With about 50 games left in the season, CNNSI.com's John Donovan takes stock of baseball's wild-card contenders and pretenders.
Make fun of the wild card all you want, you purists. But know this: In the five full seasons baseball has allowed a wild-card team into its postseason (the partial '95 season doesn't count in our books), half of the cards have had a better record than at least one of the division winners.
The absolute worst record for any wild-card team belongs to the '96 Orioles, who won only 88 games. But then there were the '99 Mets, who won a wild card-record 97 games (the Braves won 103 that year).
In all, wild card teams have averaged 92.4 wins a season. (Again, not counting that shortened '95 season.) Two of them ('97 Marlins, '00 Mets) have made it to the World Series. One, the '97 Marlins, won it all.
What we're saying here is that these aren't exactly slackers baseball is letting through its playoff doors.
Which brings us to our breakdown of this season's wild-card races. We've identified six teams in the AL and a whopping nine in the NL that could end up with the wild card.
Ninety wins might get you there, fellas. But aim for 92 or 93.
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Jason Giambi AP |
Up Front ...
If the A's, the way they've been playing lately (25-9 since the start of July, not counting Wednesday's game), aren't the favorites in the wild-card race, it's a photo finish. Right there with them will be either the Red Sox (on pace to win about 93 games) or the Yankees (aiming for around 96), whichever one doesn't win the East. That could leave the second-place finisher in the Central -- either the Indians or Twins (on pace to win around 91 and 90, respectively) -- out of the wild-card race altogether. |
Troy Glaus AP |
In the Back ...
The loser of the Central race could sneak in, but it'd take a colossal collapse by whoever finishes second in the East and a big-time stumble by the red-hot A's of the West. And a major el-foldo by all those teams is about the only way the Angels (59-54 before Wednesday's game) stand a chance. |
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Pedro Martinez AP |
Biggest Questions ...
Can the A's keep up this torrid pace? How much will Pedro Martinez's return mean to the Red Sox? What if he doesn't return? Can the return of Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez spark the Yankees to another pennant? Can the Twins stop the leaks and get Brad Radke healthy (he's now on the 15-day disabled list)? Will the Indians' pitching (4.94 ERA since the break, before Wednesday) come around?
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Kenny Lofton AP |
Look Out Ahead ...
The Indians' schedule is brutal this month. They still have 17 games with the Twins (four), Angels (three), A's (four), Mariners (three) and Red Sox (three). They're just hoping to get to September alive.
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Eric Milton AP |
Coasting ...
The Twins have just five games against contenders the rest of this month. August should be a feast: seven games against the Devil Rays, six against the Royals, five against the Blue Jays and three against the Rangers, all of them with losing records. But, you know, there's that little thing about the Twins' 8-18 record since the break. If they get to September OK, the Twins' final month seems manageable. It features five against the Angels and six against the Indians (though Cleveland is 7-2 against the Twins ).
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| CNNSI.com's Absolute Best Guess ... |
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Pennant winners: Yankees, Twins (a hunch that Tom Kelly will steady his young team, the pitching will kick in and the schedule will help), Mariners. Wild card: A's over Red Sox.
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Barry Bonds AP |
Up Front ...
Because no one's a lock for a pennant -- unlike the Mariners in the AL -- there are at least six teams and maybe as many as nine with a chance to squeak into the playoffs as a wild card. If the current leaders in each division (Braves, Cubs and Dodgers) stick -- and that's as likely to happen as the Brewers getting in -- the most dangerous wild-card hopefuls would be the Astros, Diamondbacks and Giants.
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Randy Wolf AP |
In the Back ...
The Phillies have faded in the second half (12-14) and have a young pitching staff, not something you want in a playoff push. Same goes for the Marlins (now just 57-56). The Cardinals (57-55) have the look of a .500 team, too, simply not good enough for the playoffs.
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Roy Oswalt AP |
Biggest Questions ...
Can the Phils, just two back in the East, put anything together with that baby pitching staff? Do the Braves have enough hitting to hold onto the East lead or, at least, the wild card? Will a crippled Cliff Floyd (.342, 28 homers, 90 RBIs) finally cripple the Marlins' chances? Why can't the Cubs hit (.242 since the break), and will that ever come back to burn them? And how come the Astros, with that lineup and all that young pitching, can't pull ahead of the Cubs? Will the Dodgers finally succumb to a season full of hard knocks? Can the fading D'backs (winners of four of their last 12) make one more run? Can anyone stop the Giants -- other than the Reds, we mean?
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Cliff Floyd AP |
Look Out Ahead ...
The Marlins have 18 games against contenders --three each with the Cards, D'backs, Astros, Giants, Dodgers and Cubs -- this month. They could be done by the time the calendar flips. Next month could be cruel to the Braves, who must get through 19 games with contenders. Fourteen of them are with the Phillies (they're 7-5 against them this season) and Marlins (5-7). The Astros, too, face an uphill climb in September: Nineteen games against contenders, 13 of those against the Giants and Cubs (though the Astros are 5-2 vs. the Cubs).
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Randy Johnson AP |
Coasting ...
Well, no one has it easy. But the D'backs have the fewest games against contenders in September, with 10. Trouble is, three are with the Giants and the other seven are with the Dodgers.
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| CNNSI.com's Absolute Best Guess ... |
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Pennant winners: Braves, Astros, Giants. Wild card: Cubs, with 93 wins, edge out Dodgers and D'backs.
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