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Stephen Cannella's Breakdown
Mariners		Yankees
They're not quite the Cardinals of the 1980s, but the M's definitely play smaller ball than most AL teams. They all bunt -- even shortstop Alex Rodriguez and first baseman John Olerud were called on to sacrifice in the Division Series -- and Rickey Henderson, Mike Cameron and Mark McLemore are base-stealing threats. The game plan for Seattle, one of the league's most patient teams: Drive up the Yankees starters' pitch counts, scratch out an early lead, then hope the likes of A-Rod, Edgar and Buhner can do damage against New York's shabby middle relief.	OFFENSE The Edge:	The Yanks' sputtering lineup didn't exactly break out against the A's -- take away their first-inning, six-run outburst in Game 5 and they only scored 13 runs in the series. They didn't hit a homer until David Justice went deep in the final game of the series. There was some good news: Tino Martinez hit .421 against Oakland, and Chuck Knoblauch seemed to come back to life. The Yankees desperately need Chuckie to get on base from the leadoff spot.
Seattle's D is a weapon; it snuffed out several White Sox rallies in the Division Series. Third baseman David Bell is the weakest link in the infield, and even he is solid, if unspectacular. Olerud, a vacuum at first, makes the rest of the infield better, and Cameron, the center fielder, has excellent range. One trouble spot: The Yankees should be able to run, especially when Joe Oliver is behind the plate.	DEFENSE The Edge:   None	Luis Sojo starts instead of Knoblauch at second. He's sure-handed, but his range won't make anyone forget Roberto Alomar. Bothered by injuries, Paul O'Neill is a statue in right field, so the Mariners can be aggressive on the bases when he has to chase a ball into the corner or the gap. Catcher Jorge Posada has an excellent arm and will be a threat to Seattle's running game. The Yankees also get points for postseason poise: This defense won't come unglued in pressure situations.
Jamie Moyer, the scheduled Game 4 starter, suffered a fractured kneecap over the weekend and is gone for the season -- a huge loss. Paul Abbott, winner of Game 2 of the Division Series, fills that hole. Right-hander Aaron Sele pitched well in the Division Series, but over the last two postseasons he's 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA against the Yankees. Freddy Garcia, another righty, can be dominating, but he's 23 and couldn't survive the fourth inning against the White Sox. Asking him to start Game 1 in Yankee Stadium is asking a lot. Seattle's best hope: Coax six strong innings out of the starters, then hand a lead to a deep, hard-throwing bullpen.	STARTING PITCHER The Edge:	Game 1 starter Denny Neagle had a horrible September and didn't pitch against the A's, but he hasn't lost in four career postseason starts. Torre can expect strong outings from right-hander Orlando Hernandez and lefty Andy Pettitte in Games 2 and 3, respectively, but Game 4 starter Roger Clemens is an October crapshoot. It's no accident Torre arranged his rotation so Pettitte, not the Rocket, would pitch if a seventh game, if necessary. Torre doesn't trust his long-relief options, so it's crucial that the starters go deep into every game.
A strength. Seattle's bullpen blanked the White Sox, tossing 11 2/3 scoreless innings. Closer Kazuhiro Sasaki has been close to unhittable since July. Setup men Arthur Rhodes, Jose Mesa and Jose Paniagua all throw hard and get big strikeouts with runners on. Rhodes, a southpaw, will be key against the Yankees' lefty-heavy lineup. Brett Tomko will be a factor if a starter makes an early exit: He shut down the White Sox for 2 2/3 innings when Garcia left Game 1 in the fourth inning, setting the tone for the pen's dominating series.	BULLPEN The Edge:   None	Short relief isn't a problem. Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton were erratic during the season, but were effective against the A's. Closer Mariano Rivera hasn't allowed a postseason run since 1997. If Torre has the lead in the seventh inning, those three are just about automatic. If a starter falters and Torre has to dip into his relief pool early, look out -- he has little faith in anyone else in the pen.
Stan Javier, Al Martin and Raul Ibanez are veterans and decent hitters, but no one is a serious power threat off the bench. Carlos Guillen is a rookie, but he won Game 3 against Chicago with a bunt base hit in the bottom of the ninth. Whichever catcher isn't starting -- Dan Wilson or Oliver -- provides a veteran, if weak-hitting, defensive replacement, so Lou Piniella won't be afraid to pinch-hit either one.	BENCH The Edge:	The New York bench is stocked with veterans, but Torre seemed reluctant to use any of them against the A's. Jose Canseco and Glenallen Hill have enough power and force to make opposing managers think twice about bringing in a left-handed reliever. Jose Vizcaino is versatile, and Luis Polonia can add speed as a pinch-runner.
Meet the New Lou: Piniella isn't the emotional volcano he once was, and he pushed all the right buttons against the White Sox. His players trust him -- he won the World Series in 1990 with the Reds -- and have responded to the looser, low-pressure atmosphere he's created in the clubhouse.	MANAGER The Edge:	Torre was second-guessed for his decision to start Clemens in Game 4, but his ability to guide his team through a very difficult series against the A's and his handling of potential malcontent Knoblauch only added to Torre's postseason aura. Until someone beats the Bombers, he's the best October manager in the game.
The Mariners were one of baseball's best road teams this season, and they destroyed the White Sox by winning Games 1 and 2 in Chicago. Other than Seattle, no team is as well-equipped as to play at spacious Safeco Field as the Yanks, so it's crucial that the M's steal at least one of the first two games at Yankee Stadium. For the Mariners to have a chance of going to their first World Series, they must be road warriors in the most difficult of arenas.	'X' FACTOR The Edge:	The Division Series was a draining one for New York, and the young A's showed that the Yankees no longer frighten teams into submission when they step out of the dugout. Does an aging team with a spotty offense and basically a seven-man staff have enough to survive another grinding bicoastal series? Sorry, Seattle fans, the answer is yes.
Cannella's Prediction: Yankees in 6.

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