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Stephen Cannella's Breakdown |
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| Yankees
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| A's
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At times this year the Yankees lacked the plate patience that
has been a trademark of their world championship run, but the lineup is still
potent when all pieces are clicking. Their veteran hitters know how to beat good
pitchers. The key is leadoff man Chuck Knoblauch (.250 average, .339 on-base
percentage). New York desperately needs him to break out of his season-long
malaise. Look for the Yanks to create runs on the basepaths: They're extremely
smart, Joe Torre will hit and run with almost anyone at the plate, and only the
Mariners attempted more steals this season.
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OFFENSE The Edge:
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The Oakland formula: Be patient, take walks, clog the bases and wait
for someone to hit a three-run bomb. It worked this year -- no AL team walked
more and only four teams scored more runs. The addition of Jermaine Dye in July
was an adrenaline shot for the lineup, and he produced against the Yankees this
season (10 RBIs in nine games). If Dye is hitting, the Yankees can't pitch
around Jason Giambi. The sleeper in the lineup is Eric Chavez, who was on a tear
(21 homers, .340 average) the entire second
half.
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The Yankees are sound, and they obviously won't tighten up under
postseason pressure. Catcher Jorge Posada shuts down most teams' running games,
but that won't matter here -- Oakland rarely attempts to steal. New York's key
might be second baseman Alfonso Soriano, who is solid overall but, like most
rookies, has occasional mental lapses.
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DEFENSE The Edge:
 |
A trouble spot -- only the Tigers and Devil Rays made more errors in
the AL this year. With the offenses and starting staffs evenly matched, defense
could be the deciding factor in the series. The Yankees are very opportunistic;
the A's can't afford to prolong innings with fielding mistakes.
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How deep is this rotation? Orlando Hernandez -- perhaps the best
postseason pitcher of this generation -- may not take the mound because of arm
discomfort, and the Yankees will still trot out three aces. Roger
Clemens, Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte are as good as it gets. Plus, their
varying looks and pitching styles will keep Oakland hitters off balance in the
short series. If El Duque can't go, Sterling Hitchcock will start Game 4, a
matchup the A's would be happy
with.
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STARTING PITCHING The Edge:
NONE
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The only thing separating Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito
from the Yankees' Big Three is experience. The trio of wunderkinds pitch with
maturity beyond their years; however, they were a combined 1-3 in six starts
against New York this season. Likely Game 4 starter Cory Lidle was stellar in
the second half. He could be called upon to win the most important game of the
series. |
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Mariano Rivera showed some cracks in his armor this season, but
there's still no closer you'd rather have to nail down a postseason win. Lefty
setup man Mike Stanton is one of the best in the league, and he's as effective
against right-handers as he is against lefties. Other than those two, the
pickings are slim for Joe Torre, especially since Ramiro Mendoza's health is a
question mark. Torre will be praying that his starters get him through the
seventh inning at least.
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BULLPEN The Edge:
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Closer Jason Isringhausen can be erratic, but overall the pen is
deep and solid. Oakland had the AL's second-best relief ERA, and Jeff Tam, Jim
Mecir and Mark Guthrie are all reliable mid- to late-inning options.
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The Yankees live and die by their starters, but David Justice
and Shane Spencer are two big power bats off the bench. Randy Velarde could be
this year's Luis Sojo -- he can play anywhere in the infield and is capable of
getting key hits.
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BENCH The Edge:
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The addition of Ron Gant gave the bench a little more punch. Olmedo
Saenz and Jeremy Giambi both have power, but neither has had much success as a
pinch hitter. If the A's need their backups to win the series for them, they're
in
trouble.
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| What's left to say about Joe Torre? He's the best postseason
manager of his generation. Until someone knocks off his team, I wouldn't bet
against
him. |
MANAGER The Edge:
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Art Howe's loose style fits his team perfectly, and he did a
masterful job of holding the A's together after their terrible start. He'll have
his club relaxed and
unintimidated.
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Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez, two stalwarts of New York's
dynasty are in the last days of their Yankee careers. O'Neill, about to retire,
has looked old and creaky at times, but he also stole a career-high 22 bases
this year. Martinez, a free agent who isn't likely to be re-signed, awoke
halfway through the season and led the team in homers and RBIs. The Yankee
lineup is scary when it's hitting, ordinary when it's not. If both O'Neill and
Martinez get hot New York will be hard to
beat.
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'X' FACTOR The Edge:
NONE
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Jason Isringhausen. With the teams' starters evenly matched, don't
be surprised if every game comes down to the bitter end. Izzy blew nine saves
this season, but has allowed only one run since August 22. He was also effective
in his four appearances against the Yankees. He could make or break the series
for the A's.
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| Cannella's Prediction: Yankees in
5 |
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