Revealing the method behind my 2012-13 Naismith Award watch list
It will be surprising if Cody Zeller or Doug McDermott don't win player of the year
Murray State's Isaiah Canaan has the best shot at transcending mid-majordom
Freshman with the most realistic shot at the Naismith: UCLA's Shabazz Muhammad
Something to consider while building a preseason player of the year watch list: Last season's POY finalists were a true freshman (Kentucky's Anthony Davis) and a junior in his first season as a starter (Kansas' Thomas Robinson). Experience and past performance are relevant, but smart projections matter just as much.
My 50-man watch list for the Naismith Award is due on Monday, and in the interest of transparency, I'm running my ballot here along with my selection process. In the simplest terms, I want to have my bases covered. My biggest nightmare is not having the eventual winner on our preseason list.
The most sensible way for me to get to 50 is by using a grouping system. Thus this isn't an in-order ranking of the 50 best players in college hoops; the numbering is merely a way of showing how I reach my final 50.
Group 1 is the Obvious National Player of the Year Frontrunners, of which there are only two:
1. Cody Zeller, Soph. C, Indiana
2. Doug McDermott, Jr. SF, Creighton
I'll be genuinely surprised if Zeller or McDermott doesn't win it. One has the aid of being on the country's No. 1 team, and the other will put up massive scoring numbers in a high-tempo offense.
Group 2 is the Major-Conference Shortlist, consisting of established players I believe will star for highly-ranked teams:
3. DeShaun Thomas, Jr. SF/PF, Ohio State
4. Aaron Craft, Jr. PG, Ohio State
5. Phil Pressey, Jr. PG, Missouri
6. Michael Dixon Jr., Jr. PG/SG, Missouri
7. Trey Burke, Soph., Michigan
8. Pierre Jackson, Sr. PG, Baylor
9. C.J. Leslie, Jr. PF, NC State
10. Kenny Boynton, Sr. SG, Florida
11. Jack Cooley, Sr. PF, Notre Dame
12. Jeff Withey, Sr. C, Kansas
There is a bit of projecting here with Ohio State's Thomas, who played his first two seasons in Jared Sullinger's shadow; and Missouri's Dixon, who came off the bench last season behind Marcus Denmon. But both are high-volume, high-efficiency scorers who'll be household names by season's end.
Withey is included in this group because of his defense, which gets far too little consideration in player of the year votes. He has the potential to be the country's highest-impact defender, and that needs to be acknowledged.
Group 3 is the Non-BCS Conference Shortlist, consisting of established stars from the lesser leagues.
13. Isaiah Canaan, Sr. PG, Murray State
14. Jamaal Franklin, Jr. SG, San Diego State
15. Nate Wolters, Sr. PG, South Dakota State
16. C.J. McCollum, Sr. SG, Lehigh
17. Mike Moser, Jr. PF, UNLV
18. Elias Harris, Sr. PF, Gonzaga
19. Matthew Dellavedova, Sr. PG, St. Mary's
Canaan has the best shot at transcending mid-majordom and joining Zeller and McDermott among the Naismith finalists. The Murray State senior is already well-known after the Racers' long undefeated run last season, and should be considered the country's best scoring point guard.
Group 4 is the Instant-Impact Transfers, of which there's only one worthy candidate:
20. Rotnei Clarke, Sr. PG/SG, Butler
Clarke was a prolific shooter/scorer at Arkansas, and the Bulldogs are desperately in need of offense. He seems well-positioned to put up big numbers.
Group 5 is the Breakout Sophomores, consisting of players who could logically make the leap from "promising freshman" to All-American in their second season. This is where I start making projections:
21. Tony Mitchell, Soph. PF, North Texas
22. Otto Porter, Soph. SF/PF, Georgetown
23. James Michael McAdoo, Soph. PF, North Carolina
24. B.J. Young, Soph. PG/SG, Arkansas
25. Jarnell Stokes, Soph. PF, Tennessee
26. Chane Behanan, Soph., PF, Louisville
27. Kevin Pangos, Soph. PG, Gonzaga
28. Adonis Thomas, Soph. SF, Memphis
29. Michael Carter-Williams, Soph. PG, Syracuse
If Mitchell puts up Blake Griffin-at-Oklahoma-level numbers -- which I think is possible this season -- the fact that he's at North Texas shouldn't hold him back too much in the All-America race. There isn't exactly an abundance of established-star power forwards in the major conferences.
Carter-Williams is the longest projection of all, as he averaged just 2.7 points in 10.3 minutes while playing behind Scoop Jardine and Dion Waiters last season. But he's taking over the starting point-guard gig for the Orange, and he's capable of being a high-teens scorer with a 2-to-1 assist-turnover ratio on an elite team, which would put him in the awards conversation.
Group 6 is the Instant-Impact Freshmen, whom the Naismith Award is wise enough to make eligible for its watch list. The Wooden Award doesn't allow them, which is silly in an era where elite freshmen are capable of leading a team to a national title.
30. Shabazz Muhammad, Fr. SG/SF, UCLA
31. Archie Goodwin, Fr. SG, Kentucky
32. Marcus Smart, Fr. PG, Oklahoma State
33. Nerlens Noel, Fr. C, Kentucky
34. Kyle Anderson, Fr. PG/SF, UCLA
35. Alex Poythress, Fr. PF, Kentucky
36. Anthony Bennett, Fr. PF, UNLV
37. Isaiah Austin, Fr. C, Baylor
Muhammad is the freshman with the most realistic shot at the Naismith Award, given that he's projected as the No. 1 NBA draft pick next season, and would have a clear, major scoring role at UCLA. The problem is that the NCAA has yet to deem him eligible. I have concerns that Muhammad could be suspended for a good chunk of the season, but in the interest of covering my bases, I have to give him a spot.
Despite Noel's ranking as the Class of 2012's No. 1 recruit, it appears that Goodwin could end up as Kentucky's leading scorer this season, so he needs to be included. Smart is the best point guard in the freshman class and should immediately be Oklahoma State's best player.
Group 7 is the Second-Tier Establishment: the major-conference stars whom I think are more of a national POY long-shot than those in Group 2.
38. Christian Watford, Sr. PF, Indiana
39. Gorgui Dieng, Jr. PF, Louisville
40. Peyton Siva, Jr. PG, Louisville
41. Trevor Mbakwe, Sr. PF, Minnesota
42. Andre Roberson, Jr. PF, Colorado
43. Mason Plumlee, Sr. PF, Duke
44. Patric Young, Sr. PF, Florida
45. Lorenzo Brown, Jr. PG, NC State
46. Michael Snaer, Sr. SG/SF, Florida State
47. Rodney McGruder, Sr. SG, Kansas State
If Big Ten defenses over-focus on Zeller, Watford has a chance to be the leading scorer on the nation's No. 1 team. Dieng is a defensive POY candidate who would need to make offensive strides to be considered for the Naismith. Plumlee and Young are NBA-bound big men who've yet to truly have a monster college season. Will it finally happen for either of them?
Group 8 is the Second-Tier Outsiders, or non-BCS stars who are more of a POY long-shot than those in Group 3:
48. D.J. Cooper, Sr. PG, Ohio
49. Khalif Wyatt, Sr. SG, Temple
50. Mike Muscala, Sr., C, Bucknell
Cooper outplayed Burke (a Group 2 guy) in the NCAA tournament and is one of the country's most under-appreciated point guards. Wyatt is a complete scorer who should contend for Atlantic 10 POY honors, and Muscala is the best center the mid-major ranks.
In hopes of avoiding as many "what-about-my-guy" comments as possible, here are players I considered but cut from the following groups:
Group 4 (Instant-Impact Transfers):
Mark Lyons, Sr. PG, Arizona
Aaric Murray, Jr. C, West Virginia
Ryan Harrow, Soph. PG, Kentucky
Lyons will be valuable to the likely Pac-12 champs, but they'll be such a balanced team that it's unlikely a POY contender will emerge. Harrow is a solid point guard who's on a roster with bigger stars.
Group 5 (Breakout Sophomores):
Alex Len, Soph. C, Maryland
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Soph. SG, Georgia
Le'Bryan Nash, Soph. SF, Oklahoma State
Branden Dawson, Soph. SF, Michigan State
Shelden McClellan, Soph. SG, Texas
Myck Kabongo, Soph. PG, Texas
Aaron White, Soph. PF, Iowa
Johnny O'Bryant, Soph. C, LSU
D'Angelo Harrison, Soph. SG, St. John's
Len is being hailed as a future first-rounder, and he may be an All-ACC big man this season, but his freshman stats don't even hint at the productivity level required to chase a POY award. Caldwell-Pope will score in bunches, but POYs don't come from non-NCAA tournament teams. Nash put up solid scoring numbers as a freshman but was so inefficient that I'm hesitant to peg him as a real star.
Group 6 (Instant-Impact Freshmen):
Grant Jerrett, Fr. PF, Arizona
Brandon Ashley, Fr. PF, Arizona
Kaleb Tarczewski, Fr. C, Arizona
Steven Adams, Fr. C, Pittsburgh
Gary Harris, Fr. SG, Michigan State
Ben McLemore, Fr. SG, Kansas
Yogi Ferrell, Fr. PG, Indiana
Arizona's trio are excellent players who seem bound to cancel each other out in a POY race -- and only two of them will start. While I have three Kentucky freshmen on my list, they're all starters who play distinctly different positions.
Group 7 (Second-Tier Establishment):
Tim Frazier, Sr. PG, Penn State
Allen Crabbe, Jr. SG, Cal
Reggie Bullock, Jr. SG/SF, North Carolina
Shabazz Napier, Jr. PG, UConn
Jarred Berggren, Sr. PF, Wisconsin
Reggie Johnson, Sr. PF, Miami
Sean Kilpatrick, Jr. SG, Cincinnati
Brandon Triche, Sr. SG, Syracuse
Seth Curry, Sr. SG, Duke
Solomon Hill, Sr. SF, Arizona
Tim Hardaway Jr., Jr. SG/SF, Michigan
Elijah Johnson, Sr. PG, Kansas
Brock Motum, Sr. PF, Washington State
C.J. Wilcox, Jr. SG, Washington
Frazier is an elite point guard who's essentially out of the POY picture due to the (extremely low) quality of his team. I worry about leaving Bullock and Crabbe off my list the most; they're both talented wing scorers and important veterans on league-title contenders.
Group 8 (Second-Tier Outsiders):
De'Mon Brooks, Jr. PF, Davidson
Jackie Carmichael, Sr. C, Illinois State
Kerron Johnson, Sr. PG, Belmont
Jake Cohen, Sr. PF, Davidson
Javon McCrea, Jr. PF, Buffalo
Brandon Davies, Sr. PF, BYU
Langston Galloway, Jr. SG, St. Joseph's
Ray McCallum, Jr. PG, Detroit
Joe Jackson, Jr. PG/SG, Memphis
DeAndre Kane, Jr. SG, Marshall
Dennis Tinnon, Sr. PF, Marshall
Tony Snell, Jr. SG, New Mexico
Brooks was my final cut from the list of 50. While it's unlikely that he'll actually be a Naismith finalist, he's a vastly under-hyped, highly productive scorer who should help Davidson get back to the NCAA tournament. Carmichael is a late-blooming NBA prospect who'll put up huge rebounding numbers, but it's inevitable that he'll be overshadowed in his own league by McDermott. There's only so much national pub to go around in the Valley.