Burnett is filthy, but he's made more than 21 starts only once since '02 -- one of the symptoms of a thin rotation. AP
	FAST FACTS MANAGER JOHN GIBBONS fifth season with Blue Jays Team Page | 2007 Schedule THE NUMBERS        LIE | DON'T LIE 199 Home runs that the Blue Jays hit last season, a major-league-best increase of 63 from 2005. Don't expect a drop-off this season -- not with the addition of designated hitter Frank Thomas, a free-agent acquisition from Oakland. He mashed 39 home runs with the A's in '06, more than any Blue Jay hammered. CONSIDER THIS Alexis Rios bounced back from a disappointing 2005 by playing the best baseball of his career in the first three months of '06, then missed a month with a staph infection in his left leg. Before the injury Rios had been turning on the ball and driving it, hitting 15 of his 17 homers and slugging .585. After he returned on July 28, however, Rios slugged .411 the rest of the way. His plate discipline indicators also nose-dived after his return, with 42 strikeouts and 11 walks in 180 at bats. It's difficult to evaluate a player whose season was so clearly affected by an injury, but the fact that Rios reverted to his '05 approach at the plate is a concern. This may be a chance for the Jays to sell high, using Rios, 26, as a trade chip to upgrade their rotation or middle infield. Reed Johnson could move to right, making room in left for Adam Lind, 23, who has hit at least .310 at each of his four minor league stops. BATTING ORDER POS. PLAYER B-T PVR BA HR RBI SB LF REED JOHNSON R 201 .319 12 49 8 1B LYLE OVERBAY L 93 .312 22 92 5 CF VERNON WELLS R 25 .303 32 106 17 DH FRANK THOMAS R 41 .270 39 114 0 3B TROY GLAUS R 50 .252 38 104 3 RF ALEX RIOS R 86 .302 17 82 15 C GREGG ZAUN S-R 155 .272 12 40 0 2B AARON HILL R 249 .291 6 50 5 SS ROYCE CLAYTON R 297 .258 2 40 14 BENCH POS. PLAYER B-T PVR BA HR RBI SB C-1B JASON PHILLIPS R 377 .250 0 6 0 INF JASON SMITH L-R 304 .263 5 13 3 ROTATION THROWS PITCHER PVR W L K WHIP ERA RH ROY HALLADAY 6 16 5 132 1.10 3.19 RH A.J. BURNETT 69 10 8 118 1.30 3.98 LH GUSTAVO CHACIN 108 9 4 47 1.47 5.05 RH JOHN THOMSON 181 2 7 46 1.56 4.82 RH TOMO OHKA 192 4 5 50 1.37 4.82 BULLPEN THROWS PITCHER PVR W L S WHIP ERA LH B.J. RYAN 16 2 2 38 0.86 1.37 RH JASON FRASOR 147 3 2 0 1.28 4.32 RH VICTOR ZAMBRANO 268 1 2 0 1.69 6.75

General manager J.P. Ricciardi had no difficulty adding clout to his lineup the last two off-seasons, having imported Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay to help form, along with Vernon Wells, as lethal a 2-3-4-5 combo as any in the American League.

As for beefing up the pitching staff? That's a different matter. The top of the rotation, Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, was superior to that of the Red Sox and the Yankees in 2006 by most key measures (strikeout rate, innings per start, base runners allowed). The rest of it, however, is a wasteland. Permitted to increase his budget from $72 million to $90 million over the winter, Ricciardi made generous offers for C-list hurlers Ted Lilly (Toronto's third starter last year) and free-agent Gil Meche but lost out on both. Though the Cubs and the Royals wildly overpaid for Lilly (four years, $40 million) and Meche (five years, $55 million), respectively, that's small consolation for the Blue Jays' G.M., whose club will have to win some 11-8 games to keep up with Boston and New York.

The four leading candidates for the three vacant starters' slots had a combined 16 big league wins and a 5.36 ERA last year. Toronto would benefit greatly from a bounce-back season by talented 26-year-old lefty Gustavo Chacin, who missed most of last season (elbow and forearm injuries) after a strong rookie year in 2005 (13-9, 3.72 ERA). Odds are against it, though. Since 1995 eight pitchers have thrown 200 innings in their rookie years, as Chacin did, and only Freddy Garcia and Matt Morris even came close to regaining their first-year form. (And Morris missed almost two entire seasons before recovering.)

Then there's 33-year-old John Thomson, who battled finger and shoulder injuries last year, when he went 2-7 in Atlanta. Two-win pitchers at the end of their careers, especially ones coming off injuries, are usually nonroster guys hoping to get a start or two in the spring. The Blue Jays, though, want Thomson to start 30 games and stare down Manny Ramirez at Fenway Park. The two other veterans in the mix are journeyman righthander Tomo Ohka and righty Victor Zambrano, who has already achieved a modicum of fame in the AL East as the answer to the trivia question, For whom did the Devil Rays obtain Scott Kazmir?

"We tried to add as much bulk as we could to the rotation in Thomson, Ohka and Zambrano, trying to find a way to replace Lilly's 180 innings," Ricciardi says. "That's easier said than done, but what we have to keep in mind is that Boston and New York have the same kinds of questions about their rotations, too."

Really? Let's take a look at the third starters for the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays, respectively: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Mussina, Gustavo Chacin. Fourth starters: Jonathan Papelbon, Kei Igawa, John Thomson. Fifth starters ... you get the point. Toronto may give the veterans the first shots in the rotation, but don't be surprised if the club turns to promising young arms, such as righthanders Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum (both of whom averaged more than a strikeout per inning at Triple A Syracuse), if things aren't going well after the first month. "What we break camp with is not necessarily going to be our team come May," acknowledges manager John Gibbons.

"We all know what's going on," Thomson says. "We can win 90 games and make the playoffs, but the starters are going to have to keep us in games."

Catcher Gregg Zaun has it all figured out. "If Doc [Halladay] and A.J. are both five games over .500, which we expect, and the rest of our guys pitch .500 ball, that should get us to around 92 wins," he says. "That ought to be good enough for the playoffs."

We'll check his math come September. -- -- Peter King

Issue date: March 26, 2007