Kansas City Royals

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2002 Finish: 62-100, 4th, AL Central, 32 1/2 GB	2002 Payroll: $52,217,132 (20th)

Projected Lineup 2B Carlos Febles 3B Joe Randa CF Carlos Beltran 1B Mike Sweeney LF Raul Ibanez RF Mark Quinn DH Ken Harvey C Brent Mayne SS Angel Berroa Projected Rotation RHP Runelvys Hernandez LHP Jeremy Affeldt LHP Darrell May RHP James Baldwin LHP Chris George CL Mike MacDougal

By Dan George, SI.com

How bad are things in Kansas City these days? Even Hall of Famer George Brett, who personified this once-proud franchise during 21 seasons with the Royals, says he probably wouldn't stick around with the current team.

"It's all changed. I would sign one-year contracts," Brett, the team's vice president of baseball operations, recently told The Kansas City Star. "And I would ask myself, 'Do we have a chance to win in the next two or three years?' Right now, looking at the Royals, I would have to say 'No.'"

When the Royals dropped their final three games of 2002 to finish 62-100, it marked the first time in their 34-year history that they suffered 100 losses in a season. That, sadly, is the good news. Kansas City baseball fans have endured nine consecutive losing seasons and 12 in the 17 years since the Royals' 1985 World Series title.

The outlook this spring isn't much better. Winning teams like the Minnesota Twins and Oakland A's -- both of whom had lower payrolls than the Royals last season -– have proved that strong farm systems and astute personnel moves can overcome small-market budgets.

Unfortunately, Royals general manager Allard Baird is no Terry Ryan or Billy Beane. As such stars as Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye have left via trade or free agency, they've been replaced by the questionable likes of Roberto Hernandez, Neifi Perez and Chuck Knoblauch.

The lamentable trend continued this winter as the Royals failed to re-sign right-handed starter Paul Byrd after he became the first major league pitcher in more than 50 years to win at least 17 games for a 100-loss team.

Baird did ink Mike Sweeney to a five-year, $55 million deal last spring. The 29-year-old slugger has an escape clause if the Royals don't play .500 ball in either of the next two seasons, but he insists he'd like to be like Brett and spend the rest of his career in K.C.

That sounds great –- until you realize even George Brett would no longer want to be like George Brett.

After boosting their payroll to a record $47.3 million in 2002, the Royals suffered the worst season in their history -– their 1.3 million attendance ranked 13th in the AL -- and lost about $20 million along the way. So owner David Glass ordered Baird to cut this season's payroll to $37 million. After winning their arbitration hearing with center fielder Carlos Beltran ($6 million), they've committed almost $36 million to 11 players.

That means somebody has to go, and it'll probably be Beltran. If you listen to the rumor mill, he might already be gone if the Texas Rangers were willing to give up Hank Blalock, Laynce Nix and Michael Young. Kansas City would also love to move Joe Randa.

On the field, manager Tony Pena's biggest job will be piecing together a rotation after the free-agent exits of Byrd and Jeff Suppan, who combined for 436 1/3 innings last season. Four of the most likely candidates -- right-handers Runelvys Hernandez and Miguel Asencio and lefties Jeremy Affeldt and Chris George -- range from 22 to 24 years old and have a combined career record of 15-30. Which explains the presence in camp of James Baldwin and Albie Lopez. They may be journeymen, but they're experienced journeymen.

In addition to the callow starting rotation, the Royals' bullpen also is unsettled. After a strong winter showing in the Puerto Rican League, rookie Mike MacDougal is the favorite to replace 2001 closer Roberto Hernandez, but he's no lock. There are also questions at second (will Carlos Febles ever bounce back to his 1999 form?) and right field (Mark Quinn or Dee Brown?).

Coming off 2001 season in which he hit .304 with 14 home runs, 67 RBIs and 25 stolen bases, shortstop Angel Berroa was the shining light of the Royals' farm system. Then it was discovered that he was 24, not 22, and he slumped to .215-8-35-6 last season. Now Berroa, the only thing the Royals have left from the 2001 Damon trade, gets a full-fledged shot to be the starting shortstop. In his favor: It won't be hard to surpass the departed Neifi Perez's .236-3-37-8 of a year ago.

After averaging .359 over three minor league seasons, Ken Harvey began showing a little power last summer at Class AAA Omaha, hitting 20 homers and driving in 75 runs (although his average dipped to .277). But in the Arizona Fall League, the 24-year-old right-handed hitter simply exploded, batting a league-record .479 with seven homers and 34 RBIs to win MVP honors. He'll get every chance to be the Royals' DH this season.

Arrivals: RHP Albie Lopez (free agent), INF Desi Relaford (free agent), C Mike DiFelice (minor league contract), RHP James Baldwin (minor league contract), RHP Sean Lowe (free agent).

Departures: SS Neifi Perez (signed with Giants as free agent), RHP Paul Byrd (signed with Braves as free agent), C A.J. Hinch (signed with Indians as free agent); 2B Luis Alicea (unsigned); OF Chuck Knoblauch (unsigned); RHP Roberto Hernandez (signed with Braves as free agent); RHP Blake Stein (signed with Devil Rays as free agent); RHP Jeff Suppan (signed with Pirates as free agent).

It took the Royals 34 years to lose 100 games in a season. It may take just one more to do it again. Not that there isn't talent. Beltran led the team in home runs (29), RBIs (105) and stolen bases (35) last season, while All-Star first baseman Sweeney hit .340, just missing the AL batting title. And first baseman-outfielder Raul Ibanez showed his strong 2001 finish was no fluke, batting .294 with 24 homers and 103 RBIs. If they can repeat those performances and everything else -- that's everything else -- goes right, the Royals could battle for second place in the very weak AL Central. If it does not, they will once again be dueling with the Detroit Tigers for the cellar.