Posted: Thursday August 01, 2002 10:50 AM
Updated: Friday August 02, 2002 10:28 AM
With the trade deadline now passed and the pennant stretch still ahead, CNNSI.com's John Donovan takes a look at the playoff contenders as baseball rolls into the final two months of the season. Click here to see the American League or to see the latest wild-card standings.
EAST
Atlanta Braves
What they have: The best pitching staff in baseball, with starters (Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Kevin Millwood et al) who give quality innings and a bullpen that is unrelenting (All-Stars Mike Remlinger and John Smoltz, who has 39 saves already). And all without any trades before the trade deadline.
What they need: Chipper Jones (11 homers) to find his power stroke, Andruw Jones (.253) to quit swinging at bad pitches, Javy Lopez and Vinny Castilla to generate some offense, Gary Sheffield to keep doing what he's doing and someone -- Matt Franco? -- to grab that first-base job and not let go.
Make or break series: A big lead in the NL East has practically assured the Braves of another pennant. Still, a 12-game road trip at the end of August (San Diego, L.A., Pittsburgh and Montreal) will show us something.
Playoff outlook: They're in. They now have the dominant closer they've lacked. More offense (they're hitting only .257 as a team) wouldn't hurt.
New York Mets
What they have: A lineup that is coming alive with Roberto Alomar (.338 since the break), Mo Vaughn (seven homers since then), Mike Piazza (.327 in the second half) and all. Al Leiter (9-8, 3.20 ERA) heads a staff that is fourth in the league in ERA (3.78) -- Pedro Astacio is 10-3, 3.08 -- and is strengthened by trades for Colorado's John Thomson and San Diego reliever Steve Reed.
What they need: A 200-game season. A slow start put the NL East title out of reach. The Mets hope a decent start in the second half (11-7), plus the added pitching, can help them make a charge at the wild card. To do that, they need Thomson, only 7-8 with a 4.88 ERA with the Rockies, to win.
Make or break series: The Mets close the season with three at home against the Braves (Sept. 27-29). It could mean nothing. Or it could mean everything for the Mets, who made the 2000 World Series as a wild card.
Playoff outlook: A longshot, but only because there are so many teams gunning for the wild card. The Giants and Astros are probably the biggest hurdles.
CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals
What they have: An explosive lineup (top 3 in average and slugging) bolstered by the trade for third baseman Scott Rolen. Add him to a group that includes Jim Edmonds, Albert Pujols, J.D. Drew, Edgar Renteria and Tino Martinez, and it's positively scary. Solid Matt Morris anchors a staff held together by spit and gum.
What they need: Still scrambling from injuries and Darryl Kile's death, the Cards are pitching-thin. Without Morris (12-6, 3.40 ERA) and rookie Jason Simontacchi (7-2, 3.33), they'd be nowhere. The Cards need help from ex-Indians starter Chuck Finley (2-0 in two starts) and a healthy Andy Benes.
Make or break series: The Reds are on their tail, and the wild card is anybody's at this point. They finish with 10 games at home, including three against Houston (Sept. 20-22) followed by three against Arizona (23-25).
Playoff outlook: Faves in the Central. The shaky pitching is a concern, but they have a solid closer in Jason Isringhausen and can bang with anyone.
Cincinnati Reds
What they have: A chance, despite it all. Though their pitching is suspect and their hitters sometimes don't hit, the Reds are still in the race for the NL Central crown. And no one knows how. Sure, Adam Dunn can hit (.294, 22 homers, 61 RBIs). Elmer Dessens and Chris Reitsma eat up innings. But this is a case where the whole is infinitely better than the parts.
What they need: Ken Griffey to get healthy and play like the old Ken Griffey. Ryan Dempster, acquired in a trade from Florida, and Brian Moehler, grabbed from the Tigers, to become aces. Sean Casey to get healthy and start hitting. And Barry Larkin to get back to his old self.
Make or break series: The Reds have seven games against the Cards in late August and early September. Gotta win there or the rest don't matter.
Playoff outlook: Sketchy. Even with Dempster and Moehler, the Reds' pitching is ugly. They'll fade -- probably. But, heck, they got this far.
Houston Astros
What they have: Hitters in Lance Berkman (.294, 22 homers, 87 RBIs) and Jeff Bagwell (.279, 18, 63). A staff that could be awesome (with Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller at the top). A good closer (Billy Wagner). And a good start in the second half (13-6) that has given them some hope.
What they need: Consistency. Daryle Ward hitting (four homers but just .231 in the second half). Craig Biggio (.267) surging. Lefty Carlos Hernandez pitching (he has a sore shoulder). Berkman, Bagwell, Oswalt and Miller keeping it up.
Make or break series: Four games in Houston against the Cards (Sept. 12-15), then three more in St. Louis (Sept. 20-22) oughta do it.
Playoff outlook: Iffy. This is a talented team that has disappointed from the start. But they've fought their way back into it. The question: Is it too late?
WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
What they have: Heck, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson won it all for the Diamondbacks last year. What more do they need? They stood pat at the trading deadline, electing to stick with a run-scoring offense headed by Luis Gonzalez and his 79 RBIs and three players (Gonzalez, Tony Womack and Junior Spivey) who have scored 60 runs each.
What they need: Someone in the rotation behind Schilling (18-3) and Johnson (14-4). And are the D'backs ready to trust Byung-Hyun Kim as closer again? They won't have much choice. A little power (the team is first in average but ninth in homers) would be welcome, too.
Make or break series: Three games against the Dodgers (Sept. 2-4) followed by four on the road against the Giants (Sept. 5-8) mark the last against the teams they'll be fighting for the NL West pennant.
Playoff outlook: Faves in the West. If they can get in, they're always dangerous. Especially in that first round. The trick is getting past the Giants.
San Francisco Giants
What they have: Barry Bonds (.345, 28 homers, 62 RBIs and 117 walks) and Jeff Kent (.335, 19, 64) and a new leadoff guy, Kenny Lofton, acquired from the White Sox, whom the two big guys can drive in. A deep pitching staff that has the second-best ERA in the league (3.69). Closer Robb Nen (28 saves) is pretty good, too.
What they need: For shortstop Rich Aurilia to get healthy (.258, only eight homers) and Lofton to provide the spark at the top of the lineup that they've been lacking all season. Bonds' hamstring is a huge concern. The Giants have to have him healthy to make a run in the NL Central.
Make or break series: Four in L.A. (Sept. 16-19), and a final three against Houston at home (Sept. 27-29) will tell us all we need to know.
Playoff outlook: Good. And if they make it, they can go far. It all depends on Bonds' health, Lofton's contributions and the pitching holding up.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What they have: A long road after a second half that has started 5-13. The Dodgers have hitters, mainly Shawn Green (27 homers, 92 RBIs) and Paul Lo Duca (.303). Lefty-swinging Tyler Houston (from Milwaukee) is a nice addition. The strength of the team, amazingly, lies in a patched-together pitching staff whose 3.77 ERA is the third-best in the NL. Paul Shuey (from Cleveland) solidifies a pen that features closer Eric Gagne (37 saves).
What they need: Kevin Brown back, and soon. Odalis Perez (10-7, 3.30 ERA) has been good and Kazuhisa Ishii (12-7, 3.87) a nice surprise, but Brown takes it to another level. Brian Jordan (14 homers, 47 RBIs) has not produced like the man he replaced, Gary Sheffield. A hot Jordan would help.
Make or break series: Seven games against the Giants in September (9-11 at Pac Bell, 16-19 at Dodger Stadium) will be huge for both teams.
Playoff outlook: A reach, especially if they play like this. The Dodgers have enough to stay in the race, but this second-half start is a killer.