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Second-half seer

Poor September record threatens Pedro's bid for 30

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Posted: Thursday July 15, 1999 02:12 PM

To reach magic milestones, Pedro Martinez (left) and Manny Ramirez will have to keep the pedal to the metal in the second half. Brian Bahr, Vincent Laforet/Allsport

Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci shared his thoughts on baseball's second half in a recent talk with CNN/SI's Bob Lorenz.

Bob Lorenz: Seattle goes into the second half six games out. Can they make a run of it?

Tom Verducci: It's going to be very difficult, Bob, for a couple of reasons. No. 1, they are trying to get by with a very young pitching staff. That is going to be tough in a pennant race. The other thing is Texas, with its bullpen and schedule, is going to be very hard to catch. They play 45 of their last 75 games at home. They only have seven games on the road left against teams with winning records.

Lorenz: Look at the American League overall. It pretty much comes down to watching the Western [Division] race and the wild card race. Do you see any other teams jumping into in this?

Verducci: Well, there are two interesting teams to me and that is Toronto and Anaheim. With Toronto, they are in it, [then] they are out of it. Well, this week they are in it. They have won eight of their last 10 going into the break but they still need another bat. They are not going to get into the postseason with Craig Grebeck as their designated hitter. Anaheim [is] a little further out, six games back in the loss column, but they have the hope of Jim Edmonds and Tim Salmon coming back. Now they are going to start taking batting practice this weekend [and] could be back within a couple of weeks. I think they think they still have a shot and will hold onto Chuck Finley.

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Lorenz: Can Pedro Martinez reach that 30-win plateau -- is it achievable?

Verducci: I really don't think so. I would love to see that happen, but at this point it just seems impossible with pitchers going on five days instead of four. The other thing to remember is that Pedro Martinez's worse month is September. He is only 7-11 in September, partly because he doesn't have a big frame and tends to wear down.

Lorenz: Let's turn our attention to offense right now and another chase that is on is Manny Ramirez of the Indians going after Hack Wilson's long-standing RBI record. Ramirez with 96 at the break -- how about that record?

Verducci: Again, I just think that is so far out in the galaxy that it is unattainable. If Manny gets over 160 that is a fantastic year. The other thing to look for is that Cleveland machine could be and should be the highest-scoring team in history, bettering the 1931 Yankees.

Lorenz: Now back to pitching, Tom, and the story of shutting down hitters. And that would be Randy Johnson of the Diamondbacks going after Nolan Ryan's single-season strikeout record. But 383 -- that's a lot Tom.

Verducci: It is really a lot and, again, pitchers aren't starting as many games. Nolan Ryan started 41 games when he broke the record; Randy is probably only going to get 35 or 36. But with 211 right now, he is well on his way and I think he can break it.

 

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