely the only other name under consideration.
|
| 3 |
 |
QB |
Blaine
Gabbert |
Missouri |
Jr. |
6-5 |
235 |
|
Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller seems to have emerged as the consensus choice for the Bills in NFL mockdom, but I
still see Buffalo reasoning that it's the right year and the right draft slot to take a franchise quarterback. You could take
Gabbert and still play Ryan Fitzpatrick most of this season, following the Jon Kitna/Carson Palmer model in Cincinnati, circa
2003.
|
| 4 |
 |
WR |
A.J.
Green |
Georgia |
Jr. |
6-4 |
212 |
|
With no top 10 quarterback option to tempt them, the Bengals won't have to over-think anything. They'll take Green and happily
land one of the league's future stars. It also gives Cincy the play-making receiver that Chad Ochocinco wishes he still was.
|
| 5 |
 |
LB |
Von
Miller |
Texas A&M |
Sr. |
6-3 |
243 |
|
You can never have enough pass rushers and Miller is this year's best bet to account for rookie impact off the edge. At
quarterback, the Cardinals are still more likely to be in the market for veterans Kevin Kolb or Marc Bulger than any draft
prospect.
|
| 6 |
 |
DE |
Robert
Quinn |
North Carolina |
Jr. |
6-5 |
270 |
|
With Da'Quan Bowers slip-sliding his way down draft boards -- one team told me he's definitely no longer top 10 material --
the Browns will turn to Quinn and still get the pass rush boost they seek. Alabama receiver Julio Jones is the option you hear
if Cleveland goes offense, but No. 6 is a little higher slot than most teams would feel comfortable taking him.
|
| 7 |
 |
CB |
Patrick
Peterson |
LSU |
Jr. |
6-1 |
222 |
|
With enough QB options to be had in the second round or later in the first, the 49ers are in great shape to land one of the
draft's top-rated prospects in Peterson and worry about finding their next starting passer after that. San Francisco's need
and slot should align perfectly in this case.
|
| 8 |
 |
DT |
Nick
Fairley |
Auburn |
Jr. |
6-5 |
298 |
|
Some teams are wary of Fairley, believing he's a character-issue risk not worth taking. Tennessee has been down that road
before, and you wonder if the Titans will have less tolerance for it under new coach Mike Munchak than they did in the Jeff
Fisher era? Fairley could slip out of the top 10, but with former Auburn defensive line coach Tracy Rocker now in the same job
with the Titans, Fairley should have at least one important fan in the building.
|
| 9 |
 |
OT |
Tyron
Smith |
USC |
Jr. |
6-5 |
280 |
|
No free agency means the Cowboys can't go shopping for a replacement at Marc Colombo's right tackle slot unless they get it
done in the draft. Dallas could investigate trading up to No. 6 Cleveland in pursuit of Peterson, or maybe moving down to acquire picks and still get an offensive tackle later in the first round. But if the Cowboys stay put, Smith, the
draft's top-rated tackle, seems like the right pick at the right value.
|
| 10 |
 |
WR |
Julio
Jones |
Alabama |
Jr. |
6-4 |
220 |
|
Bowers falling out of the top 10 means Quinn is already gone, so I'm back to giving the Redskins the play-making receiver they
covet in Jones. Washington probably would like to move down and recoup some of the picks it lacks in rounds three or four, but
unless the Rams want to come up for Jones, there's probably not a likely trade partner to be had.
|
| 11 |
 |
CB |
Prince
Amukamara |
Nebraska |
Sr. |
6-1 |
205 |
|
While most mockers continue to project the Texans adding a pass rusher to their defensive front seven (J.J. Watt, Cameron
Jordan, Aldon Smith or Quinn are the likely suspects), how can Houston pass on the draft's second highest-rated cornerback
with a secondary that was atrocious last season? It's all about beating the Colts in Houston, and Amukamara might help finally
get that job done.
|
| 12 |
 |
DE |
Cameron
Jordan |
California |
Sr. |
6-4 |
283 |
|
Spoiler alert: I've got the Vikings trading back into the first round with No. 28 New England in pursuit of quarterback Jake
Locker of Washington. But I don't see Minnesota passing on Jordan to reach and take a quarterback at No. 12. Jordan
meets a need at defensive end and his stock has continued to climb throughout the pre-draft scouting process.
|
| 13 |
 |
OT |
Anthony
Castonzo |
Boston College |
Sr. |
6-7 |
308 |
|
The Lions are said to be intrigued with the idea of finding an elite pass-rushing prospect like Bowers still available at No.
13, but if I'm Detroit I'd be scared off by the possibility the ex-Clemson defensive end might require a risky microfracture
surgery on his knee. The improving Lions don't need to take chances like that. They just need to keep adding solid pieces to
the roster, and Castonzo easily qualifies.
|
| 14 |
 |
DT |
Corey
Liuget |
Illinois |
Jr. |
6-3 |
300 |
|
The Rams also seek an impact receiver, but they have a better chance of finding one in the second round than they do a
starting defensive tackle, which is why the underrated Liuget is the smart choice. He's a playmaker inside, and an
ex-defensive coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo knows the value of having that kind of player in the middle of your defensive
line.
|
| 15 |
 |
RB |
Mark
Ingram |
Alabama |
Jr. |
5-10 |
215 |
|
Maybe I'm being stubborn about the Dolphins, but I still think Ingram makes the most sense for a Miami team that wraps up a
good bit of its identity in the running game. Florida guard-center Mike Pouncey is the chic pick to go to the Dolphins at No.
15, but I wouldn't pass on Ingram and give him reason to want to beat you for the next five to seven years.
|
| 16 |
 |
DE |
Ryan
Kerrigan |
Purdue |
Sr. |
6-4 |
263 |
|
Jaguars general manager Gene Smith is starting to earn respect within the league for his willingness to draft the kind of
prospect who rates a solid double, rather than swinging for the fences and maybe striking out. That's Kerrigan. He's going to
be a solid pro and improve your team. In contrast, Bowers is still available, but his boom-bust quotient is far higher than
Smith prefers.
|
| 17 |
 |
DE |
J.J.
Watt |
Wisconsin |
Jr. |
6-6 |
292 |
|
The Patriots, as always, are willing to move around on draft weekend. But I think they'll stick with their No. 17 pick and
snatch up Watt to address their need for a 3-4 defensive end. It's at No. 28 where I expect New England to vacate the slot,
dealing with a team (I have guessed Minnesota) intent on landing a quarterback late in the first round.
|
| 18 |
 |
DE-LB |
Aldon
Smith |
Missouri |
Jr. |
6-5 |
260 |
|
The Chargers could use a 3-4 defensive end, so Temple's Muhammad Wilkerson is another option. But in Smith they'd be getting a
potential 3-4 outside linebacker with edge pass-rushing skills, helping offset the disappointing production turned in by 2009
first-round pick Larry English.
|
| 19 |
 |
G-C |
Mike
Pouncey |
Florida |
Sr. |
6-4 |
310 |
|
This feels like the right slot for Pouncey, who would give the Giants some much-needed youth at offensive line. Pouncey
figures to start his NFL career at guard and then transition to center at some point, and New York in time will have use of
him in both slots.
|
| 20 |
 |
DE |
Da'Quan
Bowers |
Clemson |
Jr. |
6-4 |
275 |
|
With the young and improved Bucs in desperate need of more pass rush, they're the right team in the right position to take a
chance on Bowers and end his first-round free fall. Tampa Bay might understandably be nervous about drafting another Clemson
defensive end in the first round after spending the fourth overall pick on Gaines Adams in 2007, but Bowers' potential as a
pass rusher makes him a good value at No. 20.
|
| 21 |
 |
OT |
Gabe
Carimi |
Wisconsin |
Jr. |
6-7 |
327 |
|
Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli likes tough players, and Carimi is one of this draft's best in that department. Other
options like Baylor nose tackle Phil Taylor, UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers and Georgia outside linebacker Justin Houston
all come with some question marks. Carimi doesn't. He'll walk in the door as a solid starter at right tackle.
|
| 22 |
 |
OT |
Nate
Solder |
Colorado |
Sr. |
6-8 |
314 |
|
Other than a baby-sitter or two, I can't think of anything new papa-of-twins Peyton Manning might welcome more than a little
first-round love at offensive tackle by the Colts. Solder's forte is pass blocking, so he'd show up in Indy already knowing
plenty about what the Colts do best.
|
| 23 |
 |
OT |
Danny
Watkins |
Baylor |
Sr. |
6-3 |
310 |
|
Guard and tackle are two of the Eagles' biggest needs, and Watkins can play both spots. A former fireman who grew up playing
hockey in British Columbia, Canada, Watkins is already 26, but he's a mature and reliable presence who would instantly upgrade
a Philly offensive line that was decimated by injuries last season.
|
| 24 |
 |
DT-DE |
Muhammad Wilkerson |
Temple |
Jr. |
6-5 |
305 |
|
The Saints are looking for an upgrade on their defensive front and Wilkerson is the highest-rated defensive line prospect
remaining. Teams like No. 11 Houston and No. 18 San Diego are thought to be considering him as a 3-4 defensive end, but he'd
give New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams a versatile player who is both stout against the run and capable of
penetrating and making plays in the backfield.
|
| 25 |
 |
QB |
Andy
Dalton |
TCU |
Sr. |
6-2 |
215 |
|
I'm not budging off my mock 4.0 belief that the Seahawks are strongly considering Dalton, who is gaining more fans within NFL
scouting circles as this long pre-draft season unfolds. Dalton, Locker and Ponder seem to be in competition to be the third
quarterback selected, but it's the steady and experienced Dalton who is now viewed as the most NFL-ready of all.
|
| 26 |
 |
CB |
Jimmy
Smith |
Colorado |
Sr. |
6-2 |
205 |
|
He carries legitimate character-issue red flags, but Smith to the Ravens is still my hunch, with a caveat. Just as it did in
last year's first round, Baltimore likely will be willing to trade down with some team eager to take a quarterback (it was
Denver coming after Tim Tebow at No. 25 in 2010). Teams like Tennessee, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Miami and San Francisco all
make some sense as potential trade partners. And the Ravens could probably still draft Smith somewhere early in the second
round.
|
| 27 |
 |
DE |
Adrian
Clayborn |
Iowa |
Sr. |
6-4 |
285 |
|
Clayborn's health issues have been well-chronicled, but his top 20 grade makes him a good value for a Falcons team intent on
beefing up its pass rush. Ohio State defensive end Cameron Heyward is another solid option for Atlanta, but Clayborn is the
better pass rusher, and that's the Falcons' greater need.
|
| 28* |
| QB |
Jake
Locker |
Washington |
Sr. |
6-2 |
231 |
|
*PROJECTED TRADE: Predicting the Patriots will make a draft-day trade isn't exactly going out on a limb, because that's
just how they roll in New England. In our purported deal, the Vikings get their quarterback of the future (and maybe present)
in Locker, and New England gets even wealthier in terms of future draft picks. If the Pats keep this pick, an offensive tackle
like Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod or a running back like Illinois's Mikel Leshoure makes sense.
|
| 29 |
 |
OT |
Derek
Sherrod |
Mississippi State |
Sr. |
6-6 |
312 |
|
I think the Bears are hoping Baylor offensive tackle-guard Danny Watkins lingers all the way to 29th, but I predict they're
going to be disappointed. Sherrod becomes the best available tackle prospect, and Chicago offensive line coach Mike Tice gets
some new talent to work with in 2011.
|
| 30 |
 |
DT |
Phil
Taylor |
Baylor |
Sr. |
6-3 |
334 |
|
Taylor has unusual athleticism for a guy who goes 334 pounds, and he'd be a long-term replacement for the released Kris
Jenkins at nose tackle. North Carolina defensive tackle Marvin Austin is another prospect who might crack the first round, and
the Jets could have their pick between he and Taylor.
|
| 31 |
 |
OT |
Marcus
Cannon |
TCU |
Sr. |
6-5 |
358 |
|
The Steelers' need at cornerback could prompt them to reach just a bit for either Miami's Brandon Harris or Texas's Aaron
Williams, but their offensive line requires attention as well. Cannon is a borderline first-round prospect, but at 6-5, 358
pounds he has both the size and footwork that Pittsburgh looks for.
|
| 32 |
 |
DE |
Cameron
Heyward |
Ohio State |
Sr. |
6-5 |
288 |
|
The Packers would continue their winning streak if they find Heyward waiting for them at the end of the first round. He has the size and disruption skills to perfectly replace free-agent-to-be Cullen Jenkins at defensive end in Green Bay's 3-4
formation, and coordinator Dom Capers will love his intensity and ability to stop the run.
|
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