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Ease up on the Braves
Throughout spring training Sports Illustrated senior writer Jeff Pearlman will field your baseball questions. Click here to submit a query and check back next Thursday to read more of his answers. When I was 10 years old, a young Yankees prospect named Brad Arnsberg autographed my baseball at spring training in Ft. Lauderdale. I immediately turned to my Grandpa Nat and said, "Brad's gonna be a star!" Over the next 18 years, I have managed to repeatedly make similarly brilliant (Hagler over Leonard, Pats over the Bears, Emmanuel Lewis wins an Emmy) predictions. On to your questions ...
Will Angels pitcher Ramon Ortiz have a breakout
year?
Yes. In 2002. Last year, before Ortiz went 8-6 with a 5.09 ERA, folks in the Anaheim organization were throwing around the "P comparisons" -- as in Pedro. Bad idea. With a frightening four-seam fastball that hums in the mid-90s and a two-seamer that approaches the same speed, Ortiz is a dashing young right-hander with 15-win stuff. He is, however, no Pedro Martinez. Ortiz wastes too many pitches, and can be out of control (second in the American League in balks, first on the Angels in wild pitches). In short, he's learning. Give the kid time.
Please tell me why the Braves didn't try to get a big-name player during the
off-season? Do you think they will at least attempt to get somebody better than
Rico Brogna at first base? Do you see them making a blockbuster trade before the
season
starts?
Because they're stupid. Hee-hee. Just kidding. Atlanta's John Schuerholz is the Arthur Fonzarelli of general managers (If you're wondering, Syd Thrift is Potsie). He's cool. Super cool. Coolamundo. So cool, he refuses to enter supersonic bidding wars. It's just not his way. Hence, when A-Rod started drawing mad loot, the Braves backed out. Same with Mike Hampton. Atlanta has succeeded much the same way the NFL's 49ers did in the 1980s -- they gradually re-stock the cupboard. Brogna is no Andres Galarraga (or Gerald Perry, for that matter). But he is an above-average glove who's probably good for .280-20-100. In other words, Todd Zeile numbers. I can't imagine the Braves making any blockbusters. With or without Andres, they're the class of the NL East. There's no need.
After 10 years of postseason play, and only one ring to show for it, how much
longer do you think Bobby Cox will be manager of the Braves? Is it his fault
that the Braves cannot win, or is it the players'?
Todd, you seem like a nice dude with a dope wardrobe and all. That said, cut the crap. Every year, the BOBBY COX IS A MORON movement sweeps through America. And every year, the Braves are back in the playoffs with a different cast. Look, Cox isn't as cool as Dusty Baker; as sexy as Bobby Valentine; as smooth as Joe Torre. Frankly, he's an old dude with wrinkly hands. But he's keen as a fox and a struggling player's best friend. He never, ever panics. Last year, the Braves had no John Smoltz, a terrible Reggie Sanders, an injured Brian Jordan, the Rocker distraction -- and still won the East. What more can Cox do?
Is there any truth to the Sammy Sosa-to the-Mets rumors? If so, what are the
Mets planning to give up for him? If the rumors are false, is New York planning
to do anything to upgrade its
outfield?
The chances of Sosa starting the year in Chicago are 95-100 percent. The odds of Sosa finishing the year there: 20-80. If Kerry Wood is Kerry Wood; if Tom Gordon finds his mojo; if Ron Coomer is the second-coming of Lou Gehrig (starring Mark Grace as Wally Pipp); if Corey Patterson is Andruw Jones, then, hell, maybe the Cubs are close enough to being wild-card contenders to keep Sosa. Reality, however, says Chicago is, at best, a fourth-place club. Fourth-place clubs generally shed expensive malcontents in the final year of their contracts. The Mets have talked with the Cubs more than once about Sosa, but the clubs have never come especially close to making a deal. One hang-up: New York will not part with outfield prospect Alex Escobar, who hit 16 homers at Class AA Binghamton in 2000. The Mets have talked with Boston about outfielder Troy O'Leary, but unless they decide to give up Escobar, a deal won't happen. In other words, get ready for the Timo Perez era .
The Astros, Rangers and Dodgers flopped big-time last year, while the Giants,
A's, White Sox and Mariners surprised. I think people will be surprised by how
good the Dodgers, Rockies and Rangers will be this year, and I think the Giants
and Red Sox will flop. Which teams do you think will surprise us with how bad or
good they
are?
Brian, it's always the same ol', same ol' in the wacky world of baseball: pitching is good, no pitching bites. The Rangers have an $800 trillion shortstop and a starting rotation of Steve Trout, Dave Fleming, Cecilio Guante, Joe Cowley and Adrienne Mand (my 4-foot-10 neighbor swears she can throw harder than Darren Oliver, and who's to argue?). The Rockies play in gravity-free Planet X, and the Dodgers start a man named Carlos Perez (no more need be said). In other words, don't put in for playoff tickets just yet. The surprising team of 2001 will be Kansas City, a high-flying, run-per-second group that, oddly, improved with the trade of Johnny Damon. For the first time since Pee Wee's Big Adventure, the Royals have, in Roberto Hernandez, a legit closer. Plus, Brian Meadows will win 15 games. Count on it. In the NL, the Marlins are better than the Mets and could, with some luck, find wild-card bliss.
With the loss of the best pure hitter in baseball (Manny Ramirez), and the
acquisitions of Ellis Burks and Juan Gonzalez, are the Cleveland Indians still a
threat to win the American League pennant and maybe a World Series
trophy?
If Gonzalez's back is healthy (a huge if), there's no reason to think he can't put up Manny-esque numbers in Jacobs Field. Still, it's hard to imagine a Charles Nagy- less Tribe overcoming the White Sox, Yankees, A's, Mariners and Royals to reach the World Series. Jaret Wright, ace by default, has a whale-sized wad of questions to answer, and, sooner or later, Kenny Lofton (age 33), Roberto Alomar (33), Omar Vizquel (33), Travis Fryman (32) and Jim Thome (30) will have to start slowing down. And sooner might be sooner than later.
What are the chances that the Florida Marlins can give the Braves and Mets a
run for the NL East title? The Marlins have a lot of young talent and a pitching
staff similar to the Braves rotation of the early 1990's. I am looking
forward to a very good
season.
Todd, did you know that Tom Glavine - -THE Tom Glavine -- once lost 17 games in a season? Seriously. I thought about that a lot last year, watching righty Brad Penny struggle through an 8-7, 4.81 ERA rookie season. The Marlins have (and will) take their lumps, but something is definitely cooking in Miami. A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, Ryan Dempster, Jason Grilli, Blaine Neal -- remember the names, because Miami is on the verge of putting together a staff for the ages. Are they good enough to bolt past Atlanta? Not even close. Can they win 90, maybe 92 games and creep into the wild card race? Possibly.
Why do sportswriters constantly harp on the age of the Diamondbacks? Randy
Johnson is the grizzled veteran of this team, but he's younger than Roger
Clemens. I suppose the Mark Grace signing raised a "red flag," but
Erubial Durazo is waiting in the wings, so who cares? I understand the Orioles
analogy, but I think the '83 Phillies, who had one position-player starter under
age 30, are a better
analogy.
Connie, this is just a guess, but I'd say we're hard on Arizona's old farts because, well, they're old farts. Know why a team featuring Nolan Ryan, Reggie Jackson, Rod Carew, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, J.R. Richard and Yogi Berra would get its butt kicked by the Nashua Pride? Because they're friggin' old, and old people don't play professional baseball. Yes, the D-Backs have some great veteran talent. But -- surprise! -- they no longer have the buckage to buy more players, and their minor league supply ain't great (although we dig outfielder Jack Cust). As for Durazo, a bum right wrist killed his 2000 season and took some bloom off the rose. Enter Grace.
Which players do you see as sleepers who could either have breakout years
themselves and/or help propel their teams above expectations early
on?
As I said above, I have a weird hunch about K.C. righty Brian Meadows, who won six of his 10 starts for the Royals last year. He doesn't throw hard, but his slider is awfully nasty. I know, I know. Meadows is a career 35-38 pitcher. Just trust me. Milwaukee is a terrible team that's doomed to finish in last place, but -- should he stay healthy -- right-hander Jeff D'Amico is the real thing. He was 12-7 with a 2.66 ERA last season, another light thrower who can pick his spots. Also, don't be surprised if Quinton McCracken makes a larger-than-expected contribution in St. Louis. Three seasons back, when he was the flavor of the year with Tampa, McCracken was a high-speed dynamo. He has lost some of that burst to a torn knee ligament, but McCracken is Tony LaRussa's type of guy: hard-nosed, gritty and willing. He'll get his shot. Shawn Green, Robin Ventura, Ron Belliard and Scott Brosius all are due for improved seasons.
I attend spring training, and it seems as if the big-name players really
don't like to deal with fans. Do you agree? I go to get close to the players in
a more casual setting. Some seem to enjoy people, but others tend to be very put
off by the contact. The big-name clubs and stars for
sure.
Leighton, my advice: Instead of wilting in the 90-degree heat waiting for players' autographs, wilt in the 90-degree heat waiting for obscure journalists' autographs. We only turn people down if there's a free (FREE!) media buffet, and we have good handwriting. Actually, I have to disagree with your sentiment. Spring training is the best time to bug the stars. They're fresh and loose and more happy to talk.
Click here to send a spring training question to Jeff Pearlman.
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