Reassessing all six AQ conferences after a wild Week 4; more Overtime

After yet another embarrassing weekend, one encapsulated by either Louisiana Tech's 52-24 rout of Illinois or Michigan's interceptions on five consecutive drives against Notre Dame (yes, this really happened), the Big Ten can take heart in one thing: Conference play begins next week. Its teams can only lose to each other.

Conference play began in earnest nationally last weekend, and in light of early-season upsets like Stanford over USC and Kansas State over Oklahoma, now seems like as good a time as any to reassess the state of each of the six AQ conferences. After four weeks, plenty has already changed.

ACC

• Preseason favorite: Florida State

• Current favorite: Florida State. With a 49-37 win over No. 10 Clemson, a game in which the No. 4 'Noles exploded for 667 yards, Jimbo Fisher's team got an early leg up in the Atlantic Division. It also signaled that it's finally ready to live up to its lofty preseason billing. We expected FSU to rely heavily on its touted defense, but through four weeks it also ranks in the top five nationally in total offense (574.5 yards per game).

• Dark horse: Virginia Tech. One should never count out the Hokies, even after a humbling Sept. 15 loss at Pittsburgh. That's especially true given that Frank Beamer's team hosts a key Thursday night showdown against FSU Nov. 8. If you think any team besides the Hokies, 'Noles or Clemson can win the ACC, you probably also own Facebook stock.

Big 12

• Preseason favorite: Oklahoma

• Current favorite: Kansas State. Many may opt for West Virginia or Texas here, but I'm done doubting Bill Snyder's team after Saturday night's 24-19 win in Norman. Collin Klein has matured into a true dual-threat quarterback, and the emergence of former Boston College quarterback-turned-K-State linebacker Justin Tuggle has only bolstered a defense that's athletic enough to slow down the Big 12's pass-heavy offenses.

• Dark horse: TCU. The 3-0 Horned Frogs still have offensive issues to address following the offseason departure of Ed Wesley and the season-ending knee injury to top rusher Waymon James. But Gary Patterson appears to have another top-flight defense on his hands. The Horned Frogs have allowed just one touchdown in three games.

Big East

• Preseason favorite: Louisville

• Current favorite: Louisville. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater cooled his torrid pace in his return to South Florida, as he completed just 19-of-36 passes for 194 yards with two interceptions in a 28-21 win at FIU. But the Cardinals are clearly still the Big East's most talented team. Rutgers, also 4-0 and with consecutive road wins at USF and Arkansas, may not be far behind. The two don't meet until Nov. 29 in what could be a de facto league title game.

• Dark horse: Cincinnati. We don't know all that much about the Bearcats since they've only played two games in 2012. But their Sept. 6 rout of Pittsburgh -- in which Butch Jones' defense blew up the Panthers' offensive line -- looks a lot better now that Pitt beat Virginia Tech. Cincinnati happens to face the Hokies next week in Washington D.C.

Big Ten

• Preseason favorite: Michigan, Michigan State or Wisconsin

• Current favorite: ????. The Big Ten's highest-ranked team, 4-0 Ohio State, is ineligible to win the conference. Its other expected contenders all have dysfunctional offenses. Consider this: Nine of the league's 12 teams are ranked 52nd or lower in total offense. At this point I'm inclined to favor Nebraska, the rare team with a productive quarterback in Taylor Martinez. The Huskers' defense got shredded at UCLA, but they won't face another offense of that caliber for the rest of the year.

• Dark horse: Northwestern. The 4-0 Wildcats defeated three admittedly lightweight BCS-conference foes (Syracuse, Vanderbilt and Boston College) and don't face the three best teams from the Leaders Division: Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue. Pat Fitzgerald's team could conceivably sneak its way to Indianapolis.

Pac-12

• Preseason favorite: USC

• Current favorite: Oregon. Don't say I didn't warn you about the Ducks' defense. Saturday, coordinator Nick Aliotti's group shut out an Arizona team that came in averaging 46 points and 605 yards by notching two pick-sixes and denying six Wildcat trips to the red zone in a 49-0 win. Chip Kelly's normally seamless offense wasn't particularly crisp, and Arizona contained SI cover boy De'Anthony Thomas. But, through four games, first-year quarterback Marcus Mariota is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes.

• Dark horse: Oregon State. The Beavers have played two games. They've beaten two ranked opponents (Wisconsin and UCLA). Oregon State's defense has shut down two renowned running backs, Monteé Ball and Johnathan Franklin, and its offense suddenly has a bevy of weapons. Let's see if Mike Riley's team can keep it up.

SEC

• Preseason favorite: LSU

• Current favorite: Alabama. The Tide have played 16 quarters of nearly flawless defensive football. In the fourth quarter against Florida Atlantic Saturday, 'Bama allowed its first points since the season opener against Michigan. On offense, Quarterback AJ McCarron is the nation's fourth-rated passer and the Eddie Lacy-led rushing attack is averaging more than 200 yards per game. The Nov. 3 showdown in Baton Rouge will get here soon enough.

• Dark horse: Georgia. It's hard to label a top-five team a dark horse, but the Dawgs have the firepower to end the SEC West's title run. Aaron Murray has been sensational, freshman back Todd Gurley is averaging 101.5 yards per game and the Georgia defense is about to improve behind the return of suspended star safety Bacarri Rambo.

One other revision: Boise State, which failed to score an offensive touchdown in last Thursday's painful-to-watch 7-6 win over BYU, is no longer my Mountain West favorite. That nod goes to Nevada, which hosts the Broncos Dec. 1.

Manuel makes his mark

You can decide for yourself whether Florida State asserted itself as a bona fide national title contender with Saturday's showcase win over Clemson. But one thing is certain: Seminoles quarterback E.J. Manuel is primed to do his part.

After FSU fell behind 31-21 in the third quarter, Manuel ignited a 35-point second-half explosion. He amassed a staggering 482 yards of total offense, including career highs for both rushing yards (102 on 12 carries) and passing yards (380 on 27-of-35 attempts), and became the first Seminoles quarterback since Charlie Ward to throw for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in the same game. On a prime time stage, Manuel delivered his most definitive performance to date.

"They were mixing up looks and bringing in blitzes from everywhere and he made plays when he had to," said FSU coach Jimbo Fisher. "I don't remember him making a bad decision all night."

Fisher and Manuel have been tied together for more than five years. Back in June 2007, the Virginia Beach native became the first high-profile quarterback to commit to then-coordinator Fisher, whom Bobby Bowden had hired away from LSU that offseason to resurrect a moribund offense. FSU fans have been waiting for the program's resurrection ever since. Manuel spent three years backing up Christian Ponder, filling in to lead Florida State to victories in the 2009 Gator Bowl and 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl. Last year, however, in his first as the full-time starter, Manuel was beset by injuries and upsets. Though FSU was tabbed with lofty preseason rankings, Manuel -- despite garnering a top-20 passer rating -- remained one of its biggest question marks.

Not anymore.

"I think it was my biggest victory, yes," said Manuel after Saturday's game. "... This is what you signed up for when you come to Florida State -- games like this."

Manuel speaks regularly with Ward, the 1993 Heisman winner who delivered Bowden the first of his two national titles. The 'Noles have spent the past 11 years trying to return to that elite status, and often quarterback was the missing piece.

"I just want to win and leave a legacy at Florida State for our fans," Manuel said.