Cincinnati Reds

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2002 Finish: 78-84, 3rd, NL Central, 19 GB	2002 Payroll: $44,561,074 (24th)

Projected Lineup SS Barry Larkin 2B Aaron Boone CF Ken Griffey Jr. RF Austin Kearns LF Adam Dunn 1B Sean Casey 3B Brandon Larson C Jason LaRue Projected Rotation RHP Paul Wilson RHP Jimmy Haynes RHP Ryan Dempster RHP Danny Graves RHP Seth Etherton CL Scott Williamson

By David Clark, SI.com

Is the Reds' glass half-empty or half-full?

With plenty of pop and speed, Cincinnati finished fourth in the NL in home runs with 169 and third in stolen bases with 116 in 2002 (thanks in large part to 32 by Aaron Boone, who suddenly decided to start running after just six swipes each of the two previous seasons).

The Reds have one of the greatest outfielders in history in Ken Griffey Jr. He's only 33 and early reports indicate he's trained harder this offseason than ever before. He's surrounded by three very promising sluggers in Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Brandon Larson, in addition to Sean Casey (who didn't continue his streak of .300+ seasons only because he was hurt last season) and Boone, who showed what he's capable of when he plays an entire season with 38 doubles, 26 homers and 87 RBIs in 2002 (including .324 in July and eight home runs in the first 11 games of August).

There's plenty of fan enthusiasm for the NL's youngest team (the 40-man roster's average age was 26.68 years). Standing-room-only tickets for Opening Day at the new Great American Ball Park are going for $100 each on eBay.

The Reds also had one of the league's toughest bullpens last season, even with Scott Sullivan and Gabe White banged up. Chris Reitsma was 4-10 as a starter, but he was 2-2 with a 1.29 ERA in 11 relief appearances. Scott Williamson has the potential to be an even more dominant closer than Danny Graves.

On the other hand, the starting rotation is laughable. Start at the top. The Cardinals have Morris, the Astros have Oswalt and Miller, the Cubs have Wood and the Reds have ... Jimmy Haynes. And Haynes is only the ace because of a career-best 15-10 campaign. Ryan Dempster has control issues. Many are high on Paul Wilson -- who has a history of elbow and shoulder problems and had twice as many losses (12) as wins (six) last season. Graves' arm might not last an entire season of starting. And at No. 5 -- a mystery. Maybe Reitsma or Seth Etherton, both of whom impressed in recent spring starts.

The offseason effort to improve was questionable, with Wilson and infielder Felipe Lopez as the most significant acquisitions. And letting Joey Hamilton, Shawn Estes and Brian Moehler go -- all to NL Central rivals -- could come back to haunt them. Reliable but unspectacular Elmer Dessens, good for five or six strong innings in just about every start, may be missed.

Perhaps a chemistry turnaround is what the doctor ordered. A year ago, former Reds in other teams' camps alleged Griffey and Barry Larkin were receiving preferential treatment, and it was tearing the clubhouse apart. This year, the two former Moeller High School stars joined Danny Graves and Adam Dunn in Orlando to get an early jump on conditioning. But after GM Jim Bowden's comment about how the Griffey-for-Mike Cameron trade had "flopped," Griffey's mindset entering the season is anyone's guess.

Tom Robson replaces Jim Lefebvre as the hitting coach. He offers a straightforward, no-nonsense approach and inherits a team that was awful with runners in scoring position in ‘02. Robson will have young hitters, most of whom lack discipline. One number to work on: The Reds struck out 1,188 times last season, second most in the NL.

Larkin's health is a concern because he turns 39 in April. But Larkin actually played 145 games last season after appearing in a total of 149 the previous two years. If Larkin is MIA, the Reds would be without a leadoff hitter, and their shortstop could be Lopez, who struck out a ton in winter ball.

Danny Graves, who went from closer to the rotation last September and made just four 2002 starts. Reds fans would love to see him do what Derek Lowe did for Boston. So far, he's still trying to get used to pitching out of a windup. He has gone more than 100 innings in a season only once in his career. STATS Inc. indicates no pitcher has ever made 20 or more starts the year after saving 30 or more games. The test for Graves will come in the second half of the season.

Manager Bob Boone moved his son to second base to make room for third baseman Brandon Larson, so what does that say? Larson hit .340 with 25 homers and 69 RBIs in 80 games at Class AAA last season, including an outstanding surge following corrective eye surgery. He also impressed in his late-season callup, batting .275 with four homers and 13 RBIs in 51 at-bats. The Reds' skipper has said he's curious to see if Aaron can handle the move to second and whether Larson can pick up where Boone left off.

Arrivals: RHP Paul Wilson (free agent); INF Felipe Lopez (came from Toronto in multiteam trade); LHP Jimmy Anderson (signed to minor league contract); RHP Pete Harnisch (signed to minor league contract); LHP Kent Mercker (signed to minor league contract); LHP Felix Heredia (signed to minor league contract); LHP Travis Miller (signed to minor league contract); RHP Josh Thigpen (in trade with Boston); RHP Luke Prokopec, RHP Blake Williams, RHP Jerome Gamble (Rule V draft); RHP Jeff Austin, LHP Brian Shackelford (in trade with Kansas City).

Departures: 2B Todd Walker (traded to Boston); RHP Elmer Dessens (went to Arizona in multi-team trade); RHP Joey Hamilton (free agent, signed with St. Louis); LHP Shawn Estes (free agent, signed with Cubs); RHP Brian Moehler (free agent, signed with Houston); RHP Jose Silva (released); RHP Jared Fernandez (released); INF Damaso Espino, OF Alan Moye (in trade with Kansas City)

With a $60 million payroll, the Reds are in serious trouble if they suffer as many injuries as last season. Dunn, Griffey and Kearns fill the outfield, but on paper the Reds have four mediocre (at best) starters and a question mark at closer. They could challenge for the NL wild card, maybe even the Central. But they could just as easily finish fourth.