Bubble Watch
A look at the NCAA's search for 64
Posted: Friday March 05, 1999 11:29 PM
ATLANTA (CNN/SI) -- If Murray State's buzzer-beating, Tourney bid-clinching Ohio Valley Conference tournament championship victory on Sunday didn't get you fired up for March Madness, perhaps you should click to the spring training roundups.
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5 Storylines to Watch
March 1-March 7 |
Pac-10 Flip-Flop
Cal hot; Washington not
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Least of the East
Rutgers NIT-bound; 'Nova will hold breath after Syracuse loss, but 'Cats still look good for a bid.
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Big 12 Scrum
Nebraska, Oklahoma State, K-State in dogfight
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C-USA Settling
L'ville looks good. UAB, UNCC are also in; DePaul drops to NIT
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WAC-kiness
WAC tourney will be wild. Tulsa has played its way to a bid. New Mexico must show more.
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And that's what makes conference tournaments exciting -- the unknown, the chance that an unlikely team (or league juggernaut) could earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament with a single shot. On the flip side, will anyone remember that Southeast Missouri State took Murray to the limit? Not likely. To the winner, glory. To the loser, memories of what could have been.
Early congrats to the first official invitations to the 1999 NCAA Tournament: Charleston, Creighton, George Mason, Mount St. Mary's, Murray State, Samford, Siena, Stanford and Winthrop. How about a Samford-Stanford first-round matchup to confuse the Tourney-pool newbies?
With that said, what can be expected of the major-conference tournament action picking up late this week?
In the ACC: Three bids are locked in (Duke, Maryland and UNC). But which other team will make the semifinals interesting? And can Wake Forest put together a run to lift the Demon Deacons from "Bubble" status to NCAA bid?
In the Atlantic 10: Rhode Island plays for the automatic bid, while George Washington, Temple and Xavier play for Big Dance seedings.
In the Big East: Villanova played its way into an NCAA invitation last week, but Rutgers needs a deep run to earn a bid. If UConn stumbles, is a region No. 1 seed on the line?
In the Big Ten: With seven teams lined up to get NCAA invites, Chicago hosts a mini-Big Dance. Michigan State is playing for a regional No. 1 seed. Purdue, Minnesota losses in first round shouldn't matter for bids, but fans will hold their breath.
In the Big 12: Kansas State, Nebraska and Oklahoma State are all playing for at-large bids, so this tournament will supply a sense of urgency. Early-round losses doom any of these three.
In C-USA: Louisville joins Cincinnati for invites. UAB and UNC Charlotte have seemingly played their way in to bids. DePaul's loss to UAB in quarterfinals was a killer.
In the Pac-10: Does this league need a tournament, or what? Cal sneaks in with a sweep at home vs. the Oregons. Slumping Washington gets the week off, then Saturday vs. nemesis Washington State, which would like nothing more than to burst the Huskies' bubble.
In the SEC: Five locks (Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee) mean that Mississippi State (18-11 overall) needs to get to the finals, period.
In the WAC: If Utah continues its scorching play and runs to the WAC tourney title, the Utes would deserve a regional No. 1 seed (they won't get it). Otherwise, Tulsa and New Mexico are looking to lock up bids with deep tourney runs.
Bubble update
With less than 48 hours remaining before Selection Sunday, here's a handy guide
to the haves and have-nots of BubbleWorld -- who's on, who's off, who'll go to
the Big Dance and who will settle for the
NIT.
Remember, 30 conferences get automatic bids for their tournament champions
(except the Pac-10 and the Ivy, which award the regular-season champ the
automatic invitation), leaving 34 at-large bids to be handed out by the NCAA
Tournament Selection
Committee.
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ACC |
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Projected Invitations: 4 |
| Locks: Duke, Maryland,
UNC
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| Skinny: N.C. State played itself off the Bubble in Sunday's 74-45 loss to Wake Forest. The teams meet again Friday in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Will the winner earn the league's fourth and final bid from the NCAA?
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The
Bubble:
Wake Forest
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Atlantic
10 |
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Projected Invitations: 3 |
| Locks: Temple, Xavier, George Washington
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| Skinny: Lofty preseason hopes
dashed by league-wide poor play. Rhode Island the poster child for underachievment.
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The
Bubble:
Rhode Island
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Big
East |
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Projected Invitations: 5 |
| Locks: UConn, Miami, St. John's, Syracuse, Villanova
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| Skinny: Down year? Hardly. The Beast
will land five bids. Plummeting Rutgers moves from long shot to NIT. Providence is NIT-bound.
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The
Bubble: --
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Big
Ten |
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Projected Invitations: 7 |
| Locks: Michigan State, Ohio State,
Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota
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| Skinny: Seven bids it is. Don't call 'em lucky; this group has earned it.
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The
Bubble: --
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Big
12 |
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Projected Invitations: 5 |
| Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
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| Skinny: The league tournament will be played with urgency by the teams still on the Bubble.
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The
Bubble:
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
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C-USA |
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Projected Invitations: 3 |
| Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, UNC Charlotte
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| Skinny: Weak C-USA ends up with just a couple of slots:
Cincy and resurgent Louisville. UAB and UNC Charlotte are in a good position. DePaul is not (or should we say, "NIT"?)
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The
Bubble:
UAB
DePaul
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Pac-10 |
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Projected Invitations: 4 |
| Locks: Arizona, Stanford,
UCLA
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| Skinny: Huskies needed at least a split vs. L.A. schools. UW got swept. Now the Huskies are in trouble. Cal is back in good Bubble standing -- despite a mediocre league record -- by beating both Arizonas.
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The
Bubble:
Washington
Cal
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SEC |
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Projected Invitations: 5 |
| Locks: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida
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| Skinny: Arkansas beats Kentucky and walks from Bubble to lock. Tennessee does the same by dispatching South Carolina. The others are on the
outside looking
in. Georgia's done. So is Ole Miss. Mississippi State is close to NIT-ville.
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The
Bubble:
Mississippi State
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WAC |
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Projected Invitations: 3 |
| Locks: Utah,
Tulsa
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| Skinny: One other will join the Utes and Tulsa. New Mexico (poor RPI) has the inside track, but can't falter until at least the conference finals.
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The
Bubble:
New Mexico
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Others |
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Teams from the "mid-major" or "small" conferences
usually have to win their postseason tournament to make it to the NCAAs. Here
are a few teams that have a shot at making the NCAA field with an at-large
invitation, if they don't win their league's tournament. (The formula to find
these special few is easy: a lot of victories plus a tough nonconference
schedule that includes a few wins over "quality" opponents -- teams
from the traditional power
conferences). |
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Evansville
Miami, Ohio
SW Missouri State
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Keeping us honest, here are the
numbers |
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39 invites go to teams from the nine traditional "power conferences" listed
above (nine automatic bids and 30 at-large
slots). |
| 21 other automatic bids go to mid-major- and small-conference tournament
champs.
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| That leaves us with a four-invitation cushion to give to a worthy
"Other" team -- a mid-major- or small-conference team with a gaudy
record and quality nonconference opponents -- that gets upset during its
conference tournament, or to be used following a freakish
power-conference-tournament upset that requires the kind of justice that can
only be dispensed through an at-large
invite.
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