Posted: Thursday October 13, 2011 10:18AM ; Updated: Thursday October 13, 2011 12:38PM
Peter King
Peter King>WEEKEND PICKOFF

NFL Week 6
 
Last week: 8-5 (.615); Season: 58-19 (.753)
 
Sunday, Oct. 16
 
1 p.m. ET (FOX) Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Uh-oh. The fans at the Georgia Dome, lovebirds six weeks ago, turn boo-birds. I've been saying this for weeks: The Panthers are a far different team with Cam than without. (Duh.) Average score of 2010 games: Foe 26, Carolina 12. Average score of 2011 games: Foe 26, Carolina 23. Newton should be able to take advantage of a generous Falcons secondary.
 
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
The Jags don't have it in them to spring an upset. They did in the '07 playoffs. Not now.
 
1 p.m. ET (FOX) Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1)
Don't ask me why. If I have to pick one reason, I pick Mike Vick remembering what he did the last time he was at FedEx, which is play the best game a quarterback has played in recent years: four passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, 413 total yards, no turnovers. But really, I just think at some point the Eagles are going to play like the players they are.
 
1 p.m. ET (FOX) St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)
Aaron Rodgers, among his many Monopoly numbers to start the season, is the first quarterback ever to start the season with a rating over 100 in each of his first five games. Six, anyone?
 
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2)
I'm the only one in the media who actually can figure out the Giants. When their running game is healthy (Brandon Jacobs and Chris Snee are iffy for the game) and their pass-rush is strong (Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are iffy as well), the Giants can beat any team in the land. Without them, they can lose to Seattle. Ergo, this prediction. Plus this Ryan Fitzpatrick guy can play.
 
1 p.m. ET (FOX) San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0)
Through Week 5 last year: Lions/Niners 1-9. Through Week 5 this year: Lions/Niners 9-1. I love this game. How do you not love it? What it'll come down to in Detroit, I believe, is San Francisco struggling to keep the Lions defensive front from beating up Alex Smith, and I don't see Smith getting away unscathed. It'd help if leading wideout Josh Morgan hadn't suffered a broken ankle and hadn't been lost for the year in garbage time of a 45-point win last week.
 
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
Last spring, Colts coach Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen spent a day with TCU quarterback Andy Dalton in Fort Worth. Worked him out. Interviewed him. Put him up on the board. Had a meal with him. "Good leadership qualities and a good player," Caldwell said this week. "We were impressed with him." So much so that the Colts might have taken him in the second round as the long-term Peyton Manning heir if the Bengals hadn't beaten them to it. If the Colts had drafted Andy Dalton instead of Anthony Castonzo in the first round last spring, I'd be reversing this score.
 
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2)
The last time these teams met in Oakland, Josh McCown, LaMont Jordan and Ronald Curry were the Raiders' key guys on offense. Uh, they're better now. And they'll be playing with a full house going nuts with a pregame Al Davis tribute.
 
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
I don't think the loss of Mario Williams is a death knell for the Texans, but no Williams and no Andre Johnson make the Texans a .500 team, not an 11-win one.
 
4:15 p.m. ET (FOX) New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Weird Stat of the Weekend: While the Bucs have split their last four with the Saints, the oddity is that those two wins have come at the Superdome. Drew Brees must like the great outdoors. In Tampa, the Saints have won 38-7 and 31-6 in the last two years. Two reasons this one should be closer for the Bucs: Embarrassment (after losing by 45 last week in San Francisco) and a better defensive line. It won't be enough to hold down Brees.
 
4:15 p.m. ET (FOX) Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Tom Brady's 31st straight regular-season home win will be a fun game. Lots of big plays, including a couple by DeMarcus Ware. But I like the Patriots because they're more trustworthy late in games. Throughout games, actually. Encouraged by the way the Pats played on defense against the Jets too.
 
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)
Another good game for the Sunday night crew. Another great game for Jared Allen. Imagine how excited the NFL sack leader is about seeing Lance Louis and J'Marcus Webb on tape this week.
 
Monday, Oct. 17
 
8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3)
"People want to throw dirt on us," Rex Ryan said the other day. They will if the 0-4 Dolphins come north and win on Monday night. I just don't trust anything the Jets are doing on offense. It must take some lack of faith for me to pick Matt Moore to win a national TV game on the road.
 

 
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