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SI's Baseball Preview 2000
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EVENTS
 Sportsman of the Year
 Heisman Trophy
 Swimsuit 2001


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2. Houston Astros

Age and injuries are catching up to the Astros, as is the rest of the division

By Steve Cannella

 
Around the Horn
Offense
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Defense
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Starting Pitching
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Bullpen
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Manager
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1999 Record
97-65 (first in NL Central)
Batting Order
2BCraig Biggio
CFRoger Cedeño
1B Jeff Bagwell
3B Ken Caminiti
RFMoises Alou
LF Richard Hidalgo
C Tony Eusebio
SS Tim Bogar
Bench
OF Daryle Ward
OFBill Spiers
OF Matt Mieske
CRuss Johnson
CPaul Bako
Starters
RH Jose Lima
LH Shane Reynolds
RH Octavio Dotel
RH Chris Holt
RH Dwight Gooden
Bullpen
LH Billy Wagner
RH Jay Powell
RH Doug Henry
RH Jose Cabrera
LH Trever Miller
RH Scott Elarton
Next Up...
There's no question Daryle Ward, the son of former major leaguer Gary Ward, deserves a spot in the lineup. "He's poised and just a really good, strong hitter," says third baseman Ken Caminiti. "Daddy obviously taught him all the secrets." The 24-year-old Ward showed he was listening. After hitting .353 at Triple A New Orleans last season, he was called up to the big league club, where he hit eight home runs and drove in 30 runs in only 150 at bats. Though Ward will not start, manager Larry Dierker will squeeze the lefthanded slugger into games on days when surgically repaired outfielders Moises Alou and Richard Hidalgo need to rest their bones. "I would be thrilled to get him 300 at bats, especially since a lot of righthanded pitchers give our lineup trouble," Dierker says. "Our veterans say they really like to watch him hit."
The Book
An opposing team's scout sizes up the Astros
"This is the third year in a row the Astros have lost a No. 1 starter. That's going to catch up with them. They don't have a lot of pitching depth.... Reynolds and Lima give the Astros an edge over the Reds. Cincinnati has a bunch of starters who could win 12 to 15 games, but they could easily lose just as many.... Chris Holt looks like he's all the way back from his arm injury. He's looked great in spring training.... Octavio Dotel has better stuff than Holt, but he's inconsistent and has a lot of pressure on him after coming over in the Hampton trade.... The Astros don't have a true frontline catcher. Tony Eusebio doesn't want to catch more than three times a week. Mitch Meluskey can hit, but he's not very smart behind the plate.... Shortstop Adam Everett was spectacular in the field in the spring. He might be up playing every day in August, if not before then.... The keys for this team are how long Caminiti can stay healthy and if Moises Alou is all the way back from his injury. When Alou's right he turns on the fastball better than anybody, including Vinny Castilla."
Right in the middle of manager Larry Dierker's confab with the media after the Astros' first full-squad spring workout, a high-pitched electronic beep began to echo throughout the interview room. As befuddled reporters reached for their cell phones and pagers, Dierker realized the sound was emanating from his wrist. "This damn talking watch," Dierker said, laughing as he struggled to silence a timepiece Dick Tracy would envy. "I'm wearing it, and I don't even know how to use it."

Alarms of a more silent type have also been going off in the Houston clubhouse this spring, for the clock is ticking on these Astros and their dominance of the National League Central. After winning three straight division titles and building the third-best winning percentage in baseball (.582, behind the Yankees and the Braves) since 1997, the aging and injury-prone Astros are slipping back toward the pack. "Other teams in our division have improved," says general manager Gerry Hunsicker, referring to the Reds and the Cardinals in particular. "But we're still the team they have to knock off."

Astros The promising Dotel can bring the heat, but he will feel plenty of it too as he attempts to replace the NL's winningest hurler from last year. Matthew Stockman/Allsport 
Life got much easier for Houston's opponents when the Astros continued their off-season tradition of losing their No. 1 starter. Lefthander Mike Hampton, last year's Cy Young runner-up, was traded to the Mets in December. Houston received quality players in return -- speedy centerfielder Roger Cedeño and promising young starter Octavio Dotel -- but replacing Hampton in the rotation will be pretty much impossible. He won 22 of his 34 starts in 1999, and the Astros' overall record in those games was 29-5. "Every year we've had to deal with key losses," Dierker says. "We lost Darryl Kile [to free agency] in 1997, and we still pitched all right. We lost Randy Johnson [also to free agency] the next year, and we pitched all right. I don't think we'll throw in the towel."

New staff ace Jose Lima was 21-10 with a 3.58 ERA last season, but the 27-year-old righthander wore down in the second half, when he was 8-6 with a 4.04 ERA, nearly a run higher than his first-half figure (3.23). He also gave up 30 homers for a second straight year, including 16 to righthanded hitters. Those are troubling numbers for someone who's leaving the spacious comfort of the Astrodome for new Enron Field and its 315-foot leftfield line. "I'm going to give up home runs no matter where I pitch," says Lima. "But I don't think I won 21 games because I was lucky."

After Lima and righthander Shane Reynolds (16 or more victories in three of the last four seasons), the staff drops off precipitously, so much so that 35-year-old Dwight Gooden, a nonroster invitee after putting up a grotesque 6.26 ERA for the Indians in 1999, has pitched his way into the rotation. He'll have to help keep the Astros afloat until fireballing righthander Scott Elarton is ready to return from off-season shoulder surgery, which the team hopes will be sometime in May.

"Everyone's asking how our pitching is going to contain all the hitters in our division," Hunsicker says. "My question is, Is there a staff that can contain our lineup?"

If everyone stays healthy, the answer is no, but the odds of that happening are longer than the ZZ Top beard first baseman Jeff Bagwell has been sporting in camp. Outfielders Moises Alou and Richard Hidalgo both returned this spring from serious knee surgeries; they must produce as they did in 1998 (a combined .309, 45 homers, 159 RBIs) to make up for the loss of Carl Everett, the Astros' most consistent hitter in '99. Cleanup hitter Ken Caminiti had six homers and 25 RBIs in September after missing three months with a strained calf, but he chipped three vertebrae in October when he fell out of a tree stand while hunting quail. The spill did force him to stop his customary intensive lower-body weightlifting regimen, which in turn has given him more flexibility than usual this spring. "It might have been a blessing," he says. "Usually I can't move for two months." On the brighter side the top-of-the-order pairing of second baseman Craig Biggio and Cedeño is the league's best (94 stolen bases between them last year), and Bagwell, even if his beard reaches his navel, is a lock for 40 homers and 120 RBIs.

Last year Dierker worked magic despite injuries. "We had infielders in the outfield, outfielders in the infield, minor leaguers in the majors," the manager says. But can he repeat that success if his every-day players start falling like quail again? After all, the Astros only won the Central by a game and a half over a Reds team that has since taken on Ken Griffey Jr. While that isn't yet reason for outright panic, it is certainly cause for alarm.

Issue date: March 27, 2000


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