EVENTS
 Sportsman of the Year
 Heisman Trophy
 Swimsuit 2001

CNNSI.com GROUP
 Sports Illustrated
 Life of Reilly
 SI Women
 SI for Kids
 Press Room
 TBS/TNT Sports
 CNN Languages

COMMERCE
 SI Customer Service
 SI Media Kits
 Get into College
 Sports Memorabilia
 TeamStore

Despite a bum hip, Albert Belle will try to keep the grimaces to a minimum this season. AP

By Dan George, CNNSI.com

It's kind of ironic that Peter Angelos, the owner of the Baltimore Orioles, has made a good deal of his fortune suing cigarette companies. Because the way he's been running the team, you gotta wonder: "Hey, dude, what are you smokin'?"

Under Angelos' revolving door program for AARP-eligible free agents -- and we won't even mention all the well-respected front office people he's run off over the years -- the O's have been in a free fall since winning the AL East in 1997 with 98 victories. And don't look for the parachute to open any time in 2001.

Year after year, the Orioles have eschewed playing rookies and other youngsters, opting instead for the quick -- and expensive -- fix of signing big-name veterans. And year after year, the strategy has put Baltimore on a course roughly resembling that of Pets.com's stock price.

The O's figured they'd found the missing puzzle piece last season when they hired manager Mike Hargrove, who'd led the Indians to five consecutive postseason appearances. But a disastrous first half quickly dashed those hopes, and they finished 13 1/2 games behind the first-place Yankees with a 74-89 record. Only three American League teams had worse marks.

Top Guns Orioles 2000 team leaders Avg.  Delino DeShields  .296  HR  Albert Belle  23  RBIs  Albert Belle  103  SB  Delino DeShields  37  Wins  Jose Mercedes  14  ERA  Mike Mussina  3.80  Ks  Mike Mussina  210  Saves  Ryan Kohlmeier  13    Go Figure 155 Number of games Cal Ripken has missed over the past two seasons since his consecutive games played streak ended at 2,632.

Albert Belle, usually as productive as he is moody, struggled through the worst season of his career, thanks to a degenerative hip that limited his second-half production to a .259 batting average with five home runs. That his 23 homers were still tops on the O's shows how desperate things really were.

One-time iron man Cal Ripken turned 40 in August, just about the time he ended a two-month stint on the DL because of a bad back. Right-handed pitcher Scott Erickson also missed a good part of the season with a bad elbow -- although perhaps not enough given his 7.87 ERA in 16 starts.

There were some bright spots. Delino DeShields bounced back nicely from an injury-plagued 1999 campaign, hitting a career-high .296 with 37 stolen bases. Right-hander Jose Mercedes, heretofore a journeyman, led the staff after the All-Star break with an 11-3 record and a 3.03 ERA. Rookie Ryan Kohlmeier had surprising success as the team's second-half closer. But Mike Mussina, despite a solid 3.79 ERA, was 11-15 because of anemic offensive support, his first losing record since emerging as the team's ace in 1992.

After Baltimore hit the All-Star break at 38-48, then lost five of its next eight games, Angelos and Co. at long last decided to pull the trigger, trading vets Mike Bordick, Will Clark, Charles Johnson, B.J. Surhoff and Mike Timlin for younger players. Even this didn't go especially well, since the best guys they got in return -- first baseman/outfielder Chris Richard, infielder Melvin Mora and starter Luis Rivera -- are middling prospects at best. Still, it seemed like a start.

But no. Fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly. And Angelos gotta sign free agents. Especially if they're old and expensive. Over the winter the Orioles signed first baseman David Segui, 34, to a four-year contract worth $28 million, gave 31-year-old starter Pat Hentgen a two-year deal worth $9.6 million and brought back Bordick, 35, for two years and $9.5 million. They'll join fellow geriatrics DeShields (32), Brady Anderson (37) and Jeff Conine (35).

But not Mussina. The O's best starter (147-81, 3.53 ERA in 10 seasons) since, oh, Jim Palmer, decided over the winter that he'd had enough mismanagement, bolting the nest to sign a six-year, $88.5 million deal with the ... Yankees. You have to think Angelos still wakes up screaming in the middle of the night over that.

If there's any justice, anyway.

Arrivals
Pos.	Player	From	Via
LHP	John Bale	Blue Jays	Trade
SS	Mike Bordick	Mets	Free Agency
RHP	Pat Hentgen	Cardinals	Free Agency
1B	David Segui	Indians	Free Agency
INF	Steve Sisco	Braves	Trade

Departures
Pos.	Player	To	Via
INF	Jesse Garcia	Braves	Trade
OF	Karim Garcia	Indians	Released
OF	Trenidad Hubbard	Blue Jays	Released
INF	Mark Lewis	TBA	Released
3B	Ryan Minor	Expos	Trade
RHP	Mike Mussina	Yankees	Free Agency
RHP	Pat Rapp	Angels	Free Agency
C	Jayson Werth	Blue Jays	Trade

Spring Cleaning

Jose Mercedes How will the Orioles' rotation shake out? It's wide open after Nos. 1-3, Pat Hentgen, Sidney Ponson and Jose Mercedes, and even those guys come with plenty of question marks. Despite his 15 victories last year for the Cardinals, Hentgen's 4.72 ERA figures to make him a poor replacement for Mussina. Ponson is still erratic, and how can you expect Mercedes to duplicate his 2000 finish? The candidates for Nos. 4 and 5 -- Chuck McElroy, Jay Spurgeon, John Parrish and Jason Johnson -- don't exactly make the heart beat faster. What's going to happen with Albert Belle? His condition is similar to that which derailed Bo Jackson's promising career a few years back. He's been undergoing physical therapy since October, but if he fails his physical at the beginning of spring training, his playing days could be over -- at the age of 34. Even if he does continue, it'll almost certainly be as a DH. That'll put the squeeze on Jeff Conine, who doesn't figure to see much time at first base with the acquisition of David Segui. How will reconfigured Camden Yards play? Drainage problems prompted the Orioles to realign the field, pushing home plate back and angling the field more toward left field. This will leave the fences about seven feet further from the plate, almost certainly reducing the number of homers, but that may be about the only good news for Orioles pitchers. Foul territory will be smaller, meaning fewer foul outs. And the outfield gaps will be bigger, meaning more doubles and triples. Take away the home run factor, and Camden Yards has actually been a pitcher's park over the years, but that may well change.

Team Breakdown
Projected Lineup		Projected Rotation
RF	Brady Anderson	RHP	Pat Hentgen
SS	Mike Bordick	RHP	Sidney Ponson
LF	Delino DeShields	RHP	Jose Mercedes
DH	Albert Belle	LHPs	Chuck McElroy/John Parrish
1B	David Segui	RHPs	Jason Johnson/Jay Spurgeon
3B	Cal Ripken	Bullpen
C	Brook Fordyce	RHP	Ryan Kohlmeier (closer)
CF	Melvin Mora	RHP	Mike Trombley
2B	Jerry Hairston Jr.	LHP	Buddy Groom
Key Reserves		LHP	B.J. Ryan
UT	Jeff Conine	RHP	Alan Mills
1B-OF	Chris Richard	RHP	Luis Rivera
OF	Luis Matos	LHP	John Bale

Prospects to Watch
RHP Beau Hale -- The 14th player taken in the 2000 draft, Hale was 12-6 -- including six complete games and a no-hitter -- with a 3.10 ERA last season in helping lead Texas to its first College World Series appearance since 1993. A gritty, durable competitor with a 97-mph fastball and a good slider, Hale could end up being a closer down the road. OF Keith Reed -- The good news is that Baltimore's top hitting prospect is a five-tool player who has more than exceeded the Orioles' expectations since being taken in the first round of the 1999 draft. The bad news is that the 22-year-old right-handed hitter is still probably two years away from the majors. Last season the 6-4, 215-pound Reed, a former Big East Player of the Year at Providence, hit 19 home runs with 90 RBIs and 29 stolen bases at two Class A levels. Great arm, too. Struck out 114 times against 46 walks, but the O's think his plate discipline will improve with experience. RHP Luis Rivera -- Any talk about Rivera, acquired from the Braves last summer in return for outfielder B.J. Surhoff, must include the phrase "if healthy." The right-hander mixes a good breaking ball with a 98-mph heater and was perhaps Atlanta's top pitching prospect after striking out 199 batters in 159 1/3 innings in 1998-99, but he's been dogged by injuries the past three seasons, including a strained shoulder last season. He could get a shot at the Baltimore rotation in 2001 - if healthy. SS Ed Rogers -- Just 19, this product of the Dominican Republic hit .274 with five homers and 27 stolen bases in 80 games at Class A Delmarva, despite sitting out the opening month of the season with a sprained thumb. He's a steady glove man with good range and a strong arm, and the Orioles believe he'll be a dangerous offensive player once his 6-1, 150-pound frame fills out. LHP Richard Stahl -- When you're 6-7, 185 pounds, throw left-handed and boast a 97-mph fastball, you automatically draw comparisons to Randy Johnson. Such talk may be premature, but the O's think this 1999 first-rounder has plenty of upside. Despite walking 51 batters in 89 innings and posting a so-so 5-6 record in Class A last season, the 19-year-old Stahl showed flashes of brilliance, fanning 23 and allowing just four hits during one streak of 17 consecutive scoreless innings.
Best-Case Scenario
Building on last year's hot finish -- eight wins in their last 10 games -- the Orioles get off to a fast start. Youngsters Jerry Hairston Jr., Melvin Mora and Chris Richard blossom, while Albert Belle and Cal Ripken Jr. vie for Comeback Player of the Year honors. Pat Hentgen returns to Cy Young form, while the only problem Jose Mercedes and Ryan Kohlmeier have is deciding whose day it is to use the smoke and mirrors. The Orioles grab a wild-card playoff spot, and Vice President of Baseball Operations Syd Thrift is named AL Executive of the Year. The plaque ends up on Angelos' wall.
Worst-Case Scenario
After David Segui has the worst year of his career, the O's trade him to the Mets -- again -- and eventually track down Calvin Pickering at a Burger King in Hagerstown. Camden Yards is evacuated when a grease fire at Boog Powell's barbecue stand erupts into a three-alarm blaze. The umps postpone the afternoon game, but Angelos promptly reschedules it for that night. Charging a separate admission, of course. Cal Ripken abruptly retires after breaking his leg in a freak clubhouse accident and has uncharacteristically harsh words for Albert Belle: "I don't know how many times I told him not to leave that walker laying in front of my locker."
Bottom Line
The Orioles are old, plagued by health problems and wondering if any of their pitchers can win -- or save -- more than 10 games. Other than that, everything's fine. Honestly, Norman Vincent Peale would have trouble believing Baltimore will even get a whiff of the playoffs. Another fourth-place finish in the AL East seems almost certain -- if the O's get lucky and Devil Rays don't pass them.

Copyright © 2001 CNN/Sports Illustrated An AOL Time Warner Company. All Rights Reserved. Terms under which this service is provided to you. Read our privacy guidelines.