Scouts weigh in on NBA prospects to watch during March Madness
Kentucky freshman Anthony Davis is the clear front-runner for the top draft pick
Bradley Beal has struggled with his shot, but has made up for it on the glass
Other players to watch: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Andre Drummond
The 2012 NCAA tournament is finally here, and with it the endless speculation that accompanies each bracket. The 68-team field has been dissected from every angle, and the hunger for information is insatiable. Can Kentucky defend its top overall ranking? Can UNC recover from an injury to John Henson?
Despite immense buildup, one perspective gets lost in the shuffle: that of the NBA. March Madness also provides secondary stage, a final proving ground for top prospects looking to boost their stock before the June 28 draft.
While fans are looking for the next Cinderella, personnel evaluators will seek out the league's next superstar. As the tourney tips off, here are two scouts' takes on college basketball's marquee event, broken down by region.
Top prospect: PF Anthony Davis, Kentucky
This one's a no-brainer. As detailed in last month's stock watch, Davis has become the clear-cut frontrunner for the No. 1 pick. He's wowed scouts with his defensive dominance (157 blocks through March 12, 27 more than anyone else in the nation) and is quickly adding to his offensive repertoire: He displayed range in the SEC tournament, even connecting on a three-pointer against Florida.
"Davis was as good as expected and probably even better because he showed his ability to step up on the floor and make pick-and-pop jump shots," said a Western Conference NBA scout. "I looked around at other scouts and they were rolling their eyes and saying it's over as far as him being the top pick."
With Davis' top draft slot all but guaranteed, the more interesting case becomes his teammate, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The 6-foot-7 freshman swingman has climbed as high as No. 2 in some mock draft, and though he's shown offensive limitations -- he's shooting just 26.1 percent from three (12-of-46) -- he's notched seven double-doubles while establishing himself as an elite defensive presence.
"I couldn't take him at two, but he's probably moved from eight into that four or five category," said another scout. "He's very consistent. Others haven't performed as well, so he's probably gotten their spot."
Player with the most at stake: C Andre Drummond, UConn
Perhaps no player in the potential 2012 draft class evokes more varied reactions than the Huskies' 6-foot-11 freshman. He has the size and athleticism of a future NBA star, but lacks any developed offensive game, as evidenced by his statistical inconsistency. He scored in double-figures in just six of his final 12 contests and is averaging an underwhelming 10.2 points per game.
The NCAA tournament offers a shot at redemption. If Connecticut can dispatch Iowa State (a daunting task considering the recent play of Scott Christopherson and Royce White), it will likely face top-ranked Kentucky in the round of 32. That would pit Drummond against Davis -- a measuring stick game with major lottery implications.
"I'd like to see him against somebody his own size," said the Western Conference scout. "I'd like to see if he takes advantage of his physical strength and responds to the length and athleticism of Davis."
"If Drummond can stay out of foul trouble, be physical and rebound like crazy, then he could be the second pick in the draft," echoed the other scout. "But if he doesn't, if he gets two fouls in two minutes and finishes with four points and five rebounds, people would go, 'Not sold yet.'"
Second-round games to watch: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 South Dakota State; No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Lehigh
Though Baylor is loaded with NBA talent, including potential lottery selections Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, the most intriguing prospect in their second-round matchup may be South Dakota State's Nate Wolters. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound point guard is rapidly rising on many draft boards, and has played admirably against major conference foes: He scored 20, 15 and 34 points in contests at Minnesota, Georgia and Washington, respectively.
"I'd like to see how he can play against NBA size and athleticism and quickness that the Baylor kids have," one of the scouts said. "I'd like to see if he can get in the paint and get shots off like he does against the competition he plays all year long."
In the Duke-Lehigh game, C.J. McCollum will take center stage. The junior shooting guard is listed in the mid- to late-second round of most mocks, and tallied 26 points and seven rebounds against Kansas during the Mountain Hawks' last tournament appearance in 2010. He'll be monitored closely in his head-to-head matchup with Austin Rivers.
"It's a big stage," said the other scout. "If he can make open shots and not get abused defensively, those are things that we'll certainly watch for."
Dream matchup: No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 9 UConn in the Third Round
Regarding first-weekend NCAA tournament locations, expect the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville to be crawling with NBA scouts. A March 17 showdown between the Wildcats and Huskies would feature up to five potential lottery picks (Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Drummond, Jeremy Lamb and Terrence Jones) and a pair of tantalizing head-to-head matchups: Drummond against Davis, and Lamb against Kidd-Gilchrist.
While the battle in the paint would receive top billing, the latter matchup would be equally telling. Lamb's pure scoring potential (17.7 points per game on 48.1 percent shooting) would be tested against an NBA-ready defender, particularly given his slender, and sometimes scrutinized, frame.
"He's gonna beat the s--- out of [Lamb], that's what Gilchrist does," said one of the scouts. "I think the league will watch to see how Lamb responds. He's certainly talented enough to go off, but can he deal with the physical play that he might get from Gilchrist?"
Top prospect: SG Bradley Beal, Florida
The West is by far the weakest region as far as NBA talent is concerned, filled with savvy veteran teams not cut for the professional cloth. Top seeds Michigan State and Missouri are built around college phenoms, and the region, by and large, appears to lack a wealth of first-round talent.
Beal could be the exception. A McDonald's All-American coming out of Chaminade College Prep (Mo.), Beal is averaging 14.6 points as a freshman. And despite failing to live up to his reputation as an elite shooter -- he's converting just 32.9 percent of his threes and 77.5 percent of his free throws -- he's compensated with his size-defying prowess on the glass. He's pulling down 6.5 boards per game, a total that's jumped to 7.8 since Feb. 2, and has all the makings of a lottery-bound prospect.
"He's got a nose for the ball," a scout said. "He rebounds as well as any guard in the country."
"I could see him, best case scenario, going in the eight-to-11 range," said the other scout. "I don't know if he's gonna leave, but he's gonna get everybody's attention if he does."
Player with the most at stake: SF Jae Crowder, Marquette
Had Iona held its 25-point lead over BYU, the prospect with the most to gain would have been point guard Scott Machado. The 6-foot-1 senior led the NCAA in assists (9.9 per game) and tallied 10 in the first half of Tuesday's play-in game before Iona's swift and unprecedented demise. With Weber State's Damian Lillard and Washington's Tony Wroten Jr., both absent from the tournament, Machado could have made a case as one of the nation's premier point guards.
"Especially because the point guard position is so weak this year," said an NBA scout, "I thought he could've played himself up into a higher position if he was able to win a game or two and be a big part of it."
Following his exit, however, the torch gets passed to Crowder, who would've been Machado's second-round opponent. After climbing onto the NBA radar late in the season -- he's averaged 18.8 points and 9.1 rebounds since Jan. 16 -- the undersized 6-6 forward could solidify a spot in June's draft with a head-turning March. That's particularly true if the Golden Eagles can earn an Elite Eight meeting with top-seeded Michigan State, pitting Crowder against a similarly bruising Draymond Green.
"I don't think [Crowder] is a first-round pick," the other scout clarified. "But if you're not on a draft board and get picked in the second round, then obviously you've helped yourself."
Second-round game to watch: No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
Lacking an under-the-radar mid-major prospect, this clash possesses the West's biggest draft ramifications. The Tigers possess a fringe first-rounder in sophomore Will Barton, who has emerged as an offensive force as the season has progressed: He leads Conference USA in scoring (18.1 points), offensive win shares (3.8) and ranks third in effective field-goal percentage (.551).
His slender frame remains an issue (6-5, 165 pounds), but if he can play well against the grind-it-out Billikens -- Saint Louis ranks eighth in the nation in scoring defense -- it could go a long way toward building his reputation as a versatile, and possibly elite, scorer.
"He's a little small, but he plays really hard and gets a lot done for a guy his size," said one of the scouts. "I always put him in the 25-to-35 range and could see him sneaking into the end of the first round."
Dream matchup: No. 2 Missouri vs. No. 7 Florida in the Third Round
While no game would qualify as appointment NBA viewing, a Missouri-Florida matchup would most closely approach the mark. It'd constitute a game of up-and-coming guards, with the Gators' Beal, Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker taking on the Tigers' Marcus Denmon, Kim English and Michael Dixon.
Among the smalls, however, Florida's Patric Young could have a chance to shine. The undersized sophomore forward (6-9, 247) has been an enigma of sorts, averaging just 10.3 points and 6.4 rebounds, but could thrive in an environment where he's the tallest player on the floor.
"If he got on a run, if he started blocking two and a half shots a game and getting 10 rebounds in the tournament, I think he would help himself," a scout said. "I don't know if he's had an off-the-charts season, but he could be a top 20 pick."
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