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Billy Wagner is throwing 100 mph again -- eight months removed from elbow surgery. Harry How /Allsport

By Rich Loup, CNNSI.com

The Houston Astros opened a new era in 2000, but it brought some unfamiliar -- and unwanted -- results.

After honing a tradition of solid pitching and defense in the cavernous Astrodome, Houston moved into Enron Field, a stadium with dimensions only slightly less appealing to hitters than a Little League field. As a result, the Astros' pitching staff was knocked around and Houston looked like the Bad News Bears in falling to 72-90, the franchise's worst record since 1991.

Chalk up much of the Astros' fall from three-time defending Central Division champs to fourth place to the collapse of their pitching staff. Billy Wagner was hampered by a bad elbow and threw his last pitch in June after a disastrous first two months of the season. Jose Lima and Shane Reynolds were nowhere close to the forms they displayed in the Astros' division-winning seasons (1997-99). And Houston clearly missed Mike Hampton, who fled to the New York Mets and helped them reach the World Series.

Top Guns Astros 2000 team leaders Avg.  Moises Alou  .355  HR  Jeff Bagwell  47  RBIs  Jeff Bagwell  132  SB  Roger Cedeno  25  Wins  Scott Elarton  17  ERA  Scott Elarton  4.81  Ks  Octavio Dotel  142  Saves  Octavio Dotel  29    Go Figure 3,056,139 The Astros' attendance last year, the most ever for any sports franchise in the state of Texas.

But there is room for guarded optimism in Houston entering the 2001 season. Wagner appears to be healthy again and his fastball has been clocked in the high 90s. Jeff Bagwell signed a six-year contract extension that makes it more likely that he will finish his career as an Astro. Budding star Richard Hidalgo also inked a four-year, $32 million contract that helps the Astros turn their attention elsewhere. And Houston plays in the NL Central, which could be the weakest division in baseball.

With the unbalanced schedule, the Astros will play 83 of their games in the NL Central -- compared to 63 last season. The Astros' first 18 games are within the division, including series on consecutive April weekends against defending champion St. Louis. A quick start and the Astros are back in the driver's seat.

But the Astros are relying on plenty of ifs. General manager Gerry Hunsicker believes he's bolstered his middle relief corps with the addition of Mike Jackson, Doug Brocail and Nelson Cruz. All have had success, but still have inconsistent reputations to overcome. Houston added to its infield depth by signing Jose Vizcaino and Charlie Hayes, but the Astros will need to be in contention for their contributions to mean much.

In all, Houston has the potential to rebound, but another 72-90 season also is a distinct possibility.

Arrivals
Pos.	Player	From	Via
C	Brad Ausmus	Tigers	Trade
RHP	Kent Bottenfield	Angels	Free Agency
RHP	Doug Brocail	Tigers	Trade
RHP	Nelson Cruz	Tigers	Trade
3B	Charlie Hayes	Brewers	Free Agency
RHP	Mike Jackson	Phillies	Free Agency
C	Jeff Reed	Cubs	Free Agency
INF	Jose Vizcaino	Yankees	Free Agency

Departures
Pos.	Player	To	Via
INF	Tim Bogar	Dodgers	Free Agency
3B	Ken Caminiti	Rangers	Free Agency
OF	Roger Cedeno	Tigers	Trade
RHP	Chris Holt	Tigers	Trade
C	Mitch Meluskey	Tigers	Trade

Spring Cleaning

Jose Lima Can Wagner and Lima rebound? Wagner, the NL's most dominant closer in 1999, was abysmal for the first 2 1/2 months of 2000, before his season ended with an injury to his left elbow. Lima, a flyball pitcher who won 21 games in 1999 as he pitched in the roomy Astrodome, was shell-shocked by the move to Enron and finished 7-16 with an astounding 6.65 ERA while surrendering an NL-record 48 home runs. How will the rotation shake out? Scott Elarton (17-7, 4.81 ERA) blossomed into a No. 1 starter for the Astros and his continued development was one of the few 2000 bright spots. Reynolds (7-8, 5.22 ERA) was hampered by a bad back in the second half and will miss the first month of 2001. Bottenfield (8-10, 5.40 combined) was disappointing in Anaheim and Philadelphia after an 18-win season with St. Louis in 1999. Octavio Dotel (3-7, 5.40) bombed as a starter, and was inconsistent as a closer (16 saves). Wade Miller (6-6, 5.14) and Tony McKnight (4-1, 3.86) had mixed results in their 2000 auditions for the starting rotation. Houston should be set offensively after hitting a NL-record 249 home runs in 2000. But two important questions remain. One, can Craig Biggio (.268, 8 HR, 35 RBI) return to full-time action and regain his top-level productivity? Biggio, 35, had an off-year in 2000 before he blew out his knee and missed the final two months of the season. Two, will the Astros trade young slugger Daryle Ward? Since switch-hitting Lance Berkman (.297, 21 HR, 67 RBI) is a better defensive player, Ward (.258, 20 HR, 47 RBI) is the odd man out in Houston's productive outfield. How much rope does manager Larry Dierker have left? Dierker led the Astros to division titles in each of his first three years, but he was the subject of a near-mutiny last season as Houston took a nosedive. Management announced at the end of last season that Dierker would return in 2001, but another slow start could send him back to the broadcast booth.

Team Breakdown
Projected Lineup		Projected Rotation
SS	Jose Vizcaino/Julio Lugo	RHP	Scott Elarton
2B	Craig Biggio	RHP	Shane Reynolds
1B	Jeff Bagwell	RHP	Octavio Dotel
RF	Moises Alou	RHP	Jose Lima
CF	Richard Hidalgo	RHP	Kent Bottenfield
LF	Lance Berkman	Bullpen
3B	Chris Truby/Bill Spiers	LHP	Billy Wagner (closer)
C	Brad Ausmus	RHP	Doug Brocail
Key Reserves		RHP	Mike Jackson
C	Tony Eusebio	RHP	Nelson Cruz
OF	Glen Barker	RHP	Wade Miller
OF	Daryle Ward	RHP	Jay Powell

Prospects to Watch
RHP Roy Oswalt -- At Class AA Round Rock, Oswalt (15-7 in A and AA combined) took the Texas League by storm and had the league's lowest ERA (1.94) in a decade. He'll probably start in Class AAA New Orleans this year, but don't be surprised if he gets a shot in Houston should the Astros' pitching problems continue. LHP Wilfredo Rodriguez -- Rodriguez struggled with a combined 5-9 record in A and AA, including a 3-5 mark and 5.77 ERA at Round Rock. He needs more time before he will be considered much of a big league factor. RHP Tim Redding -- Redding was outstanding at Class A Kissimmee last year (12-5, 2.68 ERA). He made a brief stop at Round Rock (2-0, 3.46) and should start there this season. SS Adam Everett -- Everett was the key acquistion for Houston in the Carl Everett trade with Boston last offseason. Adam Everett struggled at the plate with New Orleans (.245, 5 HR, 37 RBI), but reports say his defense was strong. He'll probably start again in the Big Easy, since the Astros signed veteran Jose Vizcaino to go along with Julio Lugo.
Best-Case Scenario
Bottenfield, Lima and Wagner regain their 1999 forms, Elarton continues to dominate, and Jackson, Brocail and newly acquired Nelson Cruz provide solid middle-relief depth. Brad Ausmus' presence makes Jeff Bagwell happy and provides a calming effect on the Astros' pitching staff. Chris Truby and Julio Lugo solidify the left side of the infield both offensively and defensively. Houston doesn't make another trade with Detroit after Astros president Tal Smith has a falling out with his son, Randy, who is the Tigers GM.
Worst-Case Scenario
Bottenfield and Lima bomb again, Wagner can't recover from elbow surgery, Biggio doesn't make it back from knee surgery. Manager Larry Dierker faces another year of clubhouse revolt and is canned in April after a 6-15 start. Since the Smiths are so cozy, the Astros and Tigers merge as part of the franchise consolidation plan.
Bottom Line
The Astros will be better in 2001, but not as good as management thinks. Houston should benefit from the new, unbalanced schedule, which gives them more games in a weak division. But there are still too many pitching questions that need answering, and the Astros proved last year that offense alone doesn't translate into victories. Look for 85 wins at the most, with a chance to steal the division crown if St. Louis collapses.

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