WORLD SERIES FORECAST

Kurkjian's keys to success

Posted: Fri October 17, 1997

Sports Illustrated's Tim Kurkjian has attended 17 World Series. Here are his observations on this one:

There isn't a person on earth who picked a Marlins-Indians World Series when the playoffs began Sept. 30. This is the beauty of baseball. It defies analysis.

The keys for Cleveland

1) Orel Hershiser. The Game 1 starter is one of the great high-stakes pitchers of all time. His career post-season record is 8-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He pitched a gem in the late-afternoon shadows in Game 3 of the LCS against Baltimore. Many critics have wondered if this will be Hershiser's last season. He seems intent on either proving them wrong, or going out with a bang.

2) Jim Thome. The Cleveland first baseman is completely lost at the plate. In his last 71 at-bats, he has 12 hits (.169), no homers and one RBI. If the Indians can't get him started in this series, it's hard to imagine them winning.

3) The bullpen. The Tribe's relievers out-pitched Baltimore's bullpen in the ALCS, which was a shock. Setup man Mike Jackson was terrific. If the starters can go six...

The Florida keys

1) Kevin Brown. The Marlins' ace, the man with the nastiest stuff in the major leagues. Almost no one can hit him. If he's right, he'll win two games in this series. Pertinent numbers: Cleveland shortstop Omar Vizquel is 3-for-31 (.097) against Brown lifetime. Utility man Kevin Seitzer is 14-for-36 (.389) off him. But the last time Brown pitched in the AL (for Texas in 1995), he was 0-4 with a 5.20 ERA against Cleveland.

2) Livan Hernandez. A Cuban defector pitching Game 1 of the World Series. Is this a great country or what? Hernandez struck out 15 in Game 5 of the NLCS, which means he has good stuff (although it didn't hurt to have Eric Gregg behind the plate). But there will be enormous pressure on him with No. 2 starter Alex Fernandez out for the postseason with a torn rotator cuff. Can Hernandez hold up for at least two more starts?

3) The Leyland Factor. Manager Jim Leyland has waited forever for this chance. He's a great manager, and he has these guys believing that they can win.

Marlins in seven.