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Posted: Monday July 10, 2000 09:37 PM What will be the big news of the second half? Check out the stories Sports Illustrated's baseball writers will be following. Tom Verducci1. The AL wild card race. The junior circuit's wild card never has come out of the Central or West Division. That's an 0-for-5. The East's hold on the best of the rest award might finally end now that Seattle and Oakland show no signs of fading. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays -- yes, Toronto is for real -- will make for a wild five-team scramble. 2. The John Rocker Show (con't). You didn't think you'd heard the last from Mr. Sensitivity, did you? Can he throw strikes with any consistency? Can the Braves count on him in the clutch to close games? Can he get through the rest of the season without incident? What makes Johnny tick, tick, tick ... ? 3. Realignment. A major overhaul once again appears tabled, and now the issue might be headed for the next round of labor negotiations. But we do need a schedule for next year at some point this season. Will the owners have Tampa Bay and Arizona switch leagues and leave it at that for the time being? Or does Jerry Colangelo get to stay in the NL and Vince Naimoli get to keep his DHs? It's looking more and more like no changes for 2001. Stay tuned. 4. Darin Erstad's hits and Preston Wilson's strikeouts. Yes, Junior, Barry and Mac might give us a grand home run race between future Hall of Famers. But don't lose track of these other record chasers. Their numbers are climbing at amazing paces. Erstad is threatening George Sisler's 80-year-old record of 257 hits. Wilson almost surely will shatter Bobby Bonds' 30-year-old mark of 189 Ks. 5. Umpire negotiations. MLB saw Richie Phillips' infamous negotiating gaffe as an open door for complete umpire reform. The umpires, while willing to bend, don't like being told when they can and can't speak -- or the idea of being fired at close to a moment's notice. If the impasse holds up much longer, whispers of a work stoppage will turn into real threats. Jeff Pearlman 1. The Montreal Expos become the Guam Expos. Guam is warm, flat and boasts a solid seven baseball fans (six more than all of Canada). If not Guam, either Washington, D.C. or, more likely, Charlotte. No question -- this is it for Montreal and baseball. C-ya. 2. Baltimore re-enters the AL East fray. Don't ask how (or why), but the old, bitter, battered O's will ride Albert Belle's bat into contention. They won't win the division, but ... 3. Neither will the Yankees. The Red Sox, featuring a hot-hitting rookie outfielder named Morgan Burkhart (dug up from the Frontier League two years ago), will win 93 games, enough to outlast Toronto by three, the Yanks and O's by five, and Tampa by 22 1/2. (In a hissy fit over missing the playoffs, George Steinbrenner will fire Joe Torre, release Shane Spencer, return the DH platoon of Ron Kittle and Dan Pasqua and re-name Yankee Stadium "KayBee Toy Store Pavilion"). 4. The home run race. Don't be shocked if Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey and Barry Bonds enter the final weekend of the season with 69 homers apiece. Actually, don't be shocked if they enter the final weekend with 169 apiece. 5. Low-budget revenge. The White Sox and A's will stay in the hunt for division titles, while Montreal and Kansas City loom as wild-card challengers. Stephen Cannella 1. Wild, wild Wests. Espresso shots, jumping jacks, No-Doz -- do whatever it takes to stay up late down the stretch, because two of the better divisional races will take place out West while most of the country sleeps. In the AL, the A's and Mariners haven't been separated by more than three games since the beginning of June; Seattle, more solid defensively and deeper in pitching, should eke out the division title. In the NL, the Diamondbacks suddenly find themselves in a dogfight with the retooled pesky Giants (3 1/2 games back) and the Rockies, who had clawed back to within 4 1/2 games by the break. The Dodgers also are lurking at six games back. The D'backs will survive, but they'll earn it: Arizona ends the season with five games at San Francisco, four at Colorado and three more at home against the Giants. 2. The best teams nobody sees. Their local fans may not appreciate it -- both clubs are among baseball's bottom three in average attendance -- but the Expos and Marlins have two of the best collections of young talent in the game. Montreal's Vladimir Guerrero has his name splattered all over the NL's offensive leaderboards, second baseman Jose Vidro leads the league in doubles and is second in hitting, and starters Carl Pavano and Javier Vazquez are future top-of-the-rotation studs. Thanks to an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young arms, the Marlins have the NL's third-best ERA. In second baseman Luis Castillo and center fielder Preston Wilson, they have a leadoff man and power hitter to build around. Both teams will flirt with .500 in the second half -- a huge improvement over 1999, when they were a combined 60 games under .500. The more important numbers, however, will be attendance figures. Montreal owner Jeffrey Loria seems ready to move his team south of the border; his Marlins counterpart, John Henry, insists his club can't survive in South Florida without more support and a new ballpark. Stay tuned. 3. The free-agent derby. Pennant races are fun, but this year they're a prelude to what should be a blockbuster offseason. Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, Mike Mussina and a host of other big-name free agents-to-be line up for a busy signing season. The fun will begin at the July 31 trading deadline. Any contract extensions signed by team-switching stars then will set the market for the winter -- when A-Rod takes a shot at becoming the game's first $20 million (per year) man. 4. Second coming. A-Rod, Nomar and Derek made shortstop the AL's glamour position; a crop of young, offense-minded stars is doing the same for second base in the NL. Vidro (age: 25), Castillo (24) and the Mets' Edgardo Alfonzo (26) are three of the four second basemen who finished June in the league's top 10 in hitting. The Giants' Jeff Kent, an ancient 32, also was in there, plus he led the league in RBIs. And don't forget about 25-year-old Ron Belliard of the Brewers, still raw in his second full season but leading his team in hits (98) and is second in on-base percentage (.374). 5. The goofy schedule. Teams locked in tight races will be doing a lot of scoreboard-watching down the stretch, because games between intradivision rivals will be few and far between. For example: Oakland plays Seattle just four times after July 27, and the A's have a mere 11 games against AL West opponents after Aug. 1. The Red Sox and Blue Jays already have wrapped up their season series. The Cardinals and Reds see each other just three times in the second half (albeit on the season's final weekend).
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