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MLB Baseball Scouting Reports

New York Yankees

SI Prediction: 1st in AL East
Heat's On Chamberlain brought fire and his 98-mph fastball to the pen last year; he'll do the same in '08 -- for at least the first two months.
Heat's On Chamberlain brought fire and his 98-mph fastball to the pen last year; he'll do the same in '08 -- for at least the first two months.
John Biever/SI
FAST FACTS
New York Yankees MANAGER JOE GIRARDI
first season with New York
Team Page | 2008 Schedule
THE NUMBERS LIE | DON'T LIE
20
Wins after the All-Star break by Chien-Ming Wang over the last two seasons, the highest total in the majors. But the 27-year-old righthander is no one-half wonder. During those seasons his first- and second-half splits are very similar in wins (18 pre-All-Star break and 20 postbreak), ERA (3.71 and 3.61), opponents' batting average (.266 and .277), OBP (.317 and .328) and slugging percentage (.365 and .380).
CONSIDER THIS
Nobody would mistake former Yankees manager Joe Torre for an avant-garde baseball strategist. Twice last season, however, Torre used lefthanded starter Andy Pettitte in relief on his throwing days, which are typically scheduled for the midpoint between starts. Pettitte (left) did not surrender a hit in either of those one-inning stints. That strategy might provide the perfect solution to New York's inevitable middle-relief issues. The innings of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy will be tightly regulated, and veteran Mike Mussina is barely a six-inning pitcher anymore, so middle relief -- a Yankees shortcoming in recent years -- will be crucial. By using starters such as Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang out of the bullpen on their throwing days, manager Joe Girardi can effectively add another good arm to his pen.
BATTING ORDER
POS. PLAYER B-T PVR BA HR RBI SB
LF JOHNNY DAMON L 110 .270 12 63 27
SS DEREK JETER R 62 .322 12 73 15
RF BOBBY ABREU L-R 40 .283 16 101 25
3B ALEX RODRIGUEZ R 1 .314 54 156 24
1B JASON GIAMBI L-R 166 .236 14 39 1
C JORGE POSADA S-R 48 .338 20 90 2
LF HIDEKI MATSUI L-R 100 .285 25 103 4
2B ROBINSON CANO L-R 64 .306 19 97 4
CF MELKY CABRERA S-L 207 .273 8 73 13
BENCH
POS. PLAYER B-T PVR BA HR RBI SB
IF WILSON BETEMIT S-R 230 . 229 14 50 0
IF-OF SHELLEY DUNCAN (R) R 252 .257 7 17 0
ROTATION
PITCHER PVR W L K/9 WHIP ERA
RH CHIEN-MING WANG 23 19 7 4.7 1.29 3.70
LH ANDY PETTITTE 41 15 9 5.9 1.43 4.05
RH MIKE MUSSINA 144 11 10 5.4 1.47 5.15
RH PHIL HUGHES 58 5 3 7.2 1.28 4. 46
RH IAN KENNEDY (R) 9 7 1 0 7.1 1.16
BULLPEN
PITCHER PVR W L S WHIP ERA
RH MARIANO RIVERA 15 3 30 9.3 1.12 3.15
RH JOBA CHAMBERLAIN (R) 110 2 1 12.8 0.75 0.38
RH LATROY HAWKINS 230 2 0 4.7 1.23 3.42

"How effective will the young pitchers be when they get to that seventh month?"

The last time the Yankees didn't qualify for the playoffs, in 1993, Spike Owen and Wade Boggs formed the left side of their infield and the Blue Jays had a higher payroll. New York has played in all 13 Octobers since then. And with another All-Star-laden team, this year will be no different. Winning in October, however, is another story.

The Yanks are 4-13 in their past 17 playoff games and have lost four consecutive series. They have been poorly built for October because they lacked young power pitchers, trotting out aging veterans and a young sinkerballer (Chien-Ming Wang) who pitches to contact. The average Yankees starting pitcher in those 17 postseason games was 34 years old, lasted only 4 2/3 innings and struck out three batters.

Now New York has an October remedy, a triple dose, in fact: Phil Hughes, 22; Joba Chamberlain, 22; and Ian Kennedy, 23. All of them are former first-round picks, but none of them have pitched a full big league season, which means what becomes of the 2008 Yankees comes down to one question: How effective will the young guns be when they get to that all-important seventh month? "All of our young pitchers have looked good so far," said general manager Brian Cashman midway through camp, referring not just to the three young guns but also to a crop of young hard throwers behind them in the bullpen and in the minors. "The only concern in camp has been [Mike] Mussina with his velocity being down, but he's a veteran."

To keep Chamberlain strong -- New York wants to limit him to about 150 innings -- the Yankees will use him out of the bullpen to start the season. However, he could make the transition to the rotation as soon as midseason. Should Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy each make 15 starts, still a good bet, it would mark the first time since 1911 that the franchise has given so many starts to three pitchers no older than 23. That year, the club, then the Highlanders, finished with a .500 record.

Only five clubs in the wild-card era have trusted 15 starts to three 23-and-under pitchers, and they all had losing records (the 1997 Royals, '98 Marlins, '99 Expos, 2003 Indians and '06 Marlins). And only four AL teams won a pennant with such a young staff: the 1913 and '14 Philadelphia A's, the '66 Orioles and the '85 Royals.

Run support for the kids won't be a problem. New York scored 968 runs last season, the most by the club since 1937, so even a slight decline is of no concern. Every key offensive contributor is back, including catcher Jorge Posada, who hit .338 (61 points better than his career average) in his walk year. Though he turned 36 last season, Posada was so impressive that he got a four-year, $52 million contract.

"I stayed locked in pretty much the whole year, but I also got lucky," says Posada, who batted .386 on balls he put into play last season, a huge spike from his .319 career average. "I probably shouldn't say this, because it's nothing against the pitcher, but there was one game against Jarrod Washburn [of Seattle] where I hit two balls as badly as you can hit a ball, and both times they just barely went over the first baseman's head for hits. [First baseman] Richie Sexson said to me, 'Wow, are you hot.' I said, 'No, just lucky.' "

New York does have age issues. Derek Jeter turns 34 in June, and Johnny Damon, 34; Hideki Matsui, 33; and Jason Giambi, 37, are all coming off down years. But with Giambi's contract ($21 million in '08) coming off the books this year, as well as those of Bobby Abreu ($16 million), Andy Pettitte ($16 million), Mussina ($11.5 million), Carl Pavano ($11 million) and Kyle Farnsworth ($5.5 million), the Yankees will have plenty of cash to chase such free agents as C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, both of whom turn 28 this year.

Getting younger, with a particular emphasis on power pitching, will keep Octobers in play for New York. Championships will depend on when the young guns are ready. -- Tom Verducci

Issue date: March 31, 2008

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