For every contender, a playoff goal

On the eve of the playoffs I'm picking the Lakers to beat Boston in the NBA Finals, though I continue to question my choice in the East -- Miami may yet become the best postseason team in the conference ...

Rating The Four Tiers Of Playoff Contenders

There are four levels of playoff agendas as the NBA embarks on its two-month tournament. Be aware that many of the teams may not agree with these forecasts.

1. Nothing less than a championship. At least four members of this elite group -- the two-time defending champion Lakers, the defending Eastern champion Celtics, the four-time champion Spurs, the ultra-ambitious Heat and the ever-tantalizing Mavericks -- will be disappointed in mid-June or earlier. The turbulent season-long journeys of the Lakers and Celtics are well known already, and their issues need not be repeated here.

Series Previews: Lakers-Hornets | Celtics-Knicks

The Spurs, however, have been an overlooked contender.

"Are they good enough to win it?" asked a rival head coach involved in these playoffs. "Probably not."

The Spurs don't engage in trash-talking replies to such skepticism, but their No. 1 record in the West relates to their stubborn insistence. They've adapted wisely to this new era's perimeter-based style of play, and their three stars are capable of doing whatever it takes. Last year during their opening-round upset of Dallas, the Spurs looked like the best team in the West. Then they went unexpectedly flat against the surprising Suns, thereby ceding the conference championship to Los Angeles.

But their circumstances are entirely different this time. Last year they were fighting injuries and pulled themselves together just in time to knock off the Mavs; this year they've been on top of the West to the very end, enabling them to withstand a late-season sprained ankle suffered by Tim Duncan (though more worrisome now is the hyperextended right elbow injury sustained Wednesday by Manu Ginobili). The Spurs are an unusual underdog that could lose in the second round or ride home-court advantage all the way through June, and the latter is surely their expectation.

Series Preview: Spurs vs. Grizzlies

In Miami, the Heat are peaking right on time. They're only 4-9 against the league's top five opponents and 18-19 against teams that are .500 or better, but look more closely at their closing five weeks: They finished 15-3 overall and 3-0 against the Lakers, Spurs and Celtics, beating that trio by a combined 59 points. They'll have home-court advantage against everyone in the East except for the inexperienced Bulls, and they enter the postseason with a more settled rotation than the Celtics. There isn't a team the Heat can't beat in a seven-game series.

Series Preview: Heat vs. 76ers

Some will scoff at the Mavericks' inclusion on this list, but consider the diversity of their weapons. Dirk Nowitzki is no longer simply a mismatch at the three-point line; he is now a versatile low-post threat who seeks out contact and the resulting free throws. Though the Mavs haven't defended so well lately, Tyson Chandler's leadership in the paint gives them hope of reclaiming their early-season form. Jason Kidd is a terrific three-point shooter under pressure, and the availability of Jose Barea and Rodrigue Beaubois (assuming he isn't sidelined by a foot injury) enable him to avoid defending the small, explosive point guards.

The Mavs' little displays of in-fighting recently show a feistiness that hasn't always existed in Dallas. If the Mavs can survive their opening round against Portland, they'll enter Round 2 against the Lakers with no outside pressure -- they and they alone will believe they can pull off that upset, which is not a bad role to play.

Series Preview: Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers

2. Conference or NBA Finals. The Bulls, Thunder and Magic all have reason to aim for the championship. But it won't be at all fair to criticize them for falling short.

Is Derrick Rose capable of leading Chicago to the title this season? The answer is yes ... but it's not reasonable to say he should, because he has never reached the second round, and his roster, as successful as it's been, is still under construction. His expedition is going to be highly interesting -- to see how he adapts as the intensity and opposing defenses attempt to swarm him round by round. As well as he has played this season, we all know he can play at an even higher plane. But NBA history insists (as Michael Jordan himself can affirm) that players of Rose's exceptional talent must lose in the playoffs years before they can celebrate in the end.

Series Preview: Bulls vs. Pacers

The Thunder's Kevin Durant is in the same position. His team has been made more dangerous by the presence of center Kendrick Perkins, who has improved Oklahoma City's defense. This team looks to be as promising in its conference as the Bulls are in theirs. But no one should complain if OKC isn't able to beat the Spurs or Lakers (though it will be under pressure to prevail in the opening round against the threatening Nuggets -- pressure that will be helpful for Durant's long-term development).

Series Preview: Thunder vs. Nuggets

The Magic made the Finals two years ago and are not without talent around Dwight Howard, but the team's play has yet to equal the sum of its expensive parts. It was always going to be difficult to fit everyone together following the December makeover.

Series Preview: Magic vs. Hawks