Fantasy insider
Things to think about before Draft Day
Posted: Friday March 26, 1999 08:16 PM
By Dan George, CNN/SI With Opening Day still some
days away, you probably haven't had your fantasy draft yet. If you have, a
moment of silence for whoever paid too much for Matt Morris or
John
Wetteland. For the rest of us, the fun of building a fantasy
contender for 1999 is just beginning. Questions abound: Who's hurt? Who's
primed for a monster year? Who overachieved last season? Who's a good
sleeper? But they all boil down to just two: Who to draft? And (if you're
in a keeper league) who to protect? We'll talk names next week.
Today, it's Draft Day strategy. But first, some suppositions. We'll assume
you're playing in a league with an auction, in which each team bids for
players from a pre-established budget (most commonly $260).
Rotisserie or head-to-head? Doesn't matter. But ideally, you're in an
AL-only or NL-only league with 10 to 12 teams. Any fewer, and you're
gunning down web-footed fowl in that proverbial barrel. Where's the
challenge in a league full of All-Star teams? And please forget about
mixing AL and NL players. Different leagues, different games. End of story.
OK, back to Draft Day. How do you prepare? The answer is trite, but
that don't mean it ain't true: Study, study, study. Find out all you can
about the players, especially the non-stars, from newspapers, magazines,
television and sports Web sites, such as CNNSI.com. Everybody knows what Ken Griffey
Jr. will do -- but what about Olmedo Saenz? Which brings us to
strategy. Every league has different rules, and that means different
philosophies. But here are some general thoughts: Know what
each player is worth -- but be prepared for surprises. This time of year,
fantasy publications and Web sites are crammed with player value lists.
Geekier - and I mean it in a good way -- team owners even devise their own
formulas. That's fine, as long as everybody is on the same page. But all it
takes is two goofballs bound and determined to have Mike Piazza, and
suddenly a player you know is worth only $35 is shooting past 40 bucks.
Only you can decide when to go to the wall for a player and when to pass.
Spend more on hitting than pitching. Maybe twice as much.
Hitters are simply more consistent from year to year, while even the best
starters -- with the possible exception of Greg Maddux --
are a crapshoot. Barry Bonds is a
lock; Roger
Clemens is not. Just ask anyone who owned him from 1993 to 1996, when
he was a very mortal 40-39. Closers are more reliable, but just barely. See
Jose Mesa.
Pitchers, as an owner in my league has moaned more than once, are nothing
but heartache and pain. By the same token, don't fall in love
with superstars. It's nice to have A-Rod, Mo, Mac or Sammy on your team,
but at what cost? Would you be better off shelling out $40 for Frank Thomas or
the same amount on Tino Martinez
PLUS Rusty
Greer? (My AL-only league is in its seventh season, and Ken Griffey Jr.
has yet to be on a championship team.) An exception: If you're in a keeper
league and already have a solid base of undervalued players, as well as a
couple of extra bucks to spend, somebody like Larry Walker
could be the cherry on the sundae. Focus on positions where
the talent pool is deep. As a second baseman, Jeff Kent is an
outstanding hitter. But Ray Lankford,
because of his speed, is even better -- and he'll usually cost less than
Kent. Because there are many good-hitting outfielders, rival bidders may
wait for, say, Brian Jordan or
Dante
Bichette. There are fewer second basemen, so the good ones are more
likely to be overvalued. Make minimum bids on players you
don't want -- then shut up. Get the others to spend money and fill roster
positions, so you'll have a better chance of getting the player you want
later on. Some owners like to drive up the bidding, but it's a dangerous
game. That's how you wind up with Dan Wilson for
$18 -- then watch someone else later sneak Todd Greene
through for $5. Follow the rookies, but be careful about the
hype. Yeah, Ben Grieve was all that and a bag of chips last season. But
1997's darling, Todd Walker,
endured a miserable rookie season before blossoming in '98. Rookies are
unpredictable, so don't overspend. Better to be wrong for $5 than $25. And
if you're right, even better. Pay attention to the rhythm of
the draft. Players are most likely to be overvalued at the beginning, when
the big names fly fast and furious and everyone has money to burn, and near
the end, when desperate bidding wars erupt for the remaining quality
players. Bargains occur most often in the middle third of the draft, while
people are still dizzy from the initial spending binge, and at the very
end, when most people only have a buck or two to spend. This is when going
that extra dollar can pay off big. Know your competition and
how they like to bid. It's like poker; everybody has a different style. If
you know who can be bluffed and who can't, who can't wait to spend money
and who likes to wait, you're ahead of the game. Finally, have fun.
Not too much, though. A few years ago, an owner in my NL-only league
enthusiastically bid $20 for Mike Schmidt. Perhaps too enthusiastically.
Two bad things happened. He knocked over the can of malted refreshment at
his elbow. And two months later, Schmidt retired. Dan George, a
senior producer at CNN/SI, has played fantasy baseball since 1985.
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