When
we last saw Augusta National Golf Club, Tiger Woods was
wearing the green jacket and Superman's cape, and we were
no longer laughing hysterically at Jack Nicklaus's
prediction that Woods will win more Masters titles than he
and Arnold Palmer combined.
(They have 10.) Woods's tournament-record score of 18 under par
and his
12-shot margin of victory were so convincing that if Nicklaus
said that Woods will win the next 10 Masters, we
probably
would nod in
agreement.
Some players feel that way too. "What can you
do?" says Tom
Lehman. "You can't just say, 'Oh, well, we're playing for
second,' but I like my chances in the Open a lot better
than in the Masters." Paul Stankowski, who tied for
fifth last year at the
Masters, says, "To beat Tiger at Augusta when he has his A
game is going to be hard. A bad week for him may be eight
under, which is probably good enough to win most
Masters."
Length can tame Augusta, and last year Woods was, on
average, 25 yards longer than the field and never hit more
than a seven-iron to the par-4s. Toss in the fact that he
was 22 under on the final 63 holes, and it's easy to
understand why everyone says
he will be the favorite at Augusta for years to come. Still,
if you are ready to pencil Woods in as a mortal lock next
week, I offer this
advice: Don't.
In fact, there is no way he is going to win the Masters
this year. Call me crazy, but it's a safe bet. Consider
what Davis
Love III says: "Tiger's good, but he can't win every year. Not even
Nicklaus did that
... although he
did win six." Or this from Brad
Faxon: "Last year was probably the best week Tiger's ever
had. If he's not on his game, he's not going to win."
Faxon might have also pointed out that Woods
hasn't come close to that level of play
since.
The one club that could betray Woods is his
putter. He didn't three-putt once last year. A repeat of that
performance is about as likely as his serving fried chicken
and collard greens at the champions' dinner. Tour regulars
will tell you that Woods is
only a B
putter. Did you see him last month at
Doral? Tee to green, he was the best player in the tournament, but
all week he missed putts that a 10 handicapper could have
made. The same thing happened the week before in Los
Angeles—six- and
eight-footers sliding left. If Woods putts like that at Augusta,
he'll be helping someone else slip on the green jacket come
Sunday.
It's also worth remembering that Woods
hasn't won a
PGA Tour event since the Western Open nine months ago, that he
fell off the radar screen in the other majors and got his
head handed to him in the Ryder Cup. Sure, he beat Ernie
Els in Thailand this
year with a dramatic closing charge (and a lackluster
final-round 73 from Els), but back home he has been in
contention on Sunday five times this season and has been
beaten by
Phil Mickelson, Scott Simpson, Billy Mayfair, Michael Bradley
and Els. That's
not a slump, but it's not indicative of a great golfer on a
roll,
either.
Course management is another potential problem. To put it
more bluntly, Woods is too reckless. The Masters was the
only
major in which he
didn't post big numbers born of overconfidence. One of the
things that makes Woods so compelling is his
willingness to challenge a course, especially after
he has hit one into the
boonies. Perhaps you have
seen him in a tee box
recently, grimacing in disgust, one arm extended to the
right? Bad lie, green blocked by a tree, water left. Time
to lay up? Hell, no. Galleries love it, but this approach
cost him dearly in the U.S. and British Opens. Maybe he has
learned from that. But
maybe he
hasn't. In the tee box at 12 on Sunday, surveying that
insidious par-3 with Rae's Creek in front and the pin to
the right, will Woods go for the flag and risk a double
bogey, or will he be patient enough to take his par and do
his scoring on
the upcoming
par-5s?
Here's one last reason to doubt Woods's chances of
repeating history. In nearly two thirds of a century, only
Nicklaus and Nick Faldo have won consecutive Masters. Woods
could be the third, but don't engrave his name on the
Masters trophy just yet. One
thing Greg Norman has taught us: History
isn't written until
after it's
made.
Second Thoughts 
