|
Stephen Cannella's Breakdown |
|---|
| Indians
|
| Mariners
|
|
To whom do you pitch in this lineup? Roberto Alomar, Juan Gonzalez,
Jim Thome and Ellis Burks are simply scary in the 3-4-5-6 spots. Leadoff hitter
Kenny Lofton finally got hot over the season's final two months -- the Indians'
offense is much more potent when he gets on base and distracts pitchers from the
basepaths. Travis Fryman often gets overlooked, but he started to swing well
late in the season after recovering from an elbow injury. If he's on, the bottom
of Cleveland's order is no safer for pitchers than the top. Also, thanks to a
monstrous comeback win in August, the Indians aren't cowed by the stellar
Seattle
bullpen.
|
OFFENSE The Edge:
 |
The Mariners won't slug anyone to death, but they were the
league's highest-scoring team thanks to their patience, high on-base percentage
and ability to steal and move runners along. Ichiro Suzuki makes the offense go
-- if the Indians can keep him off base, Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez get fewer
RBI chances. This is a smart, veteran lineup that knows how to hit in key spots;
only the Indians had a higher average with runners in scoring position. Hidden
weapon: Mark McLemore, an ideal No. 2 hitter who can move runners into scoring
position and steal bases (he had 39) when he gets
on.
|
|
|
The Indians weren't quite as airtight this season, but they're
still very solid defensively. Alomar and Omar Vizquel are artists at second and
short. Gonzalez is underrated in right field -- his strong and accurate arm
could be a factor if the Mariners are aggressive on the bases. Catcher Einar
Diaz threw out 35.4% of runners trying to steal, best in the
league.
|
DEFENSE The Edge:
 |
If you want to get on base against Seattle you have to earn it. No
AL team made fewer errors. Shortstop Carlos Guillen is out with tuberculosis,
but Seattle won't lose anything with McLemore filling in. Center fielder Mike
Cameron is acrobatic and has outstanding range, and Ichiro's laser-like arm
discourages runners from chasing extra
bases.
|
|
|
The Indians have been waiting -- now is the time for Bartolo Colon,
who has a 6.14 ERA in three career Division Series starts, to prove he's an
elite-level ace. Left-hander C.C. Sabathia didn't pitch like a rookie all
season, but counting on a first-year pitcher in the postseason is risky. Chuck
Finley pitched well late in the season, but he's not the dominating starter he
once was. If all three starters live up to their potential, the Indians could
well sweep the series. The rotation will be Cleveland's saving grace -- or its
downfall.
|
STARTING PITCHING The Edge:
|
Seattle's rotation doesn't get the same pub as the Yankees or A's
groups, but it's hard to find fault with a set that features four 15-game
winners. Game 1 starter Freddy Garcia might be the best young power pitcher in
the majors. Jamie Moyer (Game 2) and Aaron Sele (Game 3) are solid veterans who
won't be rattled in a big game. Plus, Seattle's top three have wildly varying
styles -- Cleveland hitters will have to adjust their timing in each game. The
key might be Moyer, who was 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA against Cleveland this year. Lou
Piniella said the Mariners would have gone to the World Series last year if
Moyer hadn't missed the ALCS with an
injury. |
|
|
Which John Rocker will show up for this series, the one who can
blow hitters away with ease or the one who's prone to emotional meltdowns and
wildness? If Rocker is on, the pen is deep and versatile. Closer Bob Wickman is
solid, and setup man Paul Shuey has electric stuff. Left-hander Ricardo Rincon,
who hasn't allowed a run in over a month, is key. Don't be surprised to see him
pitching to John Olerud with the game on the line
late.
|
BULLPEN The Edge:
|
It doesn't get better than this. Jeff Nelson and Arthur Rhodes are
an imposing righty-lefty setup combination -- they were first and third among
relievers in opponents batting average. They're versatile, too. Both are
effective against right-handed and left-handed hitters. Closer Kazuhiro Sasaki
is close to automatic. The pen is deep, and Piniella is a master at manipulating
it.
|
|
|
The Indians are well-stocked. Wil Cordero, Russell Branyan and
Karim Garcia are all late-inning power threats. Jolbert Cabrera has power and
speed, and is an excellent defensive replacement in the outfield. He can even
play the infield if he has to -- his versatility will be huge in a short
series.
|
BENCH The Edge:
|
Al Martin and Stan Javier are veteran hitters, but there's not
much power there. Jay Buhner could give the M's a big boost -- he provides power
and is the emotional heart and soul of the team. Charles Gipson is Piniella's
pinch-running option, and he's a solid outfield replacement. The M's won't lose
anything if he's out there in the late innings.
|
|
| Charlie Manuel is beloved by his players. He runs a loose ship, and
the team is relaxed and confident as a result. But as a tactician, he's probably
outmatched by
Piniella. |
MANAGER The Edge:
|
Did any manager do a better job this season than Piniella? He's
much more even-keeled than he used to be, and that calm presence rubs off on his
players. He handles the bullpen expertly, and he'll be aggressive when it comes
to creating runs without homers.
|
|
|
Rocker. Will Manuel be brave enough to use the volatile left-hander
in a tight spot? The Indians desperately need him to pitch well. A Rocker
meltdown that leads to a Seattle win early in the series would be devastating.
|
'X' FACTOR The Edge:
|
Pressure. The Mariners tied the major league record for wins in a
season, but that mark means nothing if they don't bring home a world
championship. Can they stay loose trying to live up to their regular-season
standard?
Yes.
|
| Cannella's prediction: Mariners in
4 |
|---|
| |
