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Posted: Monday October 04, 1999 12:40 PM

By Stephen Cannella, Sports Illustrated

Edges Hitting: Indians The first team to score 1,000 runs since 1950 Starting Pitching: Red Sox An AL-best 4.07 ERA, only AL rotation with fewer than 300 walks Bullpen: Even Beck, Lowe and Cormier make Boston strong; Cleveland's Karsay, Shuey and Rincon could be better Defense: Indians Gold Glovers Vizquel, Alomar and Lofton up the middle Bench: Indians With Cordero, Houston, and Sexson, more pop than most teams start Manager: Red Sox No one got more out of his players this year than Willliams

The INDIANS will win if: They can somehow solve Boston's only two stars, Pedro Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra. Beating Martinez in Game 1 would demoralize the Red Sox, who are counting on him for two wins if the series goes five games. Garciaparra destroyed the Indians this year with a .451 average, five homers and 17 RBIs; he lit them up in the 1998 Division Series as well. If he slumps, the Boston lineup becomes very ordinary.

The RED SOX will win if: Someone other than Tribe-killer Garciaparra and Troy O'Leary (103 RBIs) hits. The Sox figure to get at least one solid outing in the three games pitched by Bret Saberhagen, Ramon Martinez and Kent Mercker -- but whoever gives it to them will need some run support. Leadoff hitter Jose Offerman has to get on base, and someone in Boston's DH-1B rotation of Mike Stanley, Butch Huskey, Brian Daubach and Reggie Jefferson has to provide some pop.

Don't be surprised if: This is a tight, low-scoring series. Red Sox pitchers, who went 8-4 and limited the Tribe to a lower batting average (.236) than any other AL staff this year, have shown they can hold Cleveland's vaunted offense in check. Though Cleveland's starters aren't the most imposing bunch, it doesn't take much to keep the AL's sixth-lowest-scoring team down. If the firm of Alomar, Thome, Ramirez and Justice can turn these games into slugfests, pencil the Indians in for the ALCS.

X Factor: The Cleveland bullpen. The Tribe's rotation after Game 1 starter Bartolo Colon -- Charles Nagy, Dave Burba and Jaret Wright -- is questionable, so Mike Hargrove could find himself relying on the bullpen to keep the Indians close in the middle innings. Steve Karsay (who has had arm trouble), Paul Shuey and Steve Reed were all brilliant at times this season, but each has an ERA over 5.00 since September 1. Only Ricky Rincon (2.89) pitched effectively down the stretch. With quality starts no guarantee for the Indians, those four relievers have to put out the fires.

Prediction: Red Sox in five

Sports Illustrated staff writer Stephen Cannella will be contributing regularly to CNNSI.com throughout the playoffs.

 

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