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1998 Playoffs

History favors Braves, Yankees

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Posted: Tuesday October 06, 1998 07:19 PM

 

Now that the schedule is set for the American and National League Championship Series, what can we expect? Will good pitching stop good hitting or vice-versa? What role will speed and defense play? And who are the better teams in these key areas?

First, let's look at the history of the league championship series, which dates back to 1969. What area of the game gives the biggest edge to one team or another?

We have taken the 56 league championship series played since 1969 and compared the two contending teams in five key areas, based on regular season statistics. The five categories compared are team batting average, home runs, earned run average, stolen bases and fielding percentage.

How do these five factors figure in the outcome of a LCS?

  • Speed -- No apparent advantage or disadvantage. In the 56 LCS matchups, teams with the most stolen bases have won 28 and lost 28.

  • Defense -- Slight advantage to the better defensive team. Teams with the higher regular-season fielding percentage have gone 30-26 in LCS play.

  • Batting average -- Strong advantage to the better hitting team. The team with the higher regular season batting average has won 33 times and lost 23 times in the LCS.

  • Power -- Strong advantage to the team with the most regular season home runs. Teams who have out-homered their LCS opponent during the regular season have gone 34-22 in their postseason matchups.

  • Pitching -- Strong advantage to the team with the better pitching staff. LCS teams with the lower regular-season staff ERA have gone 34-22 in the championship series.

    The combination factor

    The Braves are hoping that the arms of their pitchers are stronger than the bats of their opponents AP 

    If you've been better than your LCS opponent in three or more of the above five categories, your winning percentage improves to 41-15(.732).

    Season/Postseason success comparison
    League leader LCS titles
    ERA
    Home runs
    Stolen bases
    Batting average
    Fielding percentage
    		 19
    13
    10
    9
    9

    And if you led your league in any of these five categories, the outcome again points to pitching and power as the two keys to winning.

    League leaders in two or more of these five categories have been almost unbeatable in the LCS, going 19-6 (.760).

    1998 comparison

    So how do the 1998 LCS teams compare? First, in the American League, the Yankees win all five categories and led the American League in one of them (ERA).

    ALCS
      Cleveland New York
    Batting average
    Home runs
    Stolen bases
    ERA
    Fielding percentage
    		 .272
    198
    143
    4.44
    .982
    		 .288
    207
    153
    3.82
    .984

    In the National League, the Braves rank higher in all five categories and led the league in two of them (ERA and fielding percentage).

    NLCS
      San Diego Atlanta
    Batting average
    Home runs
    Stolen bases
    ERA
    Fielding percentage
    		 .253
    167
    79
    3.63
    .983
    		 .272
    215
    98
    3.25
    .985

    The outcome

    If the 1998 league championship series follow historical trends, it'll be the Braves and the Yankees advancing to the World Series.

    But, before you make your World Series plans, consider this. Only twice in the previous 56 LCS has one team had the regular-season edge over their opponent in all five of these categories, as both the Braves and Yankees do this year.

    The 1995 Cleveland Indians were better in all five than the Seattle Mariners and followed form in the LCS by defeating Seattle 4-2.

    But in 1988, The New York Mets had the edge over the Los Angeles Dodgers in all five areas. The Dodgers not only upset the Mets 4-3 in the NLCS -- but went on to an improbable 4-1 World Series win over the heavily favored Oakland A's.

    Upsets are always a possibility, but the numbers lean heavily toward a rematch of the 1996 World Series. Start spreading the news.

     

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