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Fantasy Insider

Sizzlin' and fizzlin' in the Junior Circuit

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Posted: Sunday May 30, 1999 05:19 PM

Bell is on pace to hit 45 homers this season. Otto Greule Jr./Allsport

By Dan George, CNN/SI

OK, so you think the Immaculate Conception is easier to explain than David Bell's 13 home runs. You wonder just exactly when did Gregg Jefferies start doing a Mario Mendoza impression. And will Tony Fernandez really become the first batting champ with an AARP card?

Worthy topics all. Let's discuss them and more as we examine some of the American League's early season hits and misses. All stats are through games of Thursday, May 27.

Wilson Alvarez, P, Devil Rays: Even if he didn't have a tidy 3.29 ERA and wasn't holding enemy hitters to a .227 batting average, Alvarez would be the Rays' ace. Hey, he's about the only starter who hasn't filed a health insurance claim. But there are warning signs: His WHIP is up sharply to 1.51 this season, largely because of an unusually high number of walks, and he does have a tendency to fade in August.

Garret Anderson, OF, Angels: Solid but unappreciated, Anderson is on his way to a career year, hitting .302 with 11 homers and 29 RBIs. Mo Vaughn is the only Angel with better numbers. Injuries to Tim Salmon and Jim Edmonds have certainly contributed to that fact, but at just 26, Anderson is quietly becoming something special.

Rolando Arrojo, P, Devil Rays: The former Cuban national team star went on the DL this week, but his numbers were hurting a long time before that. Opponents had 68 hits in 48 innings, including 11 homers, resulting in a 7.31 ERA. Given that his struggles actually go back to the last half of '98, be cautious in taking a chance on the 31-year-old (maybe) right-hander.

James Baldwin, P, White Sox: His numbers have steadily gotten worse since he was the AL's Rookie Pitcher of the Year in 1996, and this year is no exception. His 6.36 ERA is a full run over his career average, his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. A ray of hope: He tends to finish strongly.

David Bell, 2B, Mariners: Good bloodlines, but even granddad Gus and dad Buddy never hit 45 homers in a season, which is what Seattle's sudden slugger is on a pace to do. Amazing, since his career high of 18 came five years ago in Class AAA Charlotte. He could be the second coming of Davey Johnson, but color me skeptical.

Tony Clark, 1B, Tigers: Another guy who's hurt, Clark was batting just .212 with four homers and 21 RBIs before going on the DL. But as anybody who had him last year knows, you have to be patient. Clark also had a miserable start in '98 before finishing at .294, 34, 103.

David Cone, P, Yankees: Maybe we shouldn't be surprised by Coney's 4-2 record and 2.14 ERA. Good team, good pitcher, and he did win 20 last season. But he's turned it up another notch this spring, giving up just 37 hits in 59 innings, while fanning 45. And he gets even better down the stretch.

Jeff Fassero, P, Mariners: This lefty has given up less than a hit per inning over his career, but this season he's surrendered a whopping 88 in 66 2/3 innings. That translates to a 7.49 ERA -- more than double his lifetime 3.40. Given that he's 36, it's hard to find the silver lining.

Tony Fernandez, 3B, Blue Jays: Here are some numbers: .393, 2, 35, 30 and 36. You know the first one, and the next three are his homers, RBIs and runs scored this season. The last may be most surprising -- his age. Don't expect Fernandez to keep flirting with .400, but he batted .321 last year and it's apparent he's enjoying new life with his old team.

Troy Glaus, 3B, Angels: What a streaky hitter: 35 homers and a .308 average in the minors last year, then one homer and .218 in the bigs. Five homers and .344 in his first month this season, no homers and .105 since. When he gets hot again, it should be a doozy.

Roberto Hernandez, P, Devil Rays: Any other year and his 4.47 ERA might be cause for alarm. But his 15 saves and the general absence of healthy Tampa Bay hurlers should secure his job.

Gregg Jefferies, DH, Tigers: Oops. Another misguided move by Randy Smith. At his best, Jefferies is a guy who hits for average and little else. Now he's not even doing that. Jefferies has batted .207 this month -- and raised his season mark to .201. Expect the Tigers to eventually try to move him to his fourth team in two seasons.

Charles Johnson, C, Orioles: Once Johnson got the hang of AL pitching, he really got the hang of it, huh? A month ago, he was hitting .150 with no homers and no RBIs. Since then: 10 homers, 21 RBIs, and he's up to .270. At 26, he could be ready to step to the next level offensively.

Chuck Knoblauch, 2B, Yankees: Hitting just .181 with a .269 on-base percentage in May, Knoblauch is on pace to duplicate his subpar 1998 campaign. Knobber was The Man in Minnesota, but you wonder if the Yankee starpower has subconsciously prompted him to ratchet his game down a notch or two. Whatever, he's been a different guy since coming to the Bronx.

Fred McGriff, 1B, Devil Rays: A popular theory for McGriff's resurgence (.338, 13 homers, 34 RBIs) is the presence of Jose Canseco in the Tampa Bay lineup, and it makes sense. But McGriff is also showing renewed discipline at the plate. He's on pace to draw more than 90 walks for the first time since 1992 -- the last season he hit 30 homers.

Mike Morgan, P, Rangers: His owners were no doubt pleasantly surprised by this journeyman's 4-0 start. Since then, however, he's gone 2-4 with a 10.80 ERA. In the trade, we call that the other shoe falling.

Omar Olivares, P, Angels: There aren't too many other teams on which Olivares would be the ace. Well, OK, Tampa Bay. But his 5-3 record and 3.03 ERA make him a lonely beacon of hope in the wilderness of despair that is the Angels' starting rotation. (That sound you heard was a phrase turning.) Historically hits a rough patch in July, though.

Jose Rosado, P, Royals: Word out of winter ball was that Rosado had regained the form of his rookie season in '96, and his performance so far this year (3-3, 2.33) bears it out. One caveat: Seven unearned runs on top of his 15 earned indicate he's been dinged a bit harder than you might think.

Aaron Sele, P, Rangers: He's struck out 47 in 46 innings, but opponents are batting .345 against him and his ERA for May is a heart-stopping 9.33. Nevertheless, these are the Rangers, so he'll probably still win a dozen games.

Jeff Zimmerman, P, Rangers: This is some line: 3-0 record, 1.42 ERA, 31 2/3 innings, 12 hits, 28 strikeouts, five walks. Still, the most startling fact about this middle reliever is that he learned to throw his slider while pitching in ... France. Do I like him? Oui!