Posted: Thursday October 4, 2012 1:55PM ; Updated: Thursday October 4, 2012 2:00PM
Peter King
Peter King>WEEKEND PICKOFF

NFL Week 5
 
Last Week: 9-6 (.600); This Season: 31-32 (.492)
 
Thursday, Oct. 4
 
8:20 p.m. ET (NFLN) Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)
I am fixated on this number: 2.7. With Russ Grimm trying to make something of a grab-bag Arizona offensive line, the Cards are averaging 2.7 yards per rush, and they're coming off a marathon Sunday overtime survival test at home, and they've had to travel on a short week. I don't love the Rams right now, but I like them well enough in the refurbished secondary (two TD passes allowed, eight picks, a paltry 6.8 yards per opposing pass attempt) to pick them to pull the mild upset.
 
Sunday, Oct. 7
 
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Another battle of the kid Southwest Conference quarterbacks. Andy Dalton 305 yards, two touchdowns ... Ryan Tannehill 220, one. But it's hard to watch Tannehill right now and not think the Dolphins got it right, picking him in the top 10.
 
1 p.m. ET (FOX) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)
Eight years ago next month, Ben Roethlisberger led his first NFL rout -- 27-3 over Philadelphia in Pittsburgh. Steelers haven't beaten Eagles since, though they've played only once. Roethlisberger will get beat up some in this one, because his line won't be able to hold out Jason Babin and Trent Cole, but he'll man-up and get the Steelers to .500.
 
1 p.m. ET (FOX) Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Valiant win-it-for-Chuck effort by the Colts, and every non-Cheesehead alive will be pulling for the Colts, with rookie coach Chuck Pagano missing due to treatment for leukemia. On another note, a shame this will be the last non-Super Bowl Aaron Rodgers-Andrew Luck head-to-head match until 2016.
 
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
Not sure the Chiefs can hold off the Matt Cassel doubters much longer. Wouldn't be surprised to see Brady Quinn start the second half here if the Chiefs struggle on offense -- and it's not much of a help that the rested Ravens are coming off a 10-day break since their last game.
 
1 p.m. ET (FOX) Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
Intriguing game of the day, and I'd pick Washington if healthy on defense. Robert Griffin III has been borderline brilliant (one interception, 69.4 completion rate, 103.2 rating), and I wouldn't be stunned to see him go off Sunday in the Nation's Capital. But Matt Ryan has played well for four games, and very well under pressure last week to salvage the win over Carolina. I think he makes a play or two more than BobGriff.
 
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Cleveland Browns (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2)
I know it looks like the Browns' 11th loss in a row, but I've got a feeling Brandon Weeden (he never got to start a game in Yankee Stadium as a Yankees pitcher, but at least he'll start a game against the former football tenant of Yankee Stadium) and D'Qwell Jackson (three sacks, two interceptions, a fumble recovery, two blocked passes) make it tougher on the Giants than it should be.
 
4:05 p.m. ET (FOX) Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
The Seahawks make their second straight long flight to try to stay in the playoff hunt. Last week, the pass-rush combo of Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin, monstrous against Green Bay, was shut out against St. Louis, and I can't see them having two lousy weeks in a row, particularly against a line that's gotten Cam Newton hit a lot in the first month of the season.
 
4:05 p.m. ET (FOX) Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)
Trap game. You should be too good for this, Bears. And you will be, because Jay Cutler should have a relatively pressure-free game. Jacksonville's last in the NFL with two sacks.
 
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)
The 13th time's a charm. Tom Brady (8-4 versus Peyton Manning) has a tougher time with this Denver team than he did with Tim Tebow's Broncos last January (now, how hard would that be?), but America will be all the better for it. A superb late-afternoon game Sunday, a battle to the end in Foxboro, and I say Manning's going to have the ball in his hands sometime in the last five minutes with a chance to win.
 
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
Dave Wannstedt's got to be pulling his hair out. The Bills field the best defensive line in football, on paper, and Buffalo's allowing 286 passing yards a game and 4.8 yards per carry. Buck up, Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus. You're too good to be playing this soft. I might suggest watching the relentlessness of Justin Smith and Ray McDonald. Those are two baaaaaad defensive linemen.
 
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)
Thanks God it's October. That's the Titans' mantra after losing September games by 21, 28 and 24 points, sandwiched around the game that now looks totally freaky, the 44-41 win over Detroit. Only hope here is to shut down Adrian Peterson, which I don't see happening.
 
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)
With mentor Sean Payton watching from on high, Drew Brees not only breaks the Johnny Unitas' consecutive-games-with-a-touchdown record, but also breathes life into an 0-4 team on life support.
 
Monday, Oct. 8
 
8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2)
I'm assuming Major League Baseball is going to put the Yankees' Division Series game two, scheduled for Monday, in prime time. Bad news for ESPN. If the Yanks play Monday night, clickers all over the metropolitan area will be switching away from this game around 9:15 Eastern Time Monday evening. Not even sure the Tebow Watch will be able to hold non-Bible Belt viewers.
 

 
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