California dreamin'

Could the feel-good Angels win it all again?

If you happened to miss my press conference yesterday, the answer is: Yes, I'm still angry. Why shouldn't I be? I felt it was truly out of line for Joanna Cohen, the editor of this mailbag, to publicly question my after-hours conduct. What does that have to do with the quality of my work? "We feel that Jeff's mailbags last season were not up to snuff," The Boss said. "Maybe if he attended fewer strip clubs and more baseball games, this wouldn't be the case."

Not up to snuff? Look at my stats: In 2001, I wrote nine mailbags and answered 123 questions. Last season, eight mailbags and 98 questions. Sure, I slipped a bit. But did you ever hear me complain about my sore thumb? Or the "I" key that kept popping off my laptop keyboard?

Is it my fault that young ladies swarm to the irresistible glow of a mailbag writer? Is it my fault that baseball-writer groupies are people, too?

No matter. This spring I'm dedicating myself to the mailbag -- just to prove The Boss wrong.

On to your questions ...

Everyone (and by everyone I mean the "experts") seems to underestimate the Angels by saying that last season was an anomaly. Having retained the majority of its players, the team is as good as it was last year. The only difference is that now the Angels have lots of postseason experience. Why is it inconceivable that they could repeat what they did last season -- play hard for 162 games, get into the playoffs and go far because of good team chemistry, great fundamentals and maybe some luck? Shouldn't the Angels at least be mentioned among the favorites?
--Sam D., Stanford, Calif.

Sammie, Sammie, Sammie. I admire the When You Wish Upon a Star Disney-esque aw-shuckness of your faith in the Angels. Unfortunately, like every good fairy tale, this one won't last. The Angels won in 2003 not because they were the best team, but because -- from beginning to end -- their season was sprinkled with a whole lot of pixie dust. Injuries were at a minimum (No starter appeared in fewer than Bengie Molina's 122 games). On-the-verge-of-retirement war horses such as Kevin Appier stepped up. Mediocre journeymen ( Scott Spiezio, Al Levine ) excelled.

This year, the Halos are doomed. If nothing else, it's Murphy's Law. Is 34-year-old Tim Salmon going to have another spectacular season? Unlikely. Is David Eckstein a .290 hitter? Probably not. Is Molina a good major league player? No.

Will the Angels return to the playoffs? Nope. Nope. Nope.

Do you think the Red Sox are better than they were last year, with the addition of not-so-prominent players Jeremy Giambi, David Ortiz, Todd Walker and Bill Mueller, the loss of closer Ugueth Urbina and the expectation that they'll use the closer-by-committee scheme?
--Josh Magid, Newton, Mass.

Although I'm not sold on the closer-by-committee plan (especially if a big part of that committee is Mike Timlin ), Boston has definitely upgraded. The greatest enhancement comes at first base, where ex-Marlin Kevin Millar -- should he stay healthy -- can be penciled in for 25 homers and 90 RBIs (In other words, 22 homers and 61 RBIs more than Tony Clark offered). Equally beneficial will be ex-Twin/Rockie/Red Todd Walker taking over at second base, former home of Rey Sanchez . Walker isn't the smoothest glove around (his NL-best .989 fielding percentage covers up so-so range), but he's another 20-homer threat who will bolster a very good lineup.

What's most encouraging here is chemistry. The Boston clubhouse used to remind one of a visit to a Massachusetts penitentiary. But last year's Sox were a surprisingly gregarious group, and the affable Millar will only improve things.

Do you think San Francisco's new emphasis on baserunning, speed and good contact hitting will outweigh the fact that the Giants really have only one potent home-run bat in the lineup?
--Steve Robertson, Melbourne, Australia

Like Michael Jackson's nose, things are looking up in San Fran. As hard as this is to do, Giants GM Brian Sabean has improved last year's NL champs. Ray Durham is a huge boost over the washed-up Kenny Lofton in the leadoff spot, Edgardo Alfonzo is vastly underrated, Jose Cruz Jr. has 30-home run pop and Neifi Perez -- stolen from the sad-sack Royals -- is a perfect utility infielder. Yeah, it's rough losing Jeff Kent's power. But the standoffish second baseman was a Bonds -esque annoyance in the clubhouse. Durham and Alfonzo, meanwhile, are hard-nosed, quiet types who will blend in perfectly. The Giants are my pick to win the World Series.

With Tom Glavine, Kevin Millwood, Mike Remlinger and Chris Hammond gone, do you think the Braves have the pitching to get to October? Atlanta's offense has had a small upgrade, and with guys like Javy and Raffy bound to have rebound years, do you think the outlook is still bright?
--Curtis Vandeford, Atlanta

Curtis, much of this depends on Mike Hampton , who joins the Braves after two heinous seasons with the Rockies. I tend to believe that aliens prefer the thin air of the Rocky Mountains, and that Hampton's pitching abilities were sucked from his body by a UFO and then injected into Elmer Dessens . Will Hampton return to normal with Atlanta? The early word is "yes" -- and quickly.

Look, Braves GM John Schuerholz deserves tons of credit. He brought in Hampton, ex-Royal Paul Byrd (17-11, 3.90 ERA) and ex-Giant Russ Ortiz (14-10, 3.61 ERA) -- three winners. It remains the best staff in the NL.

As for "Javy" and "Raffy", [Writer's note: Curtis, you are not friends with either of them. I doubt you've ever met them. And if you called me "Jeffie," I'd slug you in the schnozz. So stop.] I'm not sure if the rebound years you're anticipating are coming anytime soon. "Javy" turns 33 this year, and if you can find me a catcher not named Carlton Fisk who still produced at that age, please ring the bell. And "Raffy" -- while nicely skilled -- has always been a little more hype than reality. At age 19, he was a phenom. At 24, he's just another fast infielder. Wilson Betemit will be better.

The Cardinals' lineup is one of the best in baseball -- solid and very balanced -- and it will be even better when J.D. Drew comes back in June. My question is about the pitching. Do you think the Cards have enough to get to the World Series?
--Daniel McCrosky, Memphis, Tenn.

Matt Morris is one of the best young pitchers I have ever seen, and he's getting better. Woody Williams is a solid veteran. Chris Carpenter would find a way to hurt himself in a room made of Jell-O. Brett Tomko is the modern-day Brad Arnsberg (Potential=10, Results=2) and Jason Simontacchi is a feel-good story on a collision course with reality.

Sad. Were Darryl Kile still alive, we'd be referring to St. Louis as a strong favorite in the NL. Without him, the Cards are just very good.

A few questions about the Mets: Does Jay Bell have anything left in the tank? How do you think Roger Cedeno's defense will be affected by his rumored move to center? Does David Cone have any chance of nailing down the fifth starter's role -- or is he doomed to long relief/retirement? Is Mike Piazza's decline in production in recent years a fluke -- or is his age catching up with him? And last, but not least, how does Steve Phillips still have a job?
-- Jesse, Margaretville, New York

Jesse, like a true New Yawker, you smell funny and talk too much. That said ...