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| Stephen Cannella's World Series
Breakdown |
| Starters: This series has more aces than a crooked poker game. The
Diamondbacks will live or die by supermen Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson -- if
the Yankees beat either one in the first two games, Arizona is in serious
trouble. Game 3 starter Brian Anderson lost his spot in the rotation in August,
but D'Backs manager Bob Brenly likes the idea of a left-hander pitching against
New York's lineup in Yankee Stadium. The underrated Miguel Batista, who has a
96-mph cutter that can be devastating, will go in Game 4; don't be surprised to
see him pitch out of the bullpen early in the series. The Yankees can come close
to matching Schilling and Johnson with Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte in the
first two games -- someone will have to throw a shutout to win one of those.
Roger Clemens and Orlando Hernandez have been shaky in the postseason, but both
are capable of throwing gems, especially against a Diamondbacks lineup that has
been struggling. None of New York's Big Four is on a postseason roll like
Schilling and Johnson, but the depth of the Yankees' rotation should be enough
to nail down the
series.
|
Advantage: 
|
|
| Bullpen: When Randy Johnson got in trouble late in Game 5 of the NLCS and
was about to face Chipper Jones and Brian Jordan, the Braves' two best hitters,
the best Brenly could do was get 42-year-old Mike Morgan warming in the pen.
That tells you all you need to know about Arizona's relief corps. The only thing
close to a power arm is closer Byung-Hyun Kim, and he's no sure thing in
pressure spots. Everyone else (Morgan, Bobby Witt, Greg Swindell) is ancient and
relies on location and guile to get hitters out. The Yankees pen isn't deep, but
with Joe Torre now often calling on Mariano Rivera for two-inning stints, New
York plays a shorter game than everyone else. Ramiro Mendoza and Mike Stanton,
two of the best postseason relievers in history, are enough to get to Rivera as
long as the starters pitch into the sixth inning.
|
Advantage: 
|
|
| Catcher: In a lineup full of clutch hitters, Jorge Posada is one of the
most dangerous. The Diamondbacks would do well to force the switch-hitter to bat
from the right side, where he has less power, late in the game. Posada has had
some problems defensively this season, especially with passed balls. Damian
Miller, on the other hand, is excellent at blocking the ball, an important skill
considering that many of Schilling's splitters and Johnson's sliders dive into
the dirt. Both pitchers say Miller deserves a Gold Glove. He doesn't have a lot
of power, but he's a decent
hitter.
|
Advantage: 
|
|
| First Base: Mark Grace isn't a home run threat at what should be a power
position, but he's a smart and dependable hitter, and his defense and soft hands
probably save the Diamondbacks an error per game. Grace has a good postseason
track record, and that should continue in the first World Series of his 14-year
career. Tino Martinez is the Yankees' most consistent power threat, and he
should flourish against Arizona's predominantly right-handed bullpen.
|
Advantage: EVEN |
|
| Second Base: Craig Counsell is solid defensively, and he seems to be in
the middle of things every time the Diamondbacks score. He might be the hitter
Brenly most wants to see at the plate when his team needs a baserunner. If
leadoff hitter Tony Womack gets on, look for Counsell to bunt or hit-and-run
behind him. Alfonso Soriano -- remember, he's a rookie and this is his first
season at the position -- makes the occasional mental mistake in the field, but
he can make up for those with his bat and speed.
|
Advantage:
 |
|
| Third Base: Matt Williams' bat has looked slow throughout the postseason
(he has just two extra base hits and no homers). He's a plus defensively, but
the fitful Diamondbacks' offense desperately needs him to start driving the
ball. Scott Brosius' Gold Glove-caliber defense will be tested: Arizona
left-handers like Counsell and Womack made their living going the other way in
the NLCS. Brosius hasn't exactly been on fire at the plate either -- he's
hitting .121 in the postseason and will have trouble if Arizona pounds him
inside.
|
Advantage:
 |
|
| Shortstop: Derek Jeter was completely out of whack at the plate during
the ALCS, chasing pitches in the dirt and letting fat fastballs go by. The
four-day layoff before Game 1 will help him tremendously -- he might still be
recovering from his tumble into the stands in the Division Series. Even so, is
there a more clutch postseason player in the game today? Womack has to get on
base, something he did well against the Braves. If the leadoff hitter doesn't
get things started, the Diamondbacks' offense suffers.
|
Advantage: 
|
|
| Left Field: After a monster regular season, Luis Gonzalez has been quiet
(.211 in the NLCS) in October. The Cardinals and Braves had success jamming him
inside. He has to start turning on those pitches if the Diamondbacks are to
score enough runs in the Series. It's an adventure sometimes, but Chuck
Knoblauch has developed into an adequate outfielder. He's done a better job of
getting on base in the postseason after a horrid regular season. New York's
lineup is much better when he concentrates on getting on and stealing bases
rather than jacking every pitch he sees out of the park.
|
Advantage:
 |
|
| Center Field: Bernie Williams is a streaky hitter, and right now he's
locked in: He's been the Yankees' leading postseason run producer. Williams is
an excellent defender, but he plays shallow and sometimes has trouble getting to
balls over his head. That could be a factor in Bank One Ballpark, which is very
spacious in center. Steve Finley has been Arizona's most consistent hitter in
the postseason, but hasn't shown much power. He, too, is a Gold Glove
outfielder.
|
Advantage: 
|
|
| Right Field: Reggie Sanders will chase pitches and get himself out, but
if he sees a mistake over the plate he'll kill it. Good fastballs up in the zone
from Yankees pitchers should be enough to keep him quiet in the series. Paul
O'Neill is aging and about to retire, and with his slow bat and creaking legs,
he looks it. Still, he's capable of having good at-bats, especially against
Arizona's soft-throwing bullpen. If the Diamondbacks bust him inside they'll be
OK. If they leave anything out over the plate, O'Neill will start spraying hits
around the
field.
|
Advantage: EVEN |
|
| Designated Hitter: David Justice isn't as frightening at the plate as he
once was and doesn't catch up to good heat anymore, but his bat seems to speed
up in the postseason. He's a spotlight player. The Diamondbacks' deep bench
gives them several choices at DH. Erubiel Durazo got most of the starts there in
interleague play; Jay Bell will probably DH against left-hander Andy Pettitte.
Durazo will add much-needed power to the
lineup.
|
Advantage:  |
|
| Bench: An Arizona strength. Durazo, Dave Dellucci, Greg Colbrunn and
Danny Bautista are a deep and balanced group. All four are dangerous bats off
the bench, and Bautista is solid outfielder. With so many options, Brenly can
usually create a favorable matchup against any bullpen. The Yankees aren't as
deep. Shane Spencer has a lot of power, especially against left-handers, and
Luis Sojo is a dangerous pinch hitter because he swings at everything and makes
contact. Clay Bellinger is little more than a pinch runner, and Enrique Wilson
is a versatile defensive replacement in the infield. But Torre won't rely on his
bench to win a game for
him.
|
Advantage:
|
|
| Manager: Brenly made a bunch of offbeat decisions in the first two
postseason rounds, and everything he did worked. He lets his veteran team play
without overmanaging, and when Schilling and Johnson are pitching he can be as
much of a spectator as you and I. But, unlike his Yankees' counterpart, he is
inexperienced. Torre, meanwhile, has seen everything there is to be seen at this
time of year. It's sounds like a broken record: He's the best postseason manager
of his generation, and no one's better at guiding a team through the pressures
of
October.
|
Advantage: 
|
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| Prediction: In theory the Diamondbacks have enough to win the Series --
Schilling and Johnson just have to win all four of their starts. That's easier
said than done against the Yankees, though, who have dominant starters of their
own and are smart enough to steal one of those games. New York is better suited
to manufacture runs in tight situations than the station-to-station Diamondbacks
are. And it can't be overstated: With Mariano Rivera looming in the pen, Arizona
really only has seven innings to grab a lead. Schilling and Johnson are
fearsome, but they're not enough to trip up the New York dynasty.
|
Yankees in 7 
|
Sports Illustrated baseball writer Stephen Cannella will contribute regularly
to CNNSI.com throughout the World
Series.
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