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 Fantasy Insider When it comes to pitching, don't cut out the middle man
Posted: Friday July 02, 1999 05:26 PM
By Dan George, CNN/SI I'm not going to say I hate Nelson Cruz, because that would be childish. And my dalliance in games of this sort and the occasional snicker from my wife notwithstanding, I like to think of myself as reasonably mature. For a man, anyway. And for all I know, Nelson Cruz is a perfectly fine individual, courteous to women, kind to children and scrupulous to a fault regarding his income tax. But I'll probably never really like Nelson Cruz, because he burned me. Big time. Fortunately, one of the benefits of this forum is being able to help others learn from my mistakes. That's right -- I'm not just jabbering about baseball, I'm performing a humanitarian service. Nelson Cruz has nothing on me. Anyway. Faithful readers know that I almost always favor a good middle reliever over a fourth or fifth starter. There are several reasons, which I'll get into in a moment, but suffice it to say that after conscientiously following this policy for the first 2 1/2 months of this season, I broke it a couple of weeks ago to sign Cruz. A man of weaker character might plead extenuating circumstances. Chris Carpenter, my most consistent starter, had gone on the DL, leaving me with a 2 1/2-man rotation (David Wells, Bartolo Colon and swingman Roy Halladay). Not what you want in a league that counts strikeouts as well as wins. Meanwhile, a couple of other guys had had reasonable success with the likes of Ryan Rupe and Tim Hudson. Enter Nelson Cruz. Perhaps you're familiar with him: Right-hander, Detroit Tigers, 26 years old. Didn't exactly conjure up memories of Walter Johnson during his only other major league appearance (in '97 with the White Sox), but I noted that his first start for the Tigers this season (one run, two hits, seven innings against the Pirates) followed a 7-1 mark with a 2.73 ERA at Class AAA Toledo. Hmmm. Maybe he'd learned something over the last couple of years. I took the plunge. First appearance, bang. Five earned runs and nine hits in 4 1/3 innings -- including a homer by Brian L. Hunter, for cryin' out loud. OK, that was Seattle, a good-hitting club. His next start would be against Oakland. Much better, right? Nope, you would have thought these guys had Mac and Jose back. Six runs in two-plus innings. Final score: 13-1. Suddenly, Paul Quantrill looked real good. I quickly -- well, as quickly as one can do anything with his tail tucked between his legs -- released Cruz and replaced him with the Toronto setup man. So, class, let me repeat the moral of this story: Fourth and fifth starters? Almost always bad. Middle relievers? Better than you might think. Here's why. The best ones can win five to 10 games over the course of a season, about the same number you'd expect from a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. Plus, they won't kill your ERA and WHIP like, well, a Nelson Cruz. And you may get a stray save or two, to boot. The downside? If you have too many relievers and your league counts strikeouts, you won't get enough innings to keep pace in that category. So how do you find the right ones? Well, first of all, middle relievers are probably the deepest free-agent pool category, since only those rumored to be in line for a closer spot are usually taken in the draft. There are plenty to choose from. Obviously, you look for a low ERA and WHIP. But don't stop with this year's stats -- check out the last three seasons, too. All other things being equal, focus on right-handers; they're more likely to pitch to more than one or two batters per game, and thus more likely to get a long save or be on the mound if their team rallies. Speaking of which, look for guys on good-hitting teams to increase those chances. Now let's take a look at some of the best middle men out there right now. Oops, wait a minute. First, a reminder to send me your nominations for the first half's hits and misses. Check last week's column for some suggested categories, or create your own. Don't forget to explain why you think your nominees deserve their awards, and be sure to get them in during the next few days so I can print the best in next week's column. OK, now for some relief. All stats are through Thursday, July 1.
American LeagueKeith Foulke, White Sox, 0-1, 3 saves, 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP -- Chicago's most consistent reliever right now, and scouts say he has closer stuff. Opponents are batting just .201. Doug Jones, A's, 1-2, 3, 2.73, 1.13 -- Yeah, he's 42, he throws junk and his closer days are behind him, but he's still fooling them most of the time. Steve Karsay, Indians, 7-1, 1, 2.63, 1.20 -- Ignore his unsightly numbers from the last couple of seasons; he was still recovering from a 1995 elbow injury while he was an A's phenom. Now he's back, and he's got to be loving that Indians offense. Graeme Lloyd, Blue Jays, 4-2, 3, 3.03, 1.08 -- The only AL lefty on this list, he's already pitched more innings this season (38 2/3) than he did all year with the Yankees, a situation that could bear watching. T.J. Mathews, A's, 6-3, 1, 3.89, 1.21 -- Has struggled since arriving in the McGwire trade of 1997 and Chad Harville's promotion to the big further clouds his closer-in-waiting status, but he's still having a solid season. Jose Paniagua, Mariners, 5-7, 1, 3.77, 1.52 -- Jose Mesa seems forever in danger of losing his job to this hard thrower, but Paniagua's control (27 walks in 45 1/2 innings) may be one reason it hasn't happened yet. Steve Reed, Indians, 3-0, 0, 2.81, 1.28 -- Solid sidearmer has regained the form that made him so effective with the Giants, but he's been virtually unnoticed in the league's best bullpen. Paul Shuey, Indians, 5-2, 4, 2.95, 1.26 -- And here's another Tribe reliever. Finally healthy, Shuey is again showing the closer potential that's intrigued scouts for so long. John Wasdin, Red Sox, 7-1, 2, 3.05, 1.04 -- Despite surrendering eight homers in 38 1/3 innings, Wasdin has shown excellent timing, routinely entering the game just before the Red Sox rally. Jeff Zimmerman, Rangers, 7-0, 1, 0.96, 0.53 -- There's everybody else, and then there's Jeff Zimmerman. Sixteen hits and nine walks in 47 innings, not to mention 44 strikeouts. Just exactly what did he learn while he was pitching in France?
National LeagueArmando Benitez, Mets, 0-2, 3 saves, 1.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP -- Sixty-seven strikeouts in 42 innings? Gotta think he looks pretty good next to Mike Timlin right now. Pedro Borbon, Dodgers, 2-1, 0, 1.86, 1.03 -- Another guy whose long struggle back from injury appears to be paying off. Opponents are hitting .147 against the lefty. Dennis Cook, Mets, 6-1, 1, 2.27, 0.86 -- Benitez's southpaw counterpart. With these two and Turk Wendell setting things up, you know one reason why John Franco has 19 saves. Forty-two K's in 35 2/3 innings. Scott Elarton, Astros, 5-2, 1, 2.75, 1.01 -- With a trip to the rotation in his future, this big rookie won't be on the list for long. Only Billy Wagner, the guy he's been setting up, has been more effective for the Astros. Alan Embree, Giants, 3-0, 0, 3.07, 1.05 -- Another lefty who has excelled in key one- or two-batter situations (29 1/3 innings in 34 games). John Johnstone, Giants, 4-4, 0, 1.91, 0.92 -- While not the strikeout pitcher that some of the others here are, with Embree he's given the Giants a formidable one-two punch in getting the game to closer Rob Nen. Rudy Seanez, Braves, 4-0, 3, 2.48, 1.14 -- At age 30, this former Dodgers phenom finally has his control down (12 walks in 36 1/3 innings) and gives the Braves another option should John Rocker falter. Scott Sullivan, Reds, 3-0, 1, 2.43, 1.06 -- At 28, he's regained his rookie form of 1997, giving up just 35 hits in 55 2/3 innings. Dan George, a senior producer at CNNSI.com, has played fantasy baseball since 1985. Under duress, he will admit he has a hard time keeping Dennis and Russ Springer straight. You can reach him via e-mail at dan.george@turner.com.
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