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Baseball '00: Midseason Update

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Posted: Monday July 10, 2000 03:34 PM

Plus, we have second-half predictions and storylines to follow from Sports Illustrated's baseball writers, and Jeff Pearlman's Hot List. And don't miss "Who Would You Choose?", a photo gallery with polls allowing you to vote on everything from the biggest surprise of the season to the best player never to make an All-Star team.

St. Louis Cardinals

Prospect Watch Mark Nussbeck, RHP Off to a torrid start, Nussbeck leads Class AAA Memphis in victories (9-4). In May, he went 4-0 with a 1.34 ERA and also had a stretch of 20 consecutive scoreless innings.

Flashback. Jim Edmonds, acquired from the Angels less than two weeks before Opening Day in a trade for pitcher Kent Bottenfield, paid immediate dividends as the Cardinals opened the season 7-1. Edmonds hit .520 with three home runs, eight RBIs and nine runs scored during that stretch. The revamped starting rotation -- featuring newcomers Darryl Kile (11 victories), Andy Benes (9) and Pat Hentgen (8) -- as well as youngster Garrett Stephenson (9) -- had a combined 37 victories in the first half. Mark McGwire showed no signs of slowing down, belting 30 home runs and boasting a major league-leading .747 slugging percentage before the break. The Cardinals remained atop the NL Central for all but three days during the first half.

Fast Forward. If the Cards' pitching staff can hold up, that lead could be insurmountable. The team should get a boost from third baseman Fernando Tatis, who on June 30 returned from a groin injury that caused him to most of the first half. With 552 career home runs, McGwire is in position to pass Reggie Jackson (563), Harmon Killebrew (573) and Frank Robinson (586), and move into fourth place on the all-time list.

You Oughta Know. Veteran right-hander Andy Benes (9-3, 4.47 ERA) likes the dog days of summer. For his career he's 29 games over .500 in July, August and September. St. Louis will be on the road for 17 of its first 20 games after the All-Star break.

Cincinnati Reds

Prospect Watch Travis Dawkins, SS Defense and speed are Dawkins' strengths, but he needs to improve on what he can do with the bat. The 21-year-old went 9-for-41 (.220) in a stint with the big club when Barry Larkin was hurt earlier this year. Dawkins, better known as Gookie, now at Class AA Chattanooga, will make the perfect future double-play partner for Pokey Reese.

Flashback. The Reds were seven games over .500 on June 4, but then fell apart, losing 20 of 32 going into the break. The slide left Cincinnati eight games behind St. Louis in the Central Division. Ken Griffey Jr. provided power (28 HRs, 72 RBIs) but had a disappointing first half, batting just .238. Right-hander Pete Harnisch (1-5, 7.51 ERA) missed nearly two months with a right rotator cuff injury. First baseman Sean Casey, whose .371 average at the midway point last season earned him a spot on the All-Star team, barely creeped above .250 in the first half. Remarkably, reliever Danny Graves, who emerged as the closer last season, led the club in victories and saves while posting an ERA less than 2.00.

Fast Forward. The Reds meet the Cardinals only three more times, as the teams close out the regular season at Busch Stadium. If Cincinnati doesn't get its starting pitching straightened out by then, the games won't matter. Ron Villone and Steve Parris must improve on their 5-plus ERAs and need to chew up more innings to save a bullpen that's being taxed heavily for the second consecutive season. Offensively, the Reds will be fine, especially if Griffey and Casey bring up their averages.

You Oughta Know. Scott Williamson (62 1/3), Scott Sullivan (55 1/3), Graves (54 1/3) and Manny Aybar (52) rank first, second, third and fifth, respectively, among NL relievers in innings pitched. It's no surprise that the Reds are the only team besides San Diego that hasn't thrown a complete game.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Prospect Watch Sam McConnell, LHP McConnell is dominating the Eastern League at Class AA Altoona, ranking first in the league in ERA (1.61) and second in victories (9). The Pirates could use a southpaw to complement their surplus of right-handers: (Kris Benson, Francisco Cordova, Todd Ritchie and Jason Schmidt).

Flashback. Despite expectations to win 90 games this year, the Pirates couldn't get out of their own way. Pittsburgh started the season 6-12, dropped seven of eight in late May to fall to 20-28, and in June bottomed out after being swept at home by the Florida Marlins to hit the break with a 38-48 record. Rookies Aramis Ramirez and Chad Hermansen failed to get it done after being given everyday jobs in spring training and were sent down to Class AAA Nashville. The highly regarded pitching staff was set back by injuries to right-handers Francisco Cordova and Jason Schmidt. Outfielder Brian Giles put up impressive numbers (.317, 21 HRs and 72 RBIs -- all club highs) and was rewarded with a five-year contract extension worth at least $45 million, not to mention an All-Star berth.

Fast Forward. It looks as if Pittsburgh is out of St. Louis' reach in the standings, especially with Schmidt expected to be sidelined for another two months with inflammation in his right shoulder. Rumors had been swirling that manager Gene Lamont was in trouble -- first base coach Joe Jones and third base coach Jack Lind were fired June 6 -- though ownership recently came out and said Lamont would finish out the year and not be used as a scapegoat. Still, there's pressure on the Pirates to have a strong second half. At least the team has next year's move to brand new PNC Park to look forward to.

You Oughta Know. Pittsburgh could be involved in a trade before the July 31 deadline. Cordova and right-hander Todd Ritchie are being sought after by some of the contending clubs, most notably the Yankees and the Braves. After three decades, the Pirates say goodbye to Three Rivers Stadium; the farewell game will be against the Cubs on October 1, the last day of the season.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prospect Watch Ben Sheets, RHP Milwaukee's No. 1 pick in the 1999 draft, Sheets was 5-3 with a 1.88 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 72 innings at Class AA Huntsville before being promoted to Class AAA Indianapolis in mid-June. The 6'1", 195-pounder has an excellent shot at being a September call-up.

Flashback. New manager Davey Lopes didn't fare any better than ex-manager Phil Garner (who was fired last August, when Milwaukee was 22 1/2 games out of first), as the Brewers ranked at the bottom of the league in hitting (.247) and, most important, victories. Walks haunted the pitching staff, which leads the majors in free passes. After winning 11 games last season, Steve Woodard went 1-6 with a 6.22 ERA in the first half. Emerging star outfielder Geoff Jenkins missed 3 1/2 weeks with a fractured finger, and outfielder Jeromy Burnitz struggled at the plate (.218). Closer Bob Wickman was one of the few bright spots, having converted 13 of 17 save opportunities.

Fast Forward. With a below-average rotation and mediocre lineup, Milwaukee is headed for its eighth consecutive losing season. The key question is, will the Brewers spend for free agents -- especially pitchers -- before moving to Miller Park in 2001? Also, will Burnitz (a free agent after next season) be traded by the July 31 deadline or will Milwaukee sign him to a long-term extension?

You Oughta Know. Twelve of the Brewers' first 14 games after the All-Star break are on the road. The last game at County Stadium, which opened April 6, 1953, will be September 28 against Cincinnati. County Stadium's right-field fence is only 315 feet from home plate; in Miller Park it will be 345 feet away. Will that have an impact on Burnitz's decision to stay or to go?

Chicago Cubs

Prospect Watch Corey Patterson, OF Described as a five-tool player, Patterson is leading Class AA West Tennessee in home runs and RBIs, and is tied for the team lead in runs scored. The 20-year-old, picked third overall in the 1998 draft, could be the heir to Sosa.

Flashback. The Cubs kicked off the season March 29 with a victory against the New York Mets in Japan, but from there things went downhill fast. They dropped four in a row and six of seven after the Opening Day victory and never recovered, finishing the first half with the second-worst record (33-50) in baseball behind Houstson. To make matters worse, manager Don Baylor and slugger Sammy Sosa waged a war of words that likely will force the outfielder's departure from Chicago. Even before the trade rumors started flying, Sosa had been unhappy with the club's unwillingness to open negotiations to extend his contract beyond next season. Pitching has been a major problem; the Cubs sport the third-worst ERA in the NL (5.23). On May 2, pitcher Kerry Wood returned from an 18-month absence following reconstructive elbow surgery but struggled to regain his form, winning just three of his 12 starts. Chicago played close to .500 ball at Wrigley Field but was a dismal 13-27 on the road.

Fast Forward. It appears that the question is not will Sosa will be traded, but when? Also, will the Cubs opt for a major housecleaning by the July 31 trade deadline, swapping older, higher-priced players who might be of value to pennant contenders -- such as Rick Aguilera, Henry Rodriguez and Kevin Tapani -- for younger blood. Aside from dealing Sosa, Chicago's No. 1 priority should be getting Wood back on track.

You Oughta Know. With 117 home runs the Cubs are ahead of pace to top the club record of 212 dingers set in '98. Center fielder Damon Buford (12 HRs) already has eclipsed his major-league career-high of 10 homers set in '98.

Houston Astros

Prospect Watch Julio Lugo, SS The Astros' shortstop of the future was batting .327 in 24 games for Class AAA New Orleans with four doubles, one triple, three homers, 12 RBIs and 12 stolen bases when he was called up May 27. He hit .304 for the month of June and should see plenty of playing time the rest of the year.

Flashback. Houston swapped the Astrodome for Enron Field, and in the process apparently also traded winning for losing. After finishing atop the NL Central for three consecutive seasons, the Astros slouched into the break with the worst record in baseball. Right-hander Jose Lima followed up a 21-10 season with a 2-13 start. Octavio Dotel, a key part of the deal that sent Mike Hampton to the Mets, struggled (1-5 in 16 starts) before losing his spot in the rotation. The bullpen has imploded, blowing 14 of 25 save opportunities. Closer Billy Wagner was lost for the year after undergoing surgery to repair a partially torn flexor tendon in his left elbow in late June. Seven of eight position players from the Opening Day lineup missed time because of injury or illness as Houston has more closely resembled a M*A*S*H unit than a baseball team.

Fast Forward. All the Astros can do is try to make a run at .500. The development of some of the younger players will be key. Catcher Mitch Meluskey tops NL rookies in several offensive categories while fellow first-year outfielder Lance Berkman looks to improve as well. Outfielder Richard Hidalgo, who is tied with first baseman Jeff Bagwell for the team lead with with 23 home runs, will try and keep up his pace despite a sprained right knee that caused him to miss a week's worth of action in June. Bagwell is signed through the end of this year; the club has an option on him for 2001 and will have to decide whether to pick it up.

You Oughta Know. At 34, Craig Biggio is starting to show his age. Biggio, who is signed through 2003, is headed for his second consecutive season of declining numbers, batting .252 (40 points below his career average) with just five home runs and 29 RBIs.

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