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Stephen Cannella's Breakdown |
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| Braves
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| Diamondbacks
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Chipper Jones and Brian Jordan killed Arizona pitching this year --
not that any team needs an excuse to pitch around that duo. There's little else
in the Braves' lineup to frighten opposing pitchers, though Julio Franco can
still handle the bat and Andruw Jones (.500) did get hot against the Astros. But
overall the Braves have to scratch out base hits and hope one of their big guns
drives the runners
home.
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OFFENSE The Edge:
 |
It wasn't slugging that got the D'Backs this far. They
struggled big-time in the Division Series, going just 7 for 35 with runners in
scoring position; Bob Brenly used four different players in the cleanup spot to
try to get things going. If Luis Gonzalez and Matt Williams stay cold,
there's not much power here, and the NL's oldest lineup doesn't have enough
speed to manufacture runs. Bright spots: Steve Finley, who finally got hot in
the second half and was Arizona's leading hitter against the Cardinals, and
Craig Counsell, an excellent pressure
hitter.
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If the ball is hit up the middle, the Braves have no problems.
Andruw Jones is as good as it gets in center. Rey Sanchez is the best defensive
shortstop in the league. But Chipper Jones is shaky at times at third while
first baseman Franco is in the lineup for his bat, not his glove. Keep an eye on
the pitchers, especially Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine: Their ability to field
their position helps eliminate bunts and squib
hits.
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DEFENSE The Edge:
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A strength. Finley (center field) and Mark Grace (first base)
are elite defenders, and Matt Williams made up for his offensive slump with
excellent defense in the NLDS. This team made the fewest errors in the majors
this year. In the field, at least, the D'Backs don't beat themselves.
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The rotation isn't quite the imposing beast it once was, but it's
still strong. Obviously, no one wants to face Maddux or Glavine (especially
Glavine) in a big game. Arizona did hammer Maddux for 13 runs in two starts this
season. Jason Marquis is an above-average starter, and the ageless John Burkett
can twist an aggressive team like Arizona into knots with his soft-serve
repertoire.
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STARTING PITCHING The Edge:
 |
Depends what day it is. The rotation is a two-headed monster:
If Curt Schilling or Randy Johnson is starting, Arizona can be unbeatable. Game
2 starter Miguel Batista is the sleeper of the staff -- don't be surprised if he
dazzles the Braves. Fourth starter Albie Lopez can't be relied on in a big game,
but he did pitch well against Atlanta this season: 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two
starts. |
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For once, the pen isn't a black hole for the Braves. In John
Smoltz they have the door-slamming closer they have lacked for a decade; he was
nearly perfect against the Astros in the Division Series. Steve Karsay has
closer's stuff in a setup role. Steve Reed is also a solid setup guy and Mike
Remlinger is a very dependable left-hander who's actually more effective against
righties than
lefties.
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BULLPEN The Edge:
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If the NLCS turns into a battle of bullpens, the D'Backs are
done. Closer Byung-Hyun Kim's nasty rising slider is sometimes unhittable, but
he has also fired it to the backstop. Lefty specialist Greg Swindell is far from
overpowering; same goes for 42-year-old Mike Morgan. Left-hander Brian Anderson
pitched well in long relief against the Cardinals. He'll be key if and when a
starter not named Schilling or Johnson falters
early.
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Not much here. Keith Lockhart is a solid defensive
fill-in and hit .326 as a pinch-hitter this season, but he's not an extra-base
threat. Backup catcher Paul Bako may be forced to start again if Javy Lopez
(sprained ankle) still isn't ready to
play.
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BENCH The Edge:
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Brenly's ace in the hole. David Dellucci and Erubiel Durazo
are the two best left-handed pinch hitters in the league. Both Danny Bautista
and Midre Cummings provide speed and handle the bat well. And Brenly had enough
faith in Greg Colbrunn to start him in the cleanup spot in Game 4 against St.
Louis. Their deep bench allows the D'Backs to match up against any
bullpen.
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| Atlanta lost three-quarters of its infield, its leadoff hitter and
its starting catcher to injuries, and Bobby Cox still coaxed a division title
out of the team. He did the best managing job of his career this year. Other
than Joe Torre, there's no one I'd rather have managing my team in October. |
MANAGER The Edge:
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This veteran team has thrived under Brenly, who runs a loose
and low-pressure ship. He can be slow to go to his bullpen, especially when
Johnson or Schilling is on the mound, and isn't afraid to make unconventional
decisions (anyone see that squeeze play coming in Game 5?). But he has Arizona
playing with
confidence.
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Their attitude. For once the Braves entered the postseason as
underdogs, and against Houston they looked as relaxed as they have in any of the
last 10 Octobers. Not being saddled with high expectations might be just what
Atlanta needs to get back to the World
Series.
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'X' FACTOR The Edge: NONE |
Matt Williams. He was hitless in the NLDS and booed
mercilessly at Bank One Ballpark until the ninth inning of Game 5, when he
kick-started the series-winning rally with a double. If Williams doesn't get
hot, Arizona's offense will remain
punchless.
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| Cannella's Prediction: Braves in
7 |
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