SI.com Fantasy Minors College Baseball Baseball

  Posted: Wednesday March 27, 2002 12:08 PM

There will be no topping 2001. Barry Bonds and 73 home runs. Ichiro Suzuki slapping and speeding his way into the sport's consciousness. The Seattle Mariners and 116 wins. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling and the Arizona Diamondbacks in an unlikely, unfathomable knuckle-biting seven-game World Series. A long goodbye for class acts Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn. Yes, the 2001 season will be a hard one to beat. Still, CNNSI.com's John Donovan says 2002 holds some intrigue of its own …
 
  Bud Selig - AP
What's Happening: Owners and players are still feeling around for each other's wallets, trying to figure out how to split the revenues in a $3.5 billion industry. There is good news, though. The courts in Minnesota have quashed commissioner Bud Selig's plans to eliminate the Twins and Expos, so they'll play this year. Both sides have vowed they won't walk out on the game. Nevertheless, the season will open without a labor agreement between the two sides, the Expos have become baseball's stepchild and rumors of a work stoppage around the All-Star Game in Milwaukee have become scarily persistent.

What Could Happen: Well, an in-season lockout or strike could happen, if you're a half-empty type. What also could happen is that the two sides could come to their senses, hammer out a way to split up all that dough, sign a multi-year labor agreement and make it work so that the Yankees can't buy up everyone they want. Ha ha ha ha ha ...

What Will Happen: OK. Really. This is no laughing matter. The longer this drags on, the better the chance something sad will happen. The owners announced earlier this week that they will not lock out players during the season or the postseason, and they said they'd not impose anything without the players' say so. The players, under the current agreement, really have no reason to whine -- unless the owners vow to do something after the season. Then the players might feel compelled to strike. One thing's for sure: Sooner or later, it's all going to hit the fan. Or the fans, as it were.

 
  Jason Giambi - AP
What's Happening: The Yankees, stoked by the acquisition (read "buy") of slugging first baseman Jason Giambi, are favored -- again. But the other divisions figure to be tight. The Indians have cut payroll and have come back to the AL Central pack, where the White Sox and Twins wait. The Mariners and A's figure to go at it again in the West (while a pop-heavy Texas team could make noise). In the National League, the Braves have won forever, though the trade-happy Mets will be better. The Cardinals are strong, but so are the Cubs and maybe the Astros, still. And in the NL West, the Giants and age-old Diamondbacks should go to the wire again -- if there's a wire there when September rolls around.

What Could Happen: Boston's Pedro Martinez and John Burkett (if healthy) could form a Johnson-Schilling duo to dump the Yanks, the Twins could ride their pitching to a title in the Central and the Rangers could outscore everyone out West. The Expos ... well, no they couldn't. But the Cubs, with Moises Alou in Wrigley, could win the Central. And the Giants might have enough to overtake the Diamondbacks.

What Will Happen: The Yanks will win. Again. The White Sox, with Frank Thomas back, will win a close AL Central fight over the hard-luck Twins. The Mariners, again, squeak past the A's, whose pitching carries them to the wild card, again. The Braves, with Gary Sheffield happy and producing, win the NL East. Yeah. Again. The Cardinals run away with the Central. And the still-aging Diamondbacks avoid slips in the shower and iron-poor blood to edge the Giants -- again.

 
  Randy Johnson & Curt Schilling - AP
What's Happening: Everyone figured on the Yankees last season, but few could see the Diamondbacks in the Series. But there they were, taking a 2-0 lead, dropping a close Game 3, getting their hearts ripped out in the ninth inning in New York -- in Games 4 and 5 -- fighting back to even the Series in a Game 6 runaway in Phoenix and then, improbably, beating ace reliever Mariano Rivera in an Arizona dust storm in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7. It still brings on the chicken skin. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were a combined 4-0 with a 1.40 ERA in the Series. Top that.

What Could Happen: Twins-Expos in a Contraction Classic. Red Sox-Cubs in a Where Have You Been Classic. Yankees-Braves in a Haven't We Been Here Before Classic. Yankees-Diamondbacks in a Haven't We Been Here Before Very Recently Classic. White Sox-Cubs in a Freezing Classic. Tampa Bay-Pittsburgh in a Hell Freezes Over Classic. A's-Giants in a Hold On To Your Seats Classic. Yankees-Mets in another Can I Have Your Seat Series.

What Will Happen: If the Yankees aren't where they want to be by the middle of the season, they'll buy whatever they need to get there. They are the Yankees. And they are (practically) unbeatable when it comes to the postseason. You have to pick them. So we see them in the Series against -- drum roll or rim shot, whichever is more appropriate -- goodness, any number of teams. The Cardinals, Cubs or Astros, the Diamondbacks or Giants, the Braves or the Mets. We'll take the Cards, on a hunch. And the Yankees in five games.

 
  Barry Bonds - AP
What's Happening: Well, they just keep on coming, don't they? Barry Bonds smacked a record 73 of them last season, a scant three years after Mark McGwire cracked Roger Maris' 37-year-old record. Luis Gonzalez, who never before had more than 31, slammed 57. Sammy Sosa hit 64, the third time he's had 60 or more, which no one else has ever done. The Dodgers' Shawn Green set a franchise record for homers, with 49. Texas' Alex Rodriguez hit 52, most ever for a shortstop. We still love the home run. But, sheesh, how long can we keep it up?

What Could Happen: We won't bet on Bonds' record not being broken, that's for sure. Granted, it looks untouchable. But c'mon, who saw last year coming? Here's why the record may be safe: Bonds did it with the best offensive season anyone ever had. No one can do that again any time soon. Here's one reason the record might not be safe: Bonds did it while walking a record 177 times. Another player who gets that hot (Sosa, maybe?) and swings at a few more pitches than Bonds ... yeah, it could happen.

What Will Happen: The record is safe, at least for this year. Expecting Bonds to top himself is silly. He homered every 6.5 times at bat. Expecting anyone else to get that hot is folly. Sosa has more protection in the lineup than ever, but he'll have to be content with another 60 or so. Bonds? He never before hit more than 49. He'll get into the low 50s this season, but without pending free agency to spur him on, that's about it. Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. (just 40 away from his 500th), Jim Thome? No, no, a super longshot and no.

 
  Ichiro Suzuki - AP
What's Happening: The most talked-about bat in the game doesn't belong to Bonds but to Ichiro Suzuki, the Rookie of the Year and AL MVP last season. The Seattle outfielder hit .350, had 242 hits (36 more than anyone in baseball), he had more than one hit in a game 75 times and he struck out once every 13.9 trips to the plate, best in the AL. Young Juan Pierre of Colorado doesn't have the bat control of Ichiro, but he can get the bat on the ball. He struck out only once every 23.6 plate appearances, best in the majors.

What Could Happen: Many expect Ichiro to have even a better year -- and he could -- but who hits sometimes isn't nearly as interesting as who misses. The Milwaukee Brewers set a record for strikeouts by a team last season, whiffing 1,399 times while becoming the first team ever to have more strikeouts than hits (they had 1,378 hits). Jose Hernandez had 185 strikeouts, four short of Bobby Bonds' 1970 record, while Richie Sexson had 178. With a new hitting coach (Gary Matthews), the Brewers aren't likely to be that bad. But there will be someone, somewhere, who could challenge Bonds' record -- Bobby Bonds, that it -- once again.

What Will Happen: Ichiro will spend much of the season over .350, Pierre will get a few more walks to increase his on-base percentage, players like Larry Walker, Jason Giambi and Todd Helton will continue to hit for average and power while strikeouts, once the bane of a batsman's existence, will continue to be epidemic.

 
  Mike Mussina - AP
What's Happening: Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling are the 1-2 punch everyone wants, but good, deep staffs in Oakland, with the New York Yankees, in Minnesota, Atlanta, Florida, Seattle and St. Louis give those teams at least a fighting chance. There were seven 20-game winners last season: Johnson, Schilling, St. Louis' Matt Morris, Oakland's Mark Mulder, the Yankees' Roger Clemens, the Cubs' Jon Lieber and Seattle's Jamie Moyer.

What Could Happen: By mid-season, high draft picks like Mark Prior (of the Cubs) and Dewon Brazelton (of the Devil Rays) will make their debuts, hoping to prove what the Astros' Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 1.02 ERA in three streets) and the Cards' Bud Smith (a no-hitter while going 6-3 with a 3.83 ERA) proved last season -- that they belong. Look for solid seasons again from veterans like Morris, Johnson and Schilling.

What Will Happen: Johnson will win his fifth Cy Young Award and another strikeout crown, while the Yankees' Mike Mussina, who outpitched Clemens last year in everything but wins, will grab his first 20-win season and his first Cy Young award. Former starter John Smoltz will close for the Braves, joining the ranks of the Yankees' Mariano Rivera, San Francisco's Robb Nen, San Diego's Trevor Hoffman, Anaheim's Troy Percival and Houston's Billy Wagner as one of the best in the business.

 
  Frank Robinson - AP
What's Happening: Jimy Williams is out in Boston -- remember? -- but he's in with Houston. Toronto's Buck Martinez is in, but for how long? Tony Muser is still around? Yeah, but the clock is ticking on him in Kansas City. Tom Kelly is gone in Minnesota, replaced by Ron Gardenhire, Grady Little has taken over in Boston for Joe Kerrigan (who took over for Williams in Boston last season) and Jeff Torborg has bolted from the Expos to the Marlins. The Expos, to be run this year by Major League Baseball? Hall of Famer Frank Robinson will call the shots there.

What Could Happen: Everybody but the Yankees' Joe Torre and Robinson could get canned -- hey, it's baseball -- and to tell you the truth, with George Steinbrenner calling the shots in New York, we're not completely sold on Torre's safety. Among those watching out: Charlie Manuel of the Indians, Muser, Davey Lopes in Milwaukee (those strikeouts mean a lot of poor fundamentals) and Jerry Narron in Texas (though his team will be better).

What Will Happen: Muser and his .426 winning percentage will finally get the pink slip. Martinez, as long as he keeps his guys playing, will not. Lopes will get fired, though few will notice. By mid-season, Robinson will wonder why he ever told Bud Selig he'd do this and Little will pine for Cleveland. Williams, curmudgeon that he is, will have his Astros fighting for a pennant come September.

 
  Hank Blalock - AP
What's Happening: You have to remember, everyone expected Ichiro to be good. Maybe not that good. But big things were expected. He was that good and more, capping his monstrous debut season with the AL Rookie of the Year award and the MVP. Not so much was expected from Albert Pujols, the St. Louis third baseman who surprised many -- his own team, included -- by hitting .329 with 37 home runs and 130 RBIs to win the NL Rookie award.

What Could Happen: Hank Blalock will be the starting third baseman for the Texas Rangers. He's got power, he's got skills, he's got Alex Rodriguez to his left. He also enters the season as the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award. As far as the NL, young third baseman Sean Burroughs has had a monster spring and the Padres think so much of him, they've moved both Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko to make room for him.

What Will Happen: Blalock wins the AL award, though A's first baseman Carlos Pena gives him a run. Burroughs cops the NL award, though pitchers Mark Prior of the Cubs, a mid-season call-up, and Josh Beckett of the Marlins will both show flashes of brilliance -- and flashes of rookieness.

 
  Cinergy Field - AP
What's Happening: Fans in San Diego and Baltimore saw huge parts of their past slip by when Tony Gwynn of the Padres and Cal Ripken Jr. of the Orioles retired last season. No one that important is retiring this season -- not that we know of yet, anyway -- though it always seems like Rickey Henderson's last year. That means the big "aloha" this year is reserved for an inanimate object, the concrete bowl once known as Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati. The home of the Big Red Machine gives way next year to spanking new Great American Ballpark. Please, control the tears.

What Could Happen: Henderson could finally get fed up and retire, though we're convinced he'll play to the ripe old age of 50 or so. There are a lot of older guys just an injury away from calling it quits, too, guys like Roger Clemens, David Wells, Matt Williams, David Justice and Andres Galarraga. As for Riverfront? There's no turning back now.

What Will Happen: We'll hear a lot from Johnny Bench and Joe Morgan and Tony Perez on the last year of Riverfront (now Cinergy Field). There will be ceremonies and a lot of questions about Pete Rose, maybe the stadium's most famous resident. It's a good thing, too, because what will be going on inside the old stadium won't be worth talking about.

 


 
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