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 Fantasy Insider Making the amateur draft work for you, too
Posted: Sunday June 06, 1999 06:58 PM
By Dan George, CNN/SI For casual fantasy players, this past week probably wasn't much different than any other this season. Manny Ramirez knocked in a bunch of runs, Pedro Martinez struck out a bunch of guys and somebody on the Angels got hurt. (If you're counting, it was Charlie O'Brien.) But for the rest of us, especially in keeper leagues, the first week of June is always something special. That's when major league teams draft high school and college players in search of the next Ken Griffey Jr. or Roger Clemens. And pray to God they don't get the next Phil Nevin. Prospects, as I've mentioned before, are the lifeblood of successful keeper league teams. Just as the good major league teams do -- the Cleveland Indians are a classic example -- it's crucial to build around talented young players. Get 'em while they're cheap, and you can save enough money to go after an extra big-name, big-salary stud in your draft. Rookies and minor leaguers also have another purpose: You can trade them for established stars to help you down the stretch. A good example is a recent deal I made in my AL-only league. When my hitting went south for a couple of weeks in May, I fell into the pack chasing the first-place team and decided I had to so something while waiting for guys like Darin Erstad, Paul O'Neill, Troy Glaus and Matt Lawton to snap out of it. So I swapped Eric Chavez and minor leaguer Dernell Stenson for Manny Ramirez. OK, so I lose a struggling rookie and a Class AAA player, and gain the AL's most productive hitter. In a non-keeper league, this would be highway robbery -- with the shoulders, median and a couple of mile markers thrown in for good measure. But in our case it should help the other guy, too. First, largely because of injuries and a pitching staff that would make the Minnesota Twins cringe, he's a distant last, a couple of time zones behind the 11th-place team. Time to think ahead. Manny wasn't going to help this year and, given his $44 salary and the paucity of supporting talent, probably wasn't going to be protected next season. In our league, minor leaguers carry $5 salaries when they hit the majors. I still expect Chavez to be a star, and if Stenson, probably the Red Sox's best hitting prospect, is in the majors next season, the other guy will have them for a combined salary of $10. That'll leave him $34 from Ramirez's salary to spend on another big hitter or pitcher in the draft. Since he already has guys like Carlos Delgado and Shannon Stewart at cheap prices, he could really make a move. So the importance of prospects is clear, and there's no better place to start following them than the amateur draft. Patience is a must, since most of these guys are three or four years away. But not all of them. John Olerud went straight to the bigs, while Barry Bonds, Griffey, Erstad, Glaus and J.D. Drew had fewer than 500 minor league at-bats. This year, pitcher Jeff Weaver, a first-round pick in 1998, is already having a fine rookie campaign for the Tigers. Even the youngsters who take a bit longer can be worth it. A few years back, a guy in our league jumped on a 17-year-old shortstop from Miami, Fla., as soon as he was drafted. My first thought was: Seventeen? That kid's a long, long way off, and a lot can happen before then. But three years later, Alex Rodriguez was hitting .358 with 36 homers and 123 RBIs for the Mariners. With that, let's take a look at the first-round picks in this year's draft: 1. Josh Hamilton, OF, Devil Rays -- A five-tool high school star from Raleigh, N.C, who throws a mid-90s fastball, this 6-foot-4, 200-pound lefty is an even better hitter (.529 with 13 homers, 35 RBIs and 20 steals in 25 games) and would rather play the outfield. That's fine with the Devil Rays, who project him as a right fielder. 2. Josh Beckett, P, Marlins -- Compared, perhaps prematurely, to another hard-throwing right-hander from Texas, Nolan Ryan, this high schooler fanned 155 batters in 75 1/3 innings for Spring High School while compiling an 0.46 ERA. Fastball has hit 99 mph, and he also has a nice curve and changeup. 3. Eric Munson, C, Tigers -- A left-handed slugger who helped USC win the College World Series in '98, he's probably the best hitter in the draft and perhaps the closest to making the majors. Questions about his defense could put first base or the outfield in his future. Despite missing 21 games with a broken hand, he's hit .338 with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs so far this season. 4. Corey Myers, SS, Diamondbacks -- A high school prospect from Scottsdale, Ariz., Myers was somewhat of a surprise pick. Some scouts say he's too slow to play short, but the Diamondbacks like his bat (.560 with a state-record 22 homers). 5. B.J. Garbe, OF, Twins -- Could be the latest in a long line of fine young hitters the Twins are stockpiling, hitting .500 with six homers and 19 stolen bases for Moses Lake (Wash.) High School. An all-state quarterback who committed to Stanford, he says he'd rather focus on baseball. 6. Josh Girdley, P, Expos -- Another guy who went higher than expected, probably in a pre-draft deal to save the Expos some money. Whiffed 29 (wow!) in a 10-inning game this season for Jasper (Texas) High School. 7. Kyle Snyder, P, Royals -- The first college (North Carolina) pitcher drafted, Snyder was a potential No. 1 pick before tendinitis problems contributed to a modest 7.5 record and 4.04 ERA this season. Nice change and curve. 8. Bobby Bradley, P, Pirates -- A killer curve alleviates some concerns about this right-hander's slender (6-1, 170) build. Went 12-1 with a 0.38 ERA and 156 strikeouts in 92 innings for Wellington High School in West Palm Beach, Fla. 9. Barry Zito, P, A's -- Despite a so-so fastball, he struck out 141 batters in 96 innings for USC this season. The Rangers drafted the left-hander in the third round last year, but he refused to sign.
10. Ben Sheets, P, Brewers -- Some say this Northeast Louisiana right-hander was the top college pitcher available. Blessed with an excellent fastball and curve, he fanned a Division I-high 153 batters in 111 innings en route to a 14-0 record. 11. Ryan Christianson, C, Mariners -- Quick and flexible with a lively bat, he might be the draft's best overall catcher. Hit .507 with seven homers and 39 RBIs for Arlington High School in Riverside, Calif. 12. Brett Myers, P, Phillies -- Big (6-4, 210), aggressive power pitcher who's been likened to Curt Schilling. Went 8-2 with 0.80 ERA at Englewood High School in Jacksonville, Fla. 13. Mike Paradis, P, Orioles -- Clemson right-hander was a bit wild, but still won all six of his decisions this year. Throws a sinker and slider. 14. Ty Howington, P, Reds -- Was this 6-5, 220 lefty from Hudson Bay (Wash.) High School the draft's top southpaw? Some think so. He used a great curve and solid fastball to fan 116 in 64 innings, while walking just 18. 15. Jason Stumm, P, White Sox -- Three-sport high school star from Centralia, Wash., has a mid-90s fastball and great command on the mound. Could help out quickly. 16. Jason Jennings, P, Rockies -- Baylor lefty was the Big 12 player of the year (12-1, 2.15 ERA) thanks to a lively fastball and gritty, competitive nature. A Coors Field bonus: He can hit, too, batting .385 with 15 homers and 59 RBIs. 17. Rick Asadoorian, OF, Red Sox -- Boston will be ecstatic if this strong-armed, strong-hitting 18-year-old from nearby Whitinsville, Mass., lives up to whispered comparisons to Tony Conigliaro and Dwight Evans. 18. Richard Stahl, P, Orioles -- Rail-thin (6-7, 185) high school lefty from Newton, Ga., boasts a 95-mph heater and nearly two-strikeout-per-inning ratio. So of course he's been likened to Randy Johnson. 19. Alexis Rios, 3B, Blue Jays -- Toronto thinks this skinny 6-5, 185) 17-year-old from San Pedro Martin, Puerto Rico, will grow into a power hitter. Well, the Jays were right about Carlos Delgado. 20. Vince Faison, OF, Padres -- Lyons, Ga., product has the best speed among the draft's high schoolers. Good arm, too. 21. Larry Bigbie, OF, Orioles -- O's fourth first-round pick showed a nice combination of power and speed (17 homers, 21 stolen bases) at Ball State. Brady Anderson's heir apparent in center? 22. Max Ginter, P, White Sox -- Mississippi State right-hander started most of the season, but might be a better closer, his job with Team USA last summer. Best slider in college baseball. 23. Keith Reed, OF, Orioles -- Free-swinging, speedy Big East player of the year hit .405 with 17 homers and 14 stolen bases in the final year of Providence College's baseball program. 24. Kurt Ainsworth, P, Giants -- Another LSU pitching product, he had Tommy John surgery a couple of years ago, but bounced back to go 11-5 with a 3.44 ERA this spring. 25. Mike MacDougal, P, Royals -- Tall (6-5, 187), hard-throwing Wake Forest right-hander no-hit Duke this season on the way to a 13-2, 2.37 finish. 26. Ben Christensen, P, Cubs -- Stock undoubtedly dropped because of the beaning incident, but Cubs don't think he's a bad guy. At least, there's nothing bad about his 9-1, 2.40 ERA at Wichita State. 27. David Walling, P, Yankees -- Lanky (6-5, 195), Arkansas right-hander has a great sense of how to use his fastball, curve and change.28. Gerik Baxter, P, Padres -- Edmonds, Wash., high schooler was 6-1 with an 0.73 ERA this season. Great fastball, but needs to work on other pitches. 29. Omar Ortiz, P, Padres -- Another hard throwing right-hander, this one from Texas-Pan American. Surprised some by climbing into the first round. 30. Chance Caple, P, Cardinals -- Still rough around the edges, but he's plenty fast. Cards think the 6-5 Texas A&M right-hander has a lot of upside. Dan George, a senior producer at CNN/SI, has played fantasy baseball since 1985. Happily, he's only owned Phil Nevin once during that time. You can reach him via e-mail at dan.george@turner.com.
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