Don't hand Blue Devils the title yet
CNN/SI users: Several teams could upend No. 1 Duke
Posted: Wednesday February 24, 1999 03:53 PM
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CNN/SI users' top
contenders
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Auburn
Ferocious defense and inspired offensive
rebounding.
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Cincinnati
Only team to beat Duke
already.
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Connecticut
Complete package: Size, speed and
depth.
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Maryland
Hard to beat a good team three times in one
season.
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Michigan
State
Gave Duke a tough game in December on a Cleaves
off-night.
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St.
John's
Tenacious Red Storm, now-healthy C Ty Grant would love a
rematch.
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Stanford
Size to negate Brand; Lee outplays
Avery.
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The Wild
Cards
Majerus, Olsen, Bennett crafty enough to outduel Coach
K.
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As part of his weekly College Basketball Mailbag, Sports Illustrated's Seth
Davis asked CNN/SI users to respond to the question: Who has a chance to beat
Duke in the NCAA
Tournament?
The response was overwhelming. It seems as though most fans simply aren't
willing to hand the title to Duke just
yet.
Below, we've published a sample of user analysis. Be sure to check CNNSI.com
regularly for more chances to have Your
Turn.
AUBURN
Auburn has the best chance of beating Duke in March because the Tigers match up
well with the Blue Devils. In my opinion, the first key (there are many) to
taming Duke is to neutralize Elton Brand on the low post. Although Mamadou
N'Diaye gives up a bunch of pounds to Brand, he is the preeminent shot-blocker
in the SEC and is one of the best defensive big men in the country. Add to that
the fact that the Tigers can afford to throw three centers at Brand (since David
Hamilton will be back by the SEC Tourney) and play aggressively without
worrying about foul trouble and you can see why Brand's presence affects Auburn
less than it would any other team. If Auburn and Duke eventually meet up, I'd
expect to see a very physical, SEC-type battle in the paint with Brand in some
type of foul trouble by the end of the first
half.
Moving away from the big men, you'd expect to see Shane Battier matched up
defensively on Auburn's Chris Porter. While I wouldn't be surprised to see
Battier give Porter some trouble finding an open shot, there is absolutely no
possibility that Shane can negate Porter's quickness to the offensive
glass.
When Duke is on the offensive, Bryant Smith would be matched up on Trajan
Langdon. For those who haven't seen the Tigers this season, this matchup would
be an eye-opening experience. Smith is probably the best defensive player in
the country and is usually matched up on the opponent's top scorer. At one
point this season (after the Ole Miss game two weeks ago), Smith had held his
men (who included the likes of Jumaine Jones and Keith Carter) to a total of 154
points below their season averages. Opposing players have a difficult time
finding open shots against Smith and that doesn't translate into a record night
for Langdon, who often takes advantage of his opponents' defensive weaknesses to
create wide-open scoring opportunities for
himself.
When you look at the guards, you have to consider Auburn's Doc Robinson. Without
a doubt the nation's most underrated point guard, Robinson boasts a 2.58
assist-to-turnover ratio, significantly better than any of the other
"top" point guards in the country. One can debate all day about who
is the best point man in the nation but it goes without saying that Robinson can
go toe-to-toe with William Avery (on both ends of the floor) as well as
anyone.
Remembering that Auburn's bench probably goes even deeper than Duke's and
understanding that Auburn's strengths (rebounding -- particularly offensive
rebounding -- and defense) are the most crucial keys to March success, you can
see why Auburn is not only the club most likely to give the Dukies fits, the
Tigers represent the team most likely to beat the Devils in St.
Pete.
-- Steve Colclough, Tuscaloosa,
Ala.
CINCINNATI
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Beating Duke at a
Glance
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Play physically on the
interior
Smother with man-to-man
defense
Rattle
Avery
Tire out Langdon to affect his
shooting
Draw fouls (pray for a tightly called
game)
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I think Cincinnati has the best chance of upsetting Duke because the Bearcats
have already defeated the Devils earlier this year. They even beat them without
Jermaine Tate. You know it would have to be on the minds of Duke that Cincinnati
may be the only team that can stop them. All of Cincinnati's losses came this
year when they were expected to win. If they ever take on Duke in the NCAAs,
they will be the underdog with no pressure and could come out with a
W.
-- James G.,
Minneapolis
UCONN
I like UConn's matchup with Duke, especially defensively. UConn's strongest
defensive players, guard Ricky Moore and center Jake Voskuhl, would match up
with Duke's top scorers, Trajan Langdon and Elton Brand. The Khalid
El-Amin-William Avery matchup could be a beauty. Khalid has come out on top in
his matchups with Mateen Cleaves and Arthur Lee, so he seems to rise to the
challenge presented by high-profile point guards.
Overall, UConn has defensive tenacity and team speed comparable to St. John's,
which gave Duke a lot of problems. While the Huskies fastbreak well, they are
far better in their halfcourt sets than Maryland which Duke beat badly twice.
The Huskies have more than enough depth to play with the Blue Devils, and the
benches will shorten in a close game deep in the Tournament. UConn/Duke could
be one of the great games in years and would be a very worthy Monday night
matchup.
-- Tom Marston, Higganum,
Conn.
MARYLAND
I think that Maryland has the best chance of beating the Blue Devils. Though
they have lost twice this year to Duke, the statistical probability of losing
three times to the same team when you are as talented as Maryland has to be
lessened. Similarly, I would have to think Maryland would be very motivated for
another showdown.
-- Dan Diamond,
Baltimore
MICHIGAN
STATE
In a one-game shot on a neutral floor, I'd say the team with the best
"shot" at upsetting Duke would be Michigan State. There are a couple
factors that give me hope: One, they have already played Duke this year and hung
tough (losing 73-67 in the Great 8) despite Mateen Cleaves shooting 2-15 and
starting the game down 24-2. This tells me that MSU could beat them if they
played a flawless
game.
-- Scott Yarmuth,
Tampa
To beat Duke, you must have balanced inside and outside scoring, plus excellent
guard play. Duke's major weakness is their depth at the point guard position.
The team with the best combination of inside and outside scoring, rebounding,
and defense in my opinion is Michigan State. MSU has the ability of receiving
offensive production from a variety of players. Starters Mateen Cleaves, Charlie
Bell, and Jason Klein can fill it up. They also have excellent depth with Morris
Peterson, Granger, and Davis coming off the
bench.
They previously played in December at the Great Eight. MSU out-hustled, and
out-rebounded the smaller Duke front line. They lost that game because they did
not receive balanced scoring at the guard position. That deficiency has been
resolved. Their new found offense and running game should cause Coach K fits in
March.
The real secret though to win in March is defense, and rebounding margin. The
Spartans are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They
are also near the top of the list in holding down their opponents field goal
percentage, and point
production.
The secret to stopping Duke is not controlling Brand, but Avery. When Avery is
not in the game, there is not a definitive player on their team that can drive
the offense. As what happened in the St. John's game, when Avery fouled out,
and Trajan Langdon was forced to bring up the
ball.
I look for Duke and MSU to meet during the semifinals of the
tournament.
-- David Mitchell, Kalamazoo,
Mich.
ST.
JOHN'S
Even though they've already lost to Duke, I think St. John's matches up very
well. Both teams are very athletic and play tenacious defense. Granted Langdon
had an off game in their first meeting, St. John's kept Duke in the game with
mediocre foul shooting. I have a feeling Duke doesn't want to get caught in the
Storm
again.
-- Joe McCoy, West New York,
N.J.
STANFORD
The team with the best chance of beating Duke has to be Stanford. Stanford has
a big front line that could contain (not control) Elton Brand, and assuming that
these teams are not in the same bracket Stanford would play them late in the
Tournament, which means that Trajan Langdon might be showing signs of fatigue as
he often does late in the
season.
-- Mark Norton, Lethbridge,
Alberta
WILD
CARDS
I don't think it can be done often. But if Duke can be beaten, it will be by a
team with a coach that is exceptionally good at preparing a team for a specific
game such as Rick Majerus of Utah, Lute Olsen of Arizona or Tubby Smith of
Kentucky.
It will also take a team that has a good floor leader and a great team spirit,
together with a great bench. This again points at those same teams along with,
of course, UConn. Arizona is very young, but those kids have
responded.
Finally, it takes a tradition of winning, of knowing what it takes to win... so
it takes some experienced guys who have been winners lead by a coaching staff
that knows how to pull them together in the final weeks of the
season.
All these reasons point to those four teams in this order: Arizona, Utah, UConn,
Kentucky. But if Duke comes to play, with their coaching staff having fully
prepared the team for what they are up against, it will be difficult for any
team to beat them this year ... unless that team is shooting over 60 percent and
is otherwise overplaying their
game.
-- Ray Bayles, Gallup,
N.M.
I think both Wisconsin and Utah could cause Duke problems. Both Wisconsin
and Utah are capable of playing smothering defense. Neither portends to be
able to match up offensively with anyone, and every player on Wisconsin and Utah
seems to understand that in order to win, you have to give it up on the
defensive side of the court. Additionally, Dick Bennett and Rick Majerus are
two of the best coaches in the game and come tournament time, coaches can win
games for
you.
-- John Sigman, Las
Vegas
DUKE
Can anyone beat Duke? I think the old cliche really fits here. The only one
that can beat them is
themselves.
-- Jim Dermody, Neola,
Iowa
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